PNFP in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with PNFP today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. serves businesses, their owners, professionals and individuals, mainly in the southeastern United States. Through Pinnacle Bank, it gathers customer deposits and lends to fund business operations, equipment, commercial properties and homes. It has completed its merger with Synovus, expanding its southeastern presence.
Borrowers pay interest, and the bank also earns interest on investment securities. After paying interest on deposits and other funding, the difference—net interest income—provides most of its revenue. Customers also pay for services such as deposit accounts, investments, insurance and trusts.
Pinnacle Bank’s minority stake in BHG supplies a meaningful additional source of earnings. BHG facilitates loans for skilled professionals nationwide, sells loans to community banks and other financial institutions, and earns interest on loans it retains. Pinnacle receives a share of BHG’s profits, so this income depends partly on demand from loan buyers and the performance of retained loans. Pinnacle does not control most BHG operating decisions, and its bank ownership restricts the activities BHG may pursue.
The banking business depends on attracting stable deposits at a cost that leaves room to earn on loans, and on borrowers’ ability to repay. Its emphasis on smaller businesses and southeastern markets ties it closely to local business and property conditions. Regulatory capital requirements and approvals can limit lending growth, expansion and acquisitions.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Pinnacle’s results depend on southeastern loan growth, deposit costs and credit quality, while its 49% stake in privately held BHG makes professional-loan sales and investor demand another material exposure to watch.
First Horizon competes with Pinnacle for business borrowers, deposits and franchise financing in Tennessee and other southern markets. With lending a major revenue source and most loans commercial, its business-loan growth is worth watching for competition facing Pinnacle.
Regions competes with Pinnacle across southern markets to lend to businesses, gather deposits and manage customers’ wealth. Watch its commercial banking and wealth businesses for competition over the same customer relationships.
Truist competes throughout Pinnacle’s southeastern footprint for business loans, deposits, services that manage companies’ cash, and wealth clients. Its deposit business in Georgia and the Carolinas is a concrete place to watch the competition for Pinnacle’s funding.
SouthState competes with Pinnacle for borrowers and customer deposits in the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Virginia. It earns interest and fees on real estate and other loans and uses customer deposits to fund lending, making the interest it pays depositors a useful watchpoint for funding competition.
United Community Banks competes with Pinnacle for business loans, deposits and equipment financing in six shared southeastern states. Its equipment-finance business also operates nationally, so watch that business separately from its local banking results when assessing competition for Pinnacle’s equipment loans and leases.
ServisFirst names Pinnacle as one of its largest rivals for personal and business banking customers in its markets, where it takes deposits and earns interest and fees on loans. Watch its emphasis on quick lending decisions by local bankers: it competes directly with Pinnacle’s promise of personal service and local decision-making.
PNC competes with Pinnacle in southeastern markets to lend to businesses, gather deposits, manage companies’ cash through treasury services, and serve wealth clients.
Wells Fargo competes with Pinnacle for southeastern businesses’ banking and borrowing needs, services that manage their cash, and customers’ wealth-management relationships.
Southern First competes with Pinnacle for customers who want a lasting banking relationship in the same Carolina cities and Atlanta, taking deposits and providing business, consumer and mortgage loans. Watch its ClientFIRST teams, which assign each customer a banker and support team, for how it attracts deposits with fewer offices.
United Bankshares competes with Pinnacle in Virginia and the Carolinas for business borrowers, real estate loans and customer deposits.
F.N.B. competes with Pinnacle in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic markets to provide banking to businesses and attract their deposits.
Hancock Whitney competes with Pinnacle in overlapping southeastern markets for business banking, deposits and customers financing commercial equipment.
First Financial Bancorp competes with Pinnacle in franchise lending, commercial equipment financing and Kentucky banking. Watch loans to restaurant franchisees through First Franchise Capital and equipment financing through Summit Funding Group for competition beyond local bank branches.
Hancock Whitney Corporation earningsHWC
Hancock Whitney's report will show how actively it is competing for business customers, deposits and commercial equipment borrowers in markets it shares with Pinnacle.
Look at Hancock Whitney's business lending and deposits, and watch its commercial equipment financing. Strength in these areas would point to active competition for business relationships and equipment borrowers; weakness would be less evidence of pressure, but could also reflect softer local demand rather than a Pinnacle win. The conclusion is whether Hancock Whitney's results show stronger competition for customers and financing Pinnacle also seeks.
Housing Starts (Sep)
Pinnacle Financial lends to new-home builders and building owners, so homebuilding activity can affect borrowers’ demand for construction loans and ability to repay them.
Expected1.31MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.31M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. More building than expected may support builders’ loan demand and repayment capacity, while weaker building activity may leave the bank with less lending and greater risk of credit costs.
If it comes in below expectations
Less building than expected may weaken builders’ demand for loans and repayment capacity, limiting lending and raising the risk of credit costs for the bank.
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. earningsThis company
Pinnacle earns most of its revenue from interest on loans after funding costs, so this report will show whether loan growth is being offset by the cost of deposits.
Read net interest margin—the net interest income earned for each dollar of average interest-earning assets—alongside loan and deposit growth, and compare loan yields with funding costs. If loans and deposits both grow while the margin holds or widens, deposits are funding lending without swallowing the added income. If loans grow but deposits lag and the margin narrows, the cost of attracting funds is squeezing returns; that shows whether growth still carries enough profit.
SouthState Bank Corporation earningsSSB
SouthState's report will show whether the cost of attracting deposits in markets it shares with Pinnacle is rising, a sign of pressure on Pinnacle's funding costs.
Read the interest SouthState pays on deposits alongside changes in its deposits. If its deposit costs rise while deposits grow, banks may be paying more to attract funding, raising competitive pressure on Pinnacle's deposit pricing in shared markets. Stable or falling costs would show less evidence of that pressure, but would not prove Pinnacle's own costs will move the same way. The takeaway is whether peer competition for deposits is becoming more expensive.
First Financial Bancorp earningsFFBC
First Financial Bancorp's report will show whether its franchise lending and equipment financing are intensifying competition for the kinds of borrowers Pinnacle serves.
Look separately at franchise loans through First Franchise Capital and equipment financing through Summit Funding Group. Growth in both would show First Financial is actively pursuing franchisees and equipment borrowers Pinnacle also serves, pointing to stronger competition for those customers; a slowdown would mean less evidence of pressure, but could also reflect weaker borrowing demand. The conclusion is whether Pinnacle's specialty lending faces stronger competition for the same borrowers.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Pinnacle Financial earns most of its revenue from the spread between interest on loans and other assets and interest paid on deposits and funding, so Fed rate changes can shift both sides of that income.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If rates rise more than expected, yields on new and repricing loans may lift income, but deposit and other funding costs may also rise and offset some of the gain.
If it comes in below expectations
If rates fall more than expected, lower deposit and funding costs may support income, but falling yields on new and repricing loans may reduce it; the net effect depends on which adjusts faster.
Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
Pinnacle Financial depends on employment and incomes in its southeastern markets because they shape local businesses’ borrowing and customers’ ability to repay loans.
Stronger payroll growth points to firmer employment and income that may support borrowing and loan repayment in Pinnacle Financial’s markets; weaker growth points to less support for lending and greater repayment risk.