Stock daily read

What happened with MAR today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

MAR in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Marriott International owns very few of the hotels in its global network. Hotel owners pay to use its brands, reservation systems and marketing, or hire Marriott to run their hotels. Franchise royalties generally rise with room revenue; management fees depend on hotel revenue and, for incentive fees, profit. Franchise and licensing fees are its largest fee stream. Owners also reimburse Marriott for hotel operating costs and shared services, which account for most of its revenue.

Marriott Bonvoy connects the hotels through a loyalty program that brings substantial repeat business. Participating hotels and partners pay for shared loyalty, reservation and marketing services. Marriott also receives payments from co-branded credit-card partners, including JPMorgan Chase and American Express in the United States, largely tied to card usage. These payments are an important funding source for Bonvoy.

The business depends on attracting travelers and keeping hotel owners in its network. Hotel room sales and profits drive fees, while owners’ access to financing supports new hotels and renovations. Some management contracts allow owners to terminate if Marriott fails to remedy specified performance or financial-return shortfalls.

Read allShow less
Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in MAR’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

MAR says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Marriott’s fees depend on worldwide room demand and owners choosing its hotel brands; Accor is another global rival to watch beyond this list.

  • Hilton competes with Marriott worldwide for guests and hotel-owner contracts, with both mainly earning fees from owners for hotel brands and management. Watch Hilton’s additions of franchised and managed rooms for a sense of which system is attracting owners.

  • IHG competes with Marriott globally for guests and owners, with both collecting brand and management fees rather than relying mainly on owning hotels. IHG’s growth in open hotels shows how its predominantly franchised system is expanding in that contest.

  • Hyatt competes with Marriott for guests and owners through global hotel brands that owners pay to use or have managed. Hyatt’s management and franchise revenue is a closer comparison for Marriott’s fee business than its total revenue, which also includes owned and leased hotels.

  • Choice Hotels competes directly with Marriott through Comfort and Fairfield, while both collect fees from owners using their hotel brands. Choice’s franchised room revenue and room growth help gauge the demand and owner expansion behind Marriott’s own franchise fees.

  • Wyndham competes with Marriott for guests and owners paying to affiliate hotels with its brands, but leans more toward lower-priced hotels with fewer services. Its U.S. royalty revenue is a useful comparison for demand in economy through upper-midscale hotels, rather than Marriott’s whole portfolio.

  • Airbnb competes with Marriott worldwide for travelers’ accommodation spending by helping guests book hosts’ short-term stays online. Its stays business is the relevant comparison for hotel demand, rather than its experiences and services offerings.

  • Host Hotels & Resorts owns a substantial Marriott-branded hotel portfolio whose revenue and profits support fees paid to Marriott for brands and management. Watch room sales and hotel profits at its luxury and upper-upscale properties to gauge the demand behind those fees.

  • Marriott Vacations Worldwide pays Marriott to use its vacation-ownership brands, providing an inflation-adjusted annual fee plus fees tied to sales volumes. Watch sales of those vacation-ownership products for the variable part of Marriott’s licensing income.

Show 6 moreShow less
  • Ryman Hospitality Properties pays Marriott to run its Gaylord and JW Marriott resorts, with management fees tied to revenue and incentive fees linked to profits above specified thresholds. Large-group meeting demand and resort profits show how that fee stream is performing.

  • Apple Hospitality REIT owns many Marriott-branded U.S. hotels that pay Marriott franchise fees, making its room demand useful for assessing Marriott’s U.S. business. Watch occupancy and revenue per available room across Apple’s portfolio, while remembering it also includes other brands.

  • H World competes with Marriott for guests and hotel-brand affiliations, offering a regional comparison for Marriott’s China business. Owners pay H World for brand use and, at many hotels, on-site managers; growth in those fee-paying hotels shows its progress in attracting owners.

  • MGM Resorts’ hotels participate in MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy, bringing Marriott royalties and fees while sharing resort and convention demand. Watch MGM’s hotel and meeting business rather than gaming revenue for the closer signal on Marriott’s lodging exposure.

  • Trip.com Group competes with Marriott’s direct booking channels by selling accommodation reservations to leisure and business travelers, though stronger travel demand helps both. Its accommodation bookings offer a closer guide to Marriott’s room demand than its transport-ticket business.

  • American Express pays Marriott under U.S. Bonvoy co-branded card agreements, with usage-linked payments helping fund Marriott’s loyalty program. Spending on those cards matters for Marriott’s fee income, not just bookings at its hotels.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. earningsWH

    Wyndham’s report will show how room demand and owner revenue are holding up in economy-to-upper-midscale hotels, a narrower market signal for Marriott’s broader portfolio.

in 13 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Marriott International earningsThis company

    Marriott earns mainly fees from hotel owners for its brands and management, and this report shows whether room revenue is still feeding that income.