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What happened with USFD today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

USFD in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
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Company

Company overview

US Foods Holding Corp. operates through US Foods, which buys from outside suppliers and delivers ingredients and supplies to restaurants, hospitals, hotels and other foodservice customers across the United States. Food accounts for most sales, with meat and seafood the largest category; equipment and disposable supplies round out customers’ orders. Its warehouses and truck fleet handle scheduled deliveries, while CHEF’STORE gives operators a place to buy between deliveries.

Many products are priced at cost plus a markup. Profitability depends on managing purchasing and delivery costs while filling orders accurately and on time at competitive prices. Independent restaurants are its most profitable customers, partly because they are more likely to buy its higher-margin private-label products.

No single customer dominates sales, but group purchasing organizations negotiate terms for a substantial share of the business, and one such organization accounts for a significant portion. Those relationships influence pricing and customer retention. Most customers buy through individual purchase orders rather than committing to ongoing purchases, so US Foods must keep winning their orders.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in USFD’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

USFD says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Sysco’s U.S. broadline business competes with US Foods for food and related-product orders from restaurants, hospitality operators and institutional kitchens. Watch its business with these customers: buyers can switch suppliers easily, making price, product selection and dependable delivery important to US Foods’ ability to keep orders.

  • Performance Food Group Company competes with US Foods to sell and deliver a broad range of food and supplies to restaurants and institutional foodservice customers. Its Foodservice segment is the business to watch for this overlap, rather than its Convenience or Specialty segments.

  • The Chef's Warehouse Inc competes with US Foods for independent restaurants’ and hospitality operators’ spending on specialty ingredients, meat, seafood and everyday staples. Its sales to these customers offer a view of purchasing demand in two customer groups US Foods targets for growth.

  • HF Foods Group Inc. competes with US Foods for independent restaurant orders, but focuses more narrowly on Asian restaurants and their specialty ingredients. Watch its seafood and Asian specialty-product sales for a view of purchasing in that part of US Foods’ restaurant market, not restaurant demand overall.

  • US Foods buys egg and potato products from POST HOLDINGS, INC. to supply foodservice customers; US Foods and Sysco together accounted for 42% of Post’s Foodservice sales in fiscal 2025. Watch that segment’s egg and potato business for a supplier-side view of demand, though the disclosed share combines both distributors.

  • Aramark relies on US Foods among other distributors to track orders and deliver food and related products to locations where it provides dining and hospitality services for clients such as schools and healthcare organizations. Watch its dining business with these clients for demand reaching US Foods, while remembering that Aramark negotiates most U.S. and Canadian purchase terms directly with manufacturers.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    The Chef's Warehouse Inc earningsCHEF

    The Chef's Warehouse’s report will show whether independent restaurants and hospitality customers are buying specialty ingredients steadily, a demand signal for customer groups US Foods targets for growth.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    US Foods distributes food and other products to restaurants and institutions, and Fed rate decisions can change what it pays on variable-rate debt and leave less earnings after interest.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Sysco Corporation earningsSYY

    Sysco’s U.S. broadline report will show how orders and delivery economics are faring in the same restaurant, hospitality and institutional markets where it competes with US Foods.

in 17 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    US Foods Holding Corp. earningsThis company

    US Foods’ report will show whether growth in customer orders is adding enough gross profit to cover the cost of buying and delivering the food.

in 28 daysMon, Nov 16

  1. Time to be announced

    ARAMARK earningsARMK

    Aramark’s dining business at schools and healthcare organizations will show whether institutional meal demand is supporting food orders that distributors such as US Foods help deliver.

in 31 daysThu, Nov 19

  1. Time to be announced

    POST HOLDINGS, INC. earningsPOST

    Post Holdings’ Foodservice report will show demand for egg and potato products bought by US Foods, though the disclosed distributor sales combine US Foods with Sysco.