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What happened with OTEX today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

OTEX in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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Company

Company overview

OpenText helps organizations capture, organize, protect and use information across their operations. Enterprise clients supply most of its revenue. Its largest product category, Content, manages documents and other information from capture through archiving and disposal, linking them to business workflows in applications such as SAP S/4HANA, Salesforce and Microsoft Office 365. Its broader software portfolio also covers cybersecurity and IT operations.

Clients pay to license software for their own systems or use cloud offerings, including OpenText Cloud Editions, without buying the related hardware. Software buyers typically purchase support and renew it annually for technical help, security updates and upgrades. Support is the largest revenue stream; together with cloud services and subscriptions, it supplies most revenue. OpenText also charges for implementing, integrating and training clients to use its software.

The business relies heavily on existing clients renewing support and service contracts and continuing to buy products. Its software must work with clients’ systems and third-party software, while its cloud services depend on outside infrastructure providers. Privacy rules restrict how it handles personal data and transfers that data across borders, shaping how it can deliver its services.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in OTEX’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
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Moat

OTEX says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

OpenText’s largest business depends on enterprise content-management demand and cloud migration, with privately held Hyland Software another competitor to watch.

  • Box competes directly for OpenText’s largest business: organizations pay both to manage documents securely, collaborate and automate workflows. Watch pricing pressure in Box’s cloud content platform for signs of tougher competition in enterprise content management.

  • Microsoft competes for enterprise content-management customers through SharePoint, but OpenText also depends on Microsoft’s infrastructure software to run its products. Weaknesses in that underlying software can affect OpenText’s product performance and customer relationships.

  • IBM competes with OpenText for enterprise spending on managing information and automating workflows as customers modernize across cloud and on-premise systems. IBM’s hybrid-cloud software and consulting business is the area to watch, rather than its broader infrastructure offerings.

  • ServiceNow competes with OpenText for enterprise budgets to run IT operations and automate work across existing systems. Watch its Technology products, which handle technology operations, risk and security, for the closest overlap with OpenText’s IT operations software.

  • SAP customers moving their business-management systems to its cloud create an opportunity for OpenText to sell secure cloud archiving, because OpenText content services are embedded in SAP business processes. Watch those customer migrations, not just SAP’s overall cloud subscription revenue.

  • Atlassian competes with OpenText for software bought by application-delivery, IT operations and collaboration teams. Its cloud tools for software and IT support teams are the closest products to watch for competition with OpenText’s application-delivery and IT operations offerings.

  • Oracle both competes for enterprise software customers and supplies the databases and software connecting systems that OpenText products depend on. Faults in that underlying database and middleware software can hurt OpenText’s product performance even when the problem is outside its control.

  • Veeva competes with OpenText for life-sciences customers buying regulated content and workflow software for development and quality processes. Its R&D and Quality Solutions revenue is the relevant line to watch, rather than its commercial software and data business.

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  • Descartes competes with OpenText GXS to connect supply-chain participants, exchange messages and track shipments for logistics customers. Watch expansion of its Global Logistics Network’s trading-partner and carrier connections for competition facing OpenText’s Business Network business.

  • Gen Digital competes for paid cyber-protection subscriptions with OpenText’s small-business and consumer security products, selling to consumers directly and through partners. Its Cyber Safety Platform’s security and privacy business is the closer comparison, rather than its financial-wellness and marketplace offerings.

  • Dropbox competes with OpenText for business content-collaboration subscriptions, though OpenText also manages broader enterprise needs such as records and archiving. Watch Dropbox’s paying Business teams for the overlap, rather than its personal subscriptions.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    SAP SE earningsSAP

    SAP’s report will show how quickly customers are moving business-management systems to the cloud, a shift that could create demand for secure archiving through OpenText content services embedded in those processes.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Gen Digital Inc. earningsGEN

    Gen Digital’s report will show demand for paid security and privacy subscriptions from consumers and small businesses, a market where it competes with OpenText.

  2. Time to be announced

    SERVICENOW, INC. earningsNOW

    ServiceNow’s report will show demand for its Technology products, which compete with OpenText’s IT operations software for enterprise budgets.

  3. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For OpenText, the Fed’s decision on its benchmark interest rate matters because higher rates can raise interest costs on its floating-rate debt, while lower rates can reduce them.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Open Text Corp earningsThis company

    Cloud services and subscriptions are OpenText’s growth engine, while customer support comes from maintaining existing software; this report will show whether the former can offset the latter’s decline.

  2. Time to be announced

    Dropbox, Inc. earningsDBX

    Dropbox’s report will show whether business teams keep paying for content-collaboration services, which overlap with OpenText’s content-management business.

  3. Time to be announced

    Atlassian Corporation earningsTEAM

    Atlassian’s report will show demand for its cloud tools for software and IT support teams, which compete with OpenText’s application-delivery products.

in 43 daysWed, Dec 2

  1. Time to be announced

    Descartes Systems Group Inc earningsDSGX

    Descartes’ report will show whether its logistics network is adding trading-partner and carrier connections, competing with OpenText’s Business Network for logistics customers.