DE in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
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Farmers use Deere & Company’s John Deere tractors, harvesters and precision technology to plant, tend and harvest crops. Agriculture and turf equipment account for most equipment sales, with large-scale farming machinery the largest business. Deere also supplies construction and forestry machines and Wirtgen roadbuilding equipment, giving it a substantial business beyond farming.
Most equipment and parts sales go to independent dealers, which pay Deere and resell to end users. Deere also earns from maintenance, repairs and technology upgrades after machines are sold. Most sales occur in the United States and Canada.
John Deere Financial helps customers buy or lease equipment and helps dealers fund their inventories. It earns interest and lease income, while paying to fund those loans and leased machines. This business relies largely on Deere equipment sales, access to funding and customers’ ability to repay.
Equipment demand depends heavily on farm income and farmers’ willingness to replace machinery; construction and infrastructure activity matter for the construction business. Deere also depends on dealers to sell and service its machines: excess new or used inventory can cause dealers to postpone orders. Export controls, sanctions and other trade restrictions can limit where Deere sells and supports its products.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Deere’s results hinge mainly on farmers’ equipment budgets and construction investment; Kubota and privately held CLAAS are also important competitors missing from this list.
CNH Industrial competes with Deere for farmers’ and contractors’ equipment purchases through its Case IH and New Holland farm machinery and construction equipment. Its sales to larger crop farms are particularly relevant to Deere’s large agricultural machines.
AGCO competes with Deere for farmers’ spending on tractors, harvesting equipment and systems that guide planting, input application and harvesting. Watch its PTx offering, which works across different brands of machinery rather than only AGCO equipment.
Caterpillar competes with Deere for contractors’ and equipment fleets’ purchases of earthmoving and construction machinery. Its construction-machinery sales are the relevant comparison for Deere, rather than its mining equipment, engines or turbines.
Toro competes with Deere for professional turf-maintenance, golf-course and residential lawn-equipment customers. Its lawn and golf-course equipment news speaks more directly to Deere’s turf business than to Deere’s large-farm machinery.
Titan Machinery’s equipment sales and inventories offer a view into the farm and construction markets Deere serves; its stores sell new and used machines, parts, repairs and rentals in the U.S., Europe and Australia. Watch used-equipment inventories, since higher used inventories contributed to Deere’s lower agricultural shipments in fiscal 2025.
Lindsay Corporation sells irrigation systems to growers whose ability to invest also drives purchases of Deere farm machinery. Its irrigation sales offer a read on growers’ equipment spending, distinct from its road-safety infrastructure business.
Deere buys off-highway wheels, tires and related assemblies from Titan International, so Titan’s sales partly depend on Deere’s equipment purchases. Deere accounted for 10% of Titan’s consolidated net sales in 2025 across its agricultural, earthmoving/construction and consumer segments.
Terex competes with Deere’s Kleemann products for aggregate producers’ and construction projects’ purchases of machines that crush, sort and move material. Its crushing, screening and conveyor equipment is the overlap to watch, not its waste-collection or utility equipment.
EquipmentShare.com Inc buys Deere machinery for rental and resale, linking Deere’s sales to investment in its construction rental fleet. Demand for rentals on commercial, industrial and infrastructure projects offers a clue to fleet investment needs; reduced rental purchases contributed to Deere’s lower construction-equipment shipments in fiscal 2025.
Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. (MEC) manufactures components for more than 65 Deere model platforms, making Deere’s orders an important source of its revenue. Deere represented 10% of MEC’s net sales in 2025, giving its component sales to Deere a direct connection to the equipment maker’s purchasing.
Housing Starts (Sep)
Deere sells turf and construction equipment through dealers, so homebuilding readings indicate building activity that can affect demand for those machines and the sales dealers make from them.
Expected1.31MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.31M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. More homebuilding than expected points to stronger construction activity, which may support demand for Deere construction equipment and lift dealer purchases from Deere.
If it comes in below expectations
Less homebuilding than expected points to weaker construction activity, which may reduce demand for Deere construction equipment and curb dealer purchases from Deere.
Lindsay Corporation earningsLNN
Lindsay sells irrigation systems to growers, so its report offers a clue to whether those growers are also willing to invest in Deere farm machinery.
Focus on Lindsay’s irrigation sales, not its road-safety business. Stronger irrigation sales would suggest growers are still willing to invest in farm equipment, a constructive clue for Deere; weaker sales could signal tighter spending appetite or capacity, but would not by themselves prove that Deere orders are falling.
Terex Corporation earningsTEX
Terex’s crushing, screening and conveyor machines compete with Deere’s Kleemann products for aggregate producers’ and project buyers’ spending, so its report will show how that shared market is faring.
Focus on Terex sales of crushing, screening and conveyor equipment, not its waste-collection or utility products. Stronger sales in that line would suggest aggregate producers and projects are supporting demand in the market Deere’s Kleemann products serve; weaker sales would signal pressure there, but would not alone show whether Deere is gaining or losing orders.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Deere sells agricultural, turf and construction equipment through dealers and earns financing income from John Deere Financial, so interest-rate decisions affect what customers pay to finance equipment and what Deere pays to fund loans and leases.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If rates rise more than expected, John Deere Financial may pay more to borrow and customers may face less affordable financing, potentially slowing equipment purchases and reducing Deere’s sales and financing income.
If it comes in below expectations
If rates fall more than expected, John Deere Financial may borrow more cheaply and customers may find equipment financing more affordable, potentially supporting purchases and Deere’s sales and financing income.
AGCO Corporation earningsAGCO
AGCO competes with Deere for farmers’ spending on tractors, harvesting equipment and precision systems, so its report will show both the strength of that shared market and the competition for it.
Read AGCO’s farm-equipment sales separately from its PTx business, whose systems can work across brands. Stronger equipment sales would show farmers supporting the shared market, while also confirming that a competitor is selling well; strength in PTx would add evidence of demand for brand-independent precision systems. Weak sales could reflect a softer market or AGCO-specific losses, not automatically a Deere share gain.
Caterpillar Inc. earningsCAT
Caterpillar competes with Deere for contractors’ and equipment fleets’ earthmoving and construction-machine purchases, so its construction sales will show the strength of that shared market.
Focus on Caterpillar’s construction-machinery sales, not its mining equipment, engines or turbines. Stronger sales would show contractors and fleets are still buying machinery, a positive demand signal for Deere’s construction business, though Caterpillar could also be winning orders from competitors. Weaker sales would indicate market pressure but would not distinguish an industry slowdown from a shift in market share.
Mayville Engineering Company, Inc. earningsMEC
Mayville Engineering Company makes components for many Deere model platforms, so its report offers a supplier-side clue to equipment production and component demand.
Separate Mayville’s overall sales and operating results from any disclosed Deere-related customer or program trends. Stronger sales with support from Deere-related business would be consistent with steady component demand in the supply chain; weaker results could reflect softer orders overall or pressure at the supplier, but without Deere-specific detail they cannot prove Deere cut purchases.
EquipmentShare.com Inc earningsEQPT
EquipmentShare.com buys Deere construction machinery for rental and resale, so its report will show whether rental demand is supporting that kind of fleet investment.
Read rental-business performance alongside investment in the equipment fleet. Stronger rental demand with fleet expansion would show customers using machines enough to support purchases, a constructive signal for potential Deere construction-equipment sales; weaker rentals with restrained investment would mean less support from this buyer, not proof that all contractors are cutting purchases.
Titan Machinery Inc. earningsTITN
Titan Machinery sells new and used farm and construction machines, so its sales and inventories can show whether used equipment is still weighing on demand for Deere’s new machines.
Read Titan Machinery’s new-machine sales alongside used-machine inventory and sales. Falling used inventory with steady sales would suggest dealers are clearing older equipment and making room for new Deere machines; building inventory with weaker sales would mean buyers may keep choosing used machines and dealers may delay new purchases, pressuring Deere shipments and pricing.
Deere & Company earningsThis company
Deere sells farm, turf and construction equipment and parts, and this report will show whether sales volumes and product mix are supporting profit margins across those businesses.
Read equipment sales volumes and mix alongside each business’s operating margin—the share of sales left as operating profit. Improving volumes and mix with firmer margins would show demand translating into better equipment profits; weaker volumes or mix with shrinking margins would show that pricing and cost control are not offsetting sales pressure.
Toro Company (The) earningsTTC
Toro competes with Deere for professional turf, golf-course and residential lawn-equipment customers, so its report will show demand and competition in that shared market.
Focus on Toro’s turf and golf-course equipment sales. Stronger sales would show that these customers are still spending on equipment, a positive demand clue for Deere’s turf business, while also showing a competitor selling more; weaker sales could reflect softer demand or Toro-specific losses, not automatically a Deere gain.