Stock daily read

What happened with OSBC today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

OSBC in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Old Second Bancorp operates through Old Second National Bank, serving individuals and small to medium-sized businesses mainly in Chicago’s western and southern suburbs. The bank takes customer deposits and uses that funding to make business, property and consumer loans and hold investment securities. Most of its earnings come from the interest it receives after paying interest to depositors and other funding providers. Customers also pay fees for deposit accounts, loan origination and wealth management, including investment advice and trust administration.

Its lending extends beyond its Illinois branch network, including nationwide business lending and powersport loans arranged through third-party dealers. Real-estate loans make up most of the loan portfolio, with commercial real estate the largest category. This leaves the business particularly dependent on borrowers’ cash flows and property values in its core markets.

Maintaining deposits at an affordable cost and managing the gap between lending and funding rates are central to earnings. Banking rules constrain lending, investments and expansion and require adequate capital. The parent company also relies on dividends from the bank, which are subject to regulatory limits.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in OSBC’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

OSBC says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Byline Bancorp competes with Old Second for Chicago-area business borrowers, commercial property loans and deposits built on local customer relationships. Watch Byline’s ability to gather low-cost deposits through its branches: those are funds both banks seek from local businesses and households.

  • Midland States Bancorp competes with Old Second for Illinois businesses and households needing banking, home loans and wealth management. Its ability to retain those customer relationships is worth watching across lending and wealth services, rather than banking alone.

  • First Busey Corporation competes with Old Second to provide Illinois businesses with banking and customers with wealth management; both also lend against commercial property. Busey’s commercial property credit news is worth watching for risks shared by the two banks.

  • First Mid Bancshares competes with Old Second for Illinois customers through relationship-based banking and wealth management, and commercial property lending is substantial at both. Watch First Mid’s commercial property loan performance as a comparison for this important part of Old Second’s lending business.

  • Associated Banc-Corp competes with Old Second for Illinois businesses’ and households’ loans and deposits. Watch the rates Associated pays depositors and charges borrowers: those are explicit competitive levers in the customer relationships both banks seek.

  • First Merchants Corp and Old Second serve businesses and households in neighboring Midwestern markets, making business loan demand and deposit costs useful comparisons; Old Second also took over five Chicago-area branches and about $268 million in deposits from First Merchants Bank on December 6, 2024. Watch First Merchants’ margin between interest earned and funding costs, while remembering that Old Second’s results after that date include the acquired branch business.

  • Mercantile Bank Corp and Old Second both use customer deposits to fund loans to Midwestern businesses and commercial property borrowers, tying them to business demand and deposit pricing. Mercantile’s generally floating-rate commercial property loans make their interest income a useful comparison when assessing Old Second’s lending earnings.

  • 1st Source Corp and Old Second combine Midwestern banking for businesses and households with commercial loans and leases beyond their branch markets. Watch 1st Source’s nationwide equipment loans and leases as a comparison for Old Second’s nationwide leasing business, rather than judging either bank only by local lending.

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  • First Financial Corporation and Old Second both lend to Illinois businesses and households and nearby markets, and both offer lease financing and trust services. First Financial’s business and household lending in Illinois and Indiana provides a regional comparison for Old Second’s loan demand.

Agenda

todayTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced

    Mercantile Bank Corp earningsMBWM

    Mercantile Bank’s report will show how interest income from floating-rate commercial property loans and business lending demand are holding up, offering a comparison for Old Second’s commercial lending.

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Old Second Bancorp Inc earningsThis company

    Old Second earns mainly from interest on loans and securities minus what it pays for deposits and borrowings, and this report will show whether that income holds up without worsening loan quality.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Associated Banc-Corp earningsASB

    Associated Banc-Corp’s report will show what it pays depositors and charges borrowers to win Illinois businesses and households, revealing the competitive pressure Old Second also faces.

  2. Time to be announced

    1st Source Corp earningsSRCE

    1st Source’s report will show how its equipment lending and leasing are performing, offering a comparison for Old Second’s nationwide leasing business.

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    First Busey Corporation earningsBUSE

    First Busey’s report will show how commercial property borrowers are repaying and whether credit losses are rising, offering a risk comparison for Old Second’s substantial property lending.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Old Second, the Fed’s policy rate sets the direction for rates on its loans and securities and on deposits and borrowings, changing the interest income it earns and the funding costs it pays.