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Oshkosh supplies machines that help customers lift workers and materials, fight fires, handle aircraft on the ground and collect waste. Its largest business, Access, sells JLG aerial work platforms and telehandlers to equipment rental companies and construction contractors, and Jerr-Dan recovery vehicles to towing companies. Access and Vocational together generate most revenue; Vocational includes Pierce fire trucks, McNeilus refuse vehicles and Oshkosh AeroTech airport equipment and services, paid for by municipal and commercial customers.
Its smaller Transport business supplies military vehicles, parts and support through Oshkosh Defense and delivery vehicles to the United States Postal Service through Oshkosh Delivery. The U.S. government is a significant customer overall and accounts for nearly all Transport sales, mainly through multiyear defense programs.
Equipment purchases depend on construction activity, rental-company spending and municipal budgets. Defense revenue also depends on contract awards, vehicle orders and customers exercising contract options, with U.S. program funding requiring annual congressional authorization and appropriations. Oshkosh's international sales are subject to U.S. export controls, including rules governing military products.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Beyond this list, watch Rosenbauer and REV Group for competition in municipal fire vehicles; Oshkosh also depends on military and USPS vehicle orders.
Terex challenges Oshkosh for rental companies’ equipment spending and waste haulers’ fleet purchases through Genie access equipment, refuse collection bodies and concrete mixers. Watch its sales to national rental companies for clues to demand for Oshkosh’s JLG equipment, which lifts workers and materials to height.
Federal Signal competes with Oshkosh for municipal and commercial waste haulers’ fleet spending: its New Way refuse bodies rival Oshkosh’s McNeilus collection vehicles. New Way sales are the relevant business to watch, rather than Federal Signal’s broader public-safety products.
Miller Industries, Inc. competes directly with Oshkosh’s Jerr-Dan for professional towing operators’ purchases of wreckers and car carriers. Miller makes the towing and carrier bodies installed on other manufacturers’ truck chassis, so demand for those bodies is the useful comparison for Jerr-Dan.
Manitowoc and Oshkosh share exposure to construction projects and rental-fleet investment: Manitowoc sells cranes, while Oshkosh sells platforms and telehandlers that lift workers and materials. Watch Manitowoc’s new-crane sales separately from its services and other non-new-machine sales, which it describes as less cyclical.
Caterpillar and Oshkosh both depend on construction customers buying equipment—construction machinery for Caterpillar, and aerial platforms and telehandlers for Oshkosh. Their sales are not a clean comparison: Oshkosh’s agreement to produce Caterpillar-branded telehandlers expired in 2024 and contributed to its Access sales decline in 2025.
Deere and Oshkosh both sell equipment to contractors investing in construction fleets: Deere supplies construction machinery, while Oshkosh supplies platforms and telehandlers for working at height. Deere’s construction machinery sales are the useful demand signal, not its agricultural equipment sales.
General Dynamics competes with Oshkosh Defense for military vehicle budgets, selling land combat vehicles while Oshkosh supplies tactical wheeled vehicles. Watch its land-vehicle contract awards alongside U.S. budget decisions, since Oshkosh depends on new awards and purchases under existing contracts.
PACCAR and Oshkosh serve fleets replacing trucks for specialized work: PACCAR sells commercial trucks, while Oshkosh sells refuse vehicles, concrete mixers and other purpose-built vehicles. PACCAR’s truck sales provide a fleet-spending comparison, but the supplied facts do not establish it as an Oshkosh chassis supplier.
Rivian competes with Oshkosh in delivery-fleet replacement, selling electric vans to commercial customers while Oshkosh supplies both combustion-engine and battery-electric delivery vehicles to USPS. Rivian’s commercial-van sales, rather than its consumer pickups and SUVs, are the relevant comparison for Oshkosh’s delivery business.
Housing Starts (Sep)
For Oshkosh, new-home construction readings track home building, a source of construction activity that can affect demand for its Access aerial work platforms and telehandlers sold to rental companies and contractors.
Expected1.31MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.31M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. More homes started or permitted than expected point to stronger building activity, which may support rental companies' and contractors' equipment needs and Oshkosh's Access sales.
If it comes in below expectations
Fewer homes started or permitted than expected point to weaker building activity, which may curb rental companies' and contractors' equipment needs and weigh on Oshkosh's Access sales.
Terex Corporation earningsTEX
Terex’s report will show how rental companies are buying access equipment, the market where its Genie products compete with Oshkosh’s JLG.
Watch Terex’s access-equipment sales or orders, especially to large rental companies if disclosed, alongside its comments on rental-fleet purchases. Growth would show that demand for rental equipment is there, but could also mean Terex is taking share; a decline could reflect weaker fleet spending or Terex-specific losses. A stronger market would support JLG’s demand backdrop, while Terex’s weakness alone would not prove that demand is recovering.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For Oshkosh, Fed decisions track the cost of borrowing across the economy, which can change how much rental companies and other Access customers pay to finance equipment and how much they buy.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the policy rate is higher than expected, costlier new borrowing can squeeze highly leveraged Access customers and rental companies, potentially leading them to delay equipment purchases and reducing Oshkosh's Access sales.
If it comes in below expectations
If the policy rate is lower than expected, cheaper borrowing can ease financing pressure on Access customers and rental companies, potentially supporting equipment purchases and Oshkosh's Access sales.
Oshkosh Corp. earningsThis company
Oshkosh’s report will show whether its Vocational and Transport businesses can offset weak Access equipment demand while Access sales and profitability stabilize.
Read sales and operating margin for Access, Vocational and Transport together; operating margin is the share of sales left as operating income. Check Oshkosh’s explanations of volume, pricing, labor and warranty costs. If Access sales and margins stabilize while the other segments hold their margins, demand and execution are improving. If Access keeps weakening, or growth elsewhere comes with falling margins, those businesses are not yet replacing the profit Access is losing.
Federal Signal Corp. earningsFSS
Federal Signal’s New Way refuse-body business will show how waste haulers are buying collection vehicles in the market where it competes with Oshkosh’s McNeilus.
Watch New Way refuse-body sales or orders if disclosed, together with Federal Signal’s comments on customer purchases. Growth would show that waste haulers are still buying, but could also mean New Way is winning orders from McNeilus; a decline could reflect weaker fleet spending or Federal Signal losing ground. Stronger shared-market demand would support the backdrop for Oshkosh, but Federal Signal’s weakness alone would not show that Oshkosh benefits.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. earningsRIVN
Rivian’s commercial electric-van sales will show whether buyers are taking up an alternative to the delivery vehicles Oshkosh supplies to USPS.
Look for Rivian’s commercial-van deliveries or sales, separate from its total vehicle deliveries. Growth would show that some buyers are adopting electric delivery vans as an alternative, but would not establish that USPS will order more electric vehicles or that Oshkosh will lose orders. Weakness could reflect Rivian-specific production or sales limits. The report can indicate acceptance of this alternative, not settle the direction of USPS purchases.
General Dynamics Corporation earningsGD
General Dynamics’ land-vehicle business will show how military buyers are purchasing in a market where it competes with Oshkosh Defense for some vehicle budgets.
Watch General Dynamics’ land-vehicle orders, revenue or contract updates if disclosed, alongside comments on military budgets and procurement. More activity would point to active military-vehicle buying, but could also mean General Dynamics is winning programs Oshkosh might compete for; less activity could reflect slower purchasing or company- or program-specific timing. Oshkosh Defense’s own contracts and orders remain decisive: General Dynamics’ results do not prove Oshkosh won or lost an award.
Miller Industries, Inc. earningsMLR
Miller Industries’ wrecker and car-carrier sales will show how professional towing operators are buying the products it competes on directly with Oshkosh’s Jerr-Dan.
Watch Miller’s wrecker and car-carrier sales or orders, together with any comments on customer volumes and pricing. Growth would show that towing operators are buying equipment, but could also mean Miller is taking share from Jerr-Dan; a decline could mean operators are delaying purchases or Miller is losing ground. Stronger shared-market demand supports the backdrop for Jerr-Dan, but Miller’s weakness alone does not prove Jerr-Dan has gained an opening.
