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What happened with QSR today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

QSR in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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Company

Company overview

Restaurant Brands International owns Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, but independent franchisees operate almost all its restaurants. Customers pay those operators for meals; the operators then pay the company royalties based on restaurant sales and fees for franchise rights. The company also collects rent where it leases or subleases premises to franchisees. Sales at franchised restaurants belong to the operators, not to Restaurant Brands International.

Tim Hortons adds a substantial supply business: the company roasts coffee, makes certain ingredients, and buys and resells food, equipment and other supplies to franchisees, especially in Canada. Supply-chain sales are its largest single revenue category. Sales to diners at company-operated restaurants are another substantial source of revenue. Most of those restaurants came from the Carrols acquisition, and the company plans to return the vast majority of the acquired restaurants to franchise ownership.

The business depends on franchisees maintaining sales, paying their obligations and financing restaurant openings and reinvestment. Internationally, it also relies on master franchise partners to develop markets and oversee local operators. Franchise laws and required approvals govern its ability to sell franchises; noncompliance can lead to bans or suspensions on franchise sales.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in QSR’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

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Moat

QSR says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • McDonald’s competes worldwide with Restaurant Brands International’s Burger King for quick-service burger customers; both collect sales-based royalties and rent from franchisees. Watch McDonald’s franchised restaurant sales as a comparison for the burger spending that feeds Burger King’s royalty income.

  • Yum! Brands’ KFC competes directly with Restaurant Brands International’s Popeyes, while its other quick-service brands vie for affordable-meal customers and franchise expansion. Yum collects sales-based fees from franchisees, making KFC’s restaurant sales and openings useful comparisons for Popeyes’ sales and expansion.

  • Domino’s competes for quick-service meals with Restaurant Brands International’s brands, and both earn money by charging franchisees for brand use and selling them restaurant supplies. Domino’s food and product sales to franchisees, mainly in the U.S. and Canada, offer a comparison for Tim Hortons’ supply-chain revenue rather than burger sales alone.

  • Tims China depends on Restaurant Brands International’s brand rights to operate and franchise Tim Hortons coffee shops in mainland China, linking its store sales and expansion to the brand owner’s international franchise business. Watch sales of coffee, other drinks and prepared food, alongside store openings, for a direct view of Tim Hortons’ mainland China footprint.

  • Yum China’s KFC and other quick-service restaurants compete with Restaurant Brands International’s Burger King, Popeyes and Tim Hortons businesses in China. Yum China operates restaurants and licenses franchisees, collecting sales-based royalties; KFC’s restaurant expansion is a concrete comparison for the competition RBI’s China brands face.

  • Papa Johns’ pizza delivery and carryout restaurants compete with Restaurant Brands International’s brands for quick-service meal purchases, while both collect franchise royalties and sell supplies to their restaurant networks. Its North America commissary revenue—from distributing supplies to restaurants—is a useful comparison for Tim Hortons’ supply-chain business.

  • Restaurant Brands International’s Burger King depends on Coca-Cola for soft-drink syrup and is contractually committed to buying specified volumes. As of December 31, 2025, RBI estimated about three years remained to complete that commitment, making syrup supply and purchase terms the news to watch.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Coca-Cola Company earningsKO

    The Coca-Cola Company’s report may shed light on syrup supply and purchasing conditions, relevant because Burger King is committed to buying specified volumes of its syrup.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Restaurant Brands International Inc. earningsThis company

    Most Restaurant Brands International restaurants are franchised, and this report will show whether sales at existing restaurants and new openings together support its royalty and rent income.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Yum! Brands, Inc. earningsYUM

    Yum! Brands’ report will show KFC sales and openings, offering a read on the chicken-meal demand and franchise expansion environment facing Popeyes.

  2. Time to be announced

    Yum China Holdings, Inc. earningsYUMC

    Yum China’s report will show KFC sales and expansion in China, helping gauge the competition facing Restaurant Brands International’s brands there.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    McDonald's Corporation earningsMCD

    McDonald’s report will show how its franchised restaurant sales are changing, offering a comparison for Burger King’s sales-linked royalties and rent.

in 29 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced

    TH International Limited earningsTHCH

    Tims China’s sales and openings will show how Tim Hortons is attracting customers in mainland China, directly informing Restaurant Brands International’s brand-licensing opportunity there.