OSBC in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Old Second Bancorp operates through Old Second National Bank, serving individuals and small to medium-sized businesses mainly in Chicago’s western and southern suburbs. The bank takes customer deposits and uses that funding to make business, property and consumer loans and hold investment securities. Most of its earnings come from the interest it receives after paying interest to depositors and other funding providers. Customers also pay fees for deposit accounts, loan origination and wealth management, including investment advice and trust administration.
Its lending extends beyond its Illinois branch network, including nationwide business lending and powersport loans arranged through third-party dealers. Real-estate loans make up most of the loan portfolio, with commercial real estate the largest category. This leaves the business particularly dependent on borrowers’ cash flows and property values in its core markets.
Maintaining deposits at an affordable cost and managing the gap between lending and funding rates are central to earnings. Banking rules constrain lending, investments and expansion and require adequate capital. The parent company also relies on dividends from the bank, which are subject to regulatory limits.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Byline Bancorp competes with Old Second for Chicago-area business borrowers, commercial property loans and deposits built on local customer relationships. Watch Byline’s ability to gather low-cost deposits through its branches: those are funds both banks seek from local businesses and households.
Midland States Bancorp competes with Old Second for Illinois businesses and households needing banking, home loans and wealth management. Its ability to retain those customer relationships is worth watching across lending and wealth services, rather than banking alone.
First Busey Corporation competes with Old Second to provide Illinois businesses with banking and customers with wealth management; both also lend against commercial property. Busey’s commercial property credit news is worth watching for risks shared by the two banks.
First Mid Bancshares competes with Old Second for Illinois customers through relationship-based banking and wealth management, and commercial property lending is substantial at both. Watch First Mid’s commercial property loan performance as a comparison for this important part of Old Second’s lending business.
Associated Banc-Corp competes with Old Second for Illinois businesses’ and households’ loans and deposits. Watch the rates Associated pays depositors and charges borrowers: those are explicit competitive levers in the customer relationships both banks seek.
First Merchants Corp and Old Second serve businesses and households in neighboring Midwestern markets, making business loan demand and deposit costs useful comparisons; Old Second also took over five Chicago-area branches and about $268 million in deposits from First Merchants Bank on December 6, 2024. Watch First Merchants’ margin between interest earned and funding costs, while remembering that Old Second’s results after that date include the acquired branch business.
Mercantile Bank Corp and Old Second both use customer deposits to fund loans to Midwestern businesses and commercial property borrowers, tying them to business demand and deposit pricing. Mercantile’s generally floating-rate commercial property loans make their interest income a useful comparison when assessing Old Second’s lending earnings.
1st Source Corp and Old Second combine Midwestern banking for businesses and households with commercial loans and leases beyond their branch markets. Watch 1st Source’s nationwide equipment loans and leases as a comparison for Old Second’s nationwide leasing business, rather than judging either bank only by local lending.
First Financial Corporation and Old Second both lend to Illinois businesses and households and nearby markets, and both offer lease financing and trust services. First Financial’s business and household lending in Illinois and Indiana provides a regional comparison for Old Second’s loan demand.
Mercantile Bank Corp earningsMBWM
Mercantile Bank’s report will show how interest income from floating-rate commercial property loans and business lending demand are holding up, offering a comparison for Old Second’s commercial lending.
See whether Mercantile Bank’s commercial lending and net interest income hold up together. Steady business lending and interest income would suggest Midwestern businesses and commercial property borrowers are still supporting banks’ loan earnings—a constructive sign for Old Second’s commercial lending environment. Weakness in either would point to softer demand or pressure on loan income, a warning about the same market Old Second serves.
Old Second Bancorp Inc earningsThis company
Old Second earns mainly from interest on loans and securities minus what it pays for deposits and borrowings, and this report will show whether that income holds up without worsening loan quality.
Read net interest income alongside net interest margin—the spread between interest earned and funding costs—and check delinquent loans and the provision for credit losses. Steady income and margin with stable delinquencies and provisions would suggest loan earnings are covering funding costs and borrowers are keeping up; a narrowing margin or rising delinquencies and provisions would point to funding pressure or weaker repayment eroding profit.
Associated Banc-Corp earningsASB
Associated Banc-Corp’s report will show what it pays depositors and charges borrowers to win Illinois businesses and households, revealing the competitive pressure Old Second also faces.
Read Associated’s deposit interest expense alongside the yield it earns on loans. Stable deposit costs and loan yields would suggest competition is not yet materially squeezing banks’ spreads, leaving Old Second more room to price deposits and loans; rising deposit costs or falling loan yields would show banks paying more to keep depositors or accepting less from borrowers, pressure Old Second may also face.
1st Source Corp earningsSRCE
1st Source’s report will show how its equipment lending and leasing are performing, offering a comparison for Old Second’s nationwide leasing business.
Check 1st Source’s equipment loan and lease performance alongside related income. Steady repayments and income would suggest business customers are still using equipment financing without visible deterioration in asset quality, a supportive market comparison for Old Second’s leasing business; rising delinquencies or losses and weaker income would point to pressure on demand or repayment that could also affect Old Second’s comparable business.
First Busey Corporation earningsBUSE
First Busey’s report will show how commercial property borrowers are repaying and whether credit losses are rising, offering a risk comparison for Old Second’s substantial property lending.
Check whether First Busey’s commercial property loan delinquencies, charge-offs and provision for credit losses worsen. Stable loan performance and limited losses would suggest its property borrowers are still paying and risk is not visibly rising; more delinquencies, charge-offs or provisions would point to borrower or collateral stress, a concern for Old Second given its substantial commercial property lending.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For Old Second, the Fed’s policy rate sets the direction for rates on its loans and securities and on deposits and borrowings, changing the interest income it earns and the funding costs it pays.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the rate is higher than expected, Old Second may earn more on loans and securities that reprice or on new lending, but if deposit and borrowing costs rise faster, its net interest income—the interest earned minus interest paid—may fall.
If it comes in below expectations
If the rate is lower than expected, Old Second may pay less for deposits and borrowings, but if interest on its loans and securities resets or falls faster, the income from those assets may shrink more and reduce net interest income.