Stock daily read

What happened with VAC today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

VAC in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Marriott Vacations Worldwide sells vacation ownership interests under brands including Marriott Vacation Club and Hyatt Vacation Club. Most products give buyers annual points they can use for stays at different resorts within a program, rather than only at one property. Vacation ownership accounts for nearly all of the business, and selling these interests is its main revenue source. Most sales come from existing owners, mainly through sales centers at resorts in North America.

A purchase also creates ongoing business: owners pay annual program fees, and the company earns fees for managing resorts and owners’ associations. Buyers who borrow from the company pay loan interest, and travelers pay to rent available accommodations, including inventory awaiting sale. Its much smaller Interval International business charges for memberships and vacation exchanges, while Aqua-Aston earns fees for managing other owners’ lodging properties and providing related rental services.

The business relies on Marriott International and Hyatt for licensed brands and access to loyalty-program customers. It must meet brand standards, and new developments or acquisitions need licensors’ consent to use their marks. Vacation ownership sales, lending and resort management also require regulatory licenses or registrations, while privacy and marketing laws limit how it can reach prospective buyers.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in VAC’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

VAC says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Travel + Leisure competes with Marriott Vacations Worldwide for buyers of vacation ownership interests, while its RCI network competes directly with Interval International to help resort developers and vacation owners exchange stays. Watch its vacation ownership sales and RCI membership for signs of competition in these two businesses.

  • Hilton Grand Vacations competes with Marriott Vacations Worldwide for branded timeshare buyers; both also lend to purchasers and collect resort-management, membership and rental revenue from their owner networks. Its timeshare sales and consumer-financing results offer a comparison for Marriott Vacations Worldwide’s sales and lending business.

  • Marriott Vacations Worldwide depends on Marriott International for the brands used across most of its resorts and access to Marriott Bonvoy members; both earn money from demand for Marriott-branded stays. Marriott International receives fixed and sales-based license fees from the timeshare business, while its Bonvoy customer base helps Marriott Vacations Worldwide reach buyers.

  • Marriott Vacations Worldwide relies on Hyatt Hotels for the Hyatt Vacation Club brand and access to World of Hyatt customers, while Hyatt’s hotels and resorts serve related vacation demand. Hyatt earns money from hotel guests and from owners paying for management and brand use; its loyalty customer base gives Marriott Vacations Worldwide a channel to market vacation ownership products.

Agenda

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Travel + Leisure Co. earningsTNL

    Travel & Leisure’s report will show demand from vacation-ownership buyers and exchange members, the two groups it competes with Marriott Vacations Worldwide to attract.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Marriott Vacations Worldwide, the Fed’s decision tracks the price of borrowing across the economy, which can change what customers pay to finance vacation ownership and what the company pays to fund its business.

in 10 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Hyatt Hotels Corporation earningsH

    Hyatt’s report will show whether its hotel guests and loyalty members remain a useful channel for Marriott Vacations Worldwide to reach vacation-ownership buyers.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION earningsThis company

    Vacation-ownership sales generate most of Marriott Vacations Worldwide’s revenue, and this report will show whether buyer sign-ups, contract prices and development margins support one another.