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Most of Good Times Restaurants’ revenue comes from diners at Bad Daddy’s Burger Bar, a full-service casual-dining chain serving customizable burgers, salads and alcoholic drinks, with both dine-in and off-premises orders. Its smaller business, Good Times Burgers & Frozen Custard, sells burgers, fries and frozen custard, mainly through drive-thrus. Sales at company-operated restaurants account for nearly all revenue; franchise royalties and license fees make a small contribution.
The Good Times chain is concentrated in Colorado and uses a single food-service distribution warehouse. US Foods supplies nearly all food and paper products for Good Times and most for Bad Daddy’s. Restaurant profitability depends on customer traffic and on menu prices covering food and staffing costs. Beef is generally bought at market-linked prices, while the company says it cannot fully pass higher labor costs on to diners without discouraging visits.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Good Times’ results also depend on Colorado burger traffic, making privately held In-N-Out and Whataburger worth watching as they expand into its markets.
Red Robin competes directly with Good Times Restaurants’ Bad Daddy’s for families buying gourmet burgers in full-service restaurants. Red Robin’s results from these diners offer a close comparison for Bad Daddy’s, which differentiates itself with customized burgers and a full bar.
Texas Roadhouse’s casual-dining restaurants, especially Bubba’s 33, compete with Good Times Restaurants’ Bad Daddy’s for customers spending on burger-and-bar meals and family dining.
Dine Brands Global’s Applebee’s competes with Good Times Restaurants’ Bad Daddy’s for customers choosing moderately priced grill-and-bar meals.
Darden’s Yard House and other U.S. casual-dining brands compete with Good Times Restaurants’ Bad Daddy’s for customers paying for full-service meals and drinks at the bar.
Good Times Restaurants relies on US Foods Holding’s distribution business for nearly all food and paper supplies at Good Times and most at Bad Daddy’s. Watch its delivery service and supply pricing, though Good Times says it could replace distributors with little or no interruption and most commodity pricing agreements leave beef, chicken and bacon exposed to monthly market changes.
McDonald’s competes directly with Good Times for customers buying quick-service burgers and drive-through meals, but its global franchise business differs from Good Times Restaurants’ restaurant operations.
Restaurant Brands International’s Burger King competes with Good Times for quick-service burger customers, but the parent’s global franchise portfolio makes its overall results a less direct comparison. Burger King’s sales are the closer line to watch than the group total.
BT Brands’ Burger Time and Good Times both sell burgers to drive-through customers, so traffic, beef costs and restaurant wages put similar pressure on store profits despite their different regions. Watch Burger Time’s performance in the North Central United States as a comparison, not a direct measure of Good Times’ Colorado demand.
Bloomin’ Brands’ Outback Steakhouse competes with Good Times Restaurants’ Bad Daddy’s for casual-dining customers, and both businesses depend heavily on restaurants they operate themselves. Bloomin’ Brands’ company-operated restaurant results offer a closer comparison than its franchise fees.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For Good Times Restaurants, the Fed’s policy-rate decision signals whether interest costs on its Cadence credit-facility borrowing or future loans for working capital and restaurant investment may rise or fall.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If rates rise more than expected, interest on borrowing that reprices and on new Cadence facility draws may cost more, leaving less cash for Good Times Restaurants’ restaurant operations and investment.
If it comes in below expectations
If rates fall more than expected, interest on borrowing that reprices and on new Cadence facility draws may cost less, leaving more cash for Good Times Restaurants’ restaurant operations and investment.
Restaurant Brands International Inc. earningsQSR
Restaurant Brands International’s Burger King sales will show whether demand and competition in quick-service burgers are putting pressure on Good Times.
Compare Burger King’s sales with Good Times’ same-store sales. If Burger King holds up while Good Times lags, Burger King may be winning more of their shared burger and drive-through demand; if both weaken, the pressure is more likely to reflect a broader slowdown among those customers than a loss specific to Good Times.
JOLTs Job Openings (Sep)
For Good Times Restaurants, JOLTS counts job openings, and more openings can intensify competition for restaurant managers and crew, pushing up the wages and staffing costs the company pays.
Expected7.0MLast release7.079M
If it comes in above expectations
More openings than expected could make it harder for Good Times Restaurants to hire and retain managers and crew, increasing wage pressure and potentially squeezing restaurant margins.
If it comes in below expectations
If the reading is below the 7.0M estimate, it is below the previous 7.079M. Fewer openings than expected could ease hiring competition for Good Times Restaurants’ managers and crew, reducing wage pressure and potentially relieving pressure on restaurant margins.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc earningsRRGB
Red Robin’s established-restaurant sales will show whether diners’ demand for full-service burger meals is also affecting Bad Daddy’s.
Compare Red Robin’s and Bad Daddy’s same-store sales, each measured under its own definition for established restaurants. If Red Robin holds up while Bad Daddy’s declines, diners may be choosing the competitor for full-service burger meals; if both move in the same direction, the shift is more likely in demand for this kind of dining overall.
US Foods Holding Corp. earningsUSFD
US Foods’ distribution results will give readers a read on the food and paper supply route Good Times and Bad Daddy’s rely on.
Look for US Foods’ comments on distribution service and costs, then compare them with Good Times Restaurants’ own disclosures about supply or purchasing prices. Steady service without clear cost pressure would support the view that this key distribution route is working smoothly; signs of disruption or rising costs would raise the risk of supply or purchasing pressure for both concepts. US Foods’ overall results do not establish what Good Times actually pays or whether its commodity costs have changed.
Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
For Good Times Restaurants, the monthly jobs report counts jobs added or lost; employment growth can support customers’ income and spending on visits to its Bad Daddy’s and Good Times restaurants, while job losses can weigh on sales.
More jobs added points to stronger employment that may support customer income, visits and sales at the company’s two restaurant concepts; fewer jobs or job losses point to weaker support for that demand.
Retail Sales MoM (Oct)
For Good Times Restaurants, retail-sales figures track consumer spending at retailers; stronger spending may support customer visits and purchases at its Bad Daddy’s and Good Times restaurants, while weaker spending may reduce restaurant sales.
Stronger retail sales point to firmer consumer spending that may support visits and purchases at the company’s two restaurant concepts; weaker retail sales point to less support for restaurant demand and sales.
Good Times Restaurants Inc. earningsThis company
Good Times Restaurants’ report will show whether sales at established Good Times and Bad Daddy’s restaurants are holding up and whether those sales are translating into operating income.
Read same-store sales alongside operating income for each concept. Same-store sales track established company-operated restaurants under the company’s definition. Improving sales with steady or rising operating income would show that customer spending is supporting the business against food and labor costs; falling sales and weaker income would show that pricing is not offsetting pressure from demand, sales mix or costs.
