Stock daily read

What happened with MSBI today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

MSBI in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Midland States Bancorp serves businesses and individuals in Illinois and the St. Louis metropolitan area through Midland States Bank. Customer deposits are its main funding source, supporting loans primarily to small and midsized businesses for equipment, working capital and property. Borrowers pay interest, and the bank’s main revenue is what remains after paying interest on deposits and other funding. Commercial lending accounts for most of its loan portfolio, alongside consumer lending and deposit services.

Midland Wealth Management adds a smaller fee-based business. Customers pay it to manage investments and administer trusts and other assets, with fees generally tied to the value of assets managed or administered.

The banking business depends on retaining deposits, managing the gap between lending yields and funding costs, and borrowers’ ability to repay. Business cash flow and local property conditions matter especially because commercial loans dominate and most loans have real estate among their collateral. Regulatory capital requirements constrain growth and distributions; the holding company itself relies mainly on bank dividends, which are subject to legal, regulatory and debt-covenant limits.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in MSBI’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

MSBI says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • First Mid Bancshares competes with Midland States Bancorp for Illinois businesses’ loans and deposits and clients’ wealth-management business. Both banks also have substantial commercial property lending exposure, making that loan book worth watching alongside the contest for customers.

  • First Busey Corporation competes with Midland States Bancorp for business borrowers, depositors and wealth-management clients across Illinois and the St. Louis area. Its progress in winning those banking relationships is what matters for Midland’s competitive position.

  • Enterprise Financial Services Corporation, through Enterprise Bank & Trust, competes with Midland States Bancorp in St. Louis to lend to privately held businesses, gather core deposits and manage business owners’ family wealth. Watch those business and owner-family relationships rather than treating its wider banking footprint as a direct comparison.

  • Associated Banc-Corp competes with Midland States Bancorp in Illinois and Missouri for individuals and businesses seeking an ongoing banking relationship and deposit accounts. Watch the rates Associated pays depositors and charges borrowers: it identifies both as central to winning and retaining customers.

  • Central Bancompany’s Missouri banking business competes with Midland States Bancorp’s St. Louis operations for business banking clients, households’ deposits and wealth-management clients. Those customer relationships are the part of Central’s business to watch for competitive pressure on Midland.

  • QCR Holdings offers a regional comparison for Midland States Bancorp: both use customer deposits to fund business lending in Illinois and Missouri, though their main cities differ. Watch the gap between QCR’s interest earned on loans, leases and securities and interest paid on deposits and borrowings—its net interest income—to compare lending returns and funding costs.

  • First Financial Bancorp overlaps with Midland States Bancorp in Illinois, lending to businesses, taking deposits and managing clients’ wealth. Its financing for businesses’ working capital and longer-term needs is a concrete area to watch against Midland’s commercial lending.

  • Mercantile Bank Corp is a useful regional lending comparison for Midland States Bancorp because both use customer deposits to finance small and midsized businesses and commercial properties. Watch Mercantile’s working-capital, equipment and commercial property loans alongside its deposit costs to assess the lending conditions Midland also faces.

Agenda

todayTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced

    QCR Holdings Inc earningsQCRH

    QCR Holdings’ report will show whether interest from loans, leases and securities is keeping up with deposit and borrowing costs, offering Midland States Bancorp a read on similar banking pressures.

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Enterprise Financial Services Corporation earningsEFSC

    Enterprise Financial Services Corporation’s report will show how it is competing in St. Louis for business loans, core deposits and business owners’ wealth-management relationships—the same customers Midland States Bancorp seeks.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Midland States Bancorp, Inc. earningsThis company

    Midland States Bancorp earns mainly from the gap between what its loans bring in and what it pays for funding, and this report will show whether funding costs and loan losses are squeezing that income.

  2. Time to be announced

    Associated Banc-Corp earningsASB

    Associated Banc-Corp’s report will show what it pays depositors and charges borrowers in Illinois and Missouri, and whether those rates help it keep customers competing with Midland States Bancorp.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s interest-rate decision signals the direction of borrowing costs, which can change what Midland States Bank pays for deposits and borrowings and earns on its loans and securities.