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What happened with HG today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

HG in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Hamilton Insurance Group covers businesses’ property, liability and specialized risks, and takes on part of other insurers’ claims exposure through reinsurance. Insurance and reinsurance contribute broadly similar shares of premiums, its main revenue source. It earns underwriting profit when the premiums it retains exceed claims and the costs of securing and servicing the business.

Hamilton Global Specialty serves mainly medium-to-large commercial clients, while Hamilton Select covers smaller U.S. businesses with liability risks that are difficult to place. Hamilton Re primarily provides reinsurance worldwide. Much of the business reaches Hamilton through brokers: Marsh McLennan is its largest source, and together with Aon and Arthur J Gallagher supplies a majority of premiums. Profitability depends on pricing the risks accurately enough to cover eventual claims.

Hamilton also invests premiums before claims fall due. Investment returns provide a significant source of income, with a material portion of its assets in the TS Hamilton Fund managed by Two Sigma. Hamilton must maintain a minimum investment in that fund and has limited withdrawal rights, so it cannot freely redirect that capital.

Insurance regulation limits underwriting capacity and requires subsidiaries to maintain capital and liquidity. Hamilton Re is licensed or admitted only in Bermuda; some overseas clients therefore require collateral, making access to letters of credit or other security important to writing that business.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in HG’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

HG says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Hamilton Insurance Group’s results hinge on specialty insurance and reinsurance pricing and claims; Beazley, Hiscox and Lancashire are also important rivals to watch beyond this list.

  • Axis Capital Holders Limited and Hamilton compete for businesses buying specialty insurance and insurers buying reinsurance worldwide, including liability cover sold through U.S. wholesale brokers. AXIS’s pricing and claims on professional liability policies offer a read on conditions facing Hamilton’s liability business.

  • Arch Capital Group Ltd and Hamilton compete to insure specialty risks for businesses and take on risks from insurers through Bermuda, U.S. and Lloyd’s platforms. Watch Arch’s specialty insurance and reinsurance rates and losses rather than its mortgage insurance results for clues about Hamilton’s markets.

  • Everest Group, Ltd. competes with Hamilton for insurance customers and insurers transferring risk worldwide, using Bermuda and international operations and broker channels, including surplus-lines brokers. Its reinsurance pricing and losses are particularly relevant to Hamilton’s reinsurance-heavy Bermuda business.

  • RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. and Hamilton Re compete to take property, casualty and specialty risks off insurers’ books, and both earn fees for managing outside investors’ reinsurance capital. RenaissanceRe’s management and performance fees provide a comparison for Hamilton’s fee income from Ada Re, separate from underwriting profits.

  • W.R. Berkley Corporation competes with Hamilton for businesses buying specialized commercial cover and insurers paying to transfer risk through reinsurance. Its commercial insurance pricing is the more prominent comparison: insurance makes up most of Berkley’s net premiums.

  • Markel Group Inc.’s Markel Insurance competes with Hamilton for businesses needing tailored specialty cover and expert assessment of their risks. Watch its specialty underwriting profits rather than the group’s equity investment swings for a clearer comparison with Hamilton’s insurance business.

  • Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. and Hamilton Re compete for insurers paying them to share property, casualty and specialty losses, either in agreed proportions or above a loss threshold—proportional and excess-of-loss treaty reinsurance. Greenlight Re’s general liability and umbrella reinsurance results offer a concrete comparison for Hamilton Re’s casualty book.

  • White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd.’s Ark and WM Outrigger operations compete with Hamilton to insure specialty risks and take on catastrophe exposure from insurers. Ark’s catastrophe contract pricing and loss estimates are the relevant signals for Hamilton’s property reinsurance, rather than White Mountains’ other businesses.

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  • Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. competes directly with Hamilton Select for small and medium-sized U.S. businesses whose liability risks are hard to insure in standard markets. Its Small Business Casualty premiums give Hamilton investors a focused comparison for this customer group within the excess and surplus market.

  • Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. competes with Hamilton’s insurance platforms for businesses whose risks standard policies do not adequately cover. Watch Skyward’s U.S. tailored commercial insurance pricing and claims, especially its excess and surplus business, for conditions facing Hamilton Select.

  • James River Group Holdings, Inc. competes with Hamilton Select for small and medium-sized businesses paying to cover hard-to-place liability risks. Watch its primary and excess casualty premiums alongside any decision to cut business because prices or contract terms are inadequate.

  • American Financial Group, Inc.’s Great American businesses compete with Hamilton’s specialty insurance platforms for companies buying cover tailored to their business risks. Great American’s specialized commercial insurance pricing and claims are the relevant comparison for Hamilton’s insurance operations.

  • RLI Corp. and Hamilton compete for customers buying specialty property and liability cover assessed risk by risk, including hard-to-place U.S. excess and surplus insurance. RLI’s Mt. Hawley excess and surplus business is the closer comparison for Hamilton Select than RLI’s broader insurance operations.

  • Palomar Holdings, Inc. competes with Hamilton for customers buying specialty property and liability insurance, including cover in excess and surplus markets. Its casualty and property insurance pricing and losses are useful comparisons for Hamilton; Palomar’s earthquake line makes catastrophe claims another point to watch.

Agenda

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. earningsKNSL

    Kinsale Capital Group’s Small Business Casualty premiums and pricing will show how demand and competition are changing for the hard-to-insure liability customers it shares with Hamilton Select.

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. earningsRNR

    RenaissanceRe’s management and performance fees will show what managing outside reinsurance capital can earn, providing a comparison for Hamilton’s Ada Re fee business.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Everest Group, Ltd. earningsEG

    Everest Group’s reinsurance pricing and losses will show how prices and claims are changing in the market where Hamilton’s Bermuda business writes substantial reinsurance.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. earningsThis company

    Hamilton Insurance Group’s report will show whether premiums from its International and Bermuda businesses still leave underwriting income after claims and underwriting expenses.