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What happened with GPN today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

GPN in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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Company

Company overview

Global Payments provides the systems merchants use to accept card and other digital payments, obtain payment authorization and receive funds. It brings these services into merchants’ daily operations through its own point-of-sale and business-management software and software owned by technology partners. It is bringing its own point-of-sale businesses together under the Genius brand. Following its acquisition of Worldpay and sale of Issuer Solutions to FIS, the business centers on merchant payments rather than processing card accounts for financial institutions.

Merchants pay mainly according to transaction value or a fee per transaction. For card payments, Global Payments retains the portion of the merchant’s processing charge left after fees paid to the card issuer and payment network. It also charges software subscription and licensing fees and fees for additional services, some of which do not depend on payment activity.

Revenue depends on merchants’ sales and the payment volume they send through its systems. Referral partners are an important source of new merchants, although the company is not significantly reliant on any single customer. Processing Visa and Mastercard payments requires network membership or registration and, in some markets, bank sponsorship. It also needs financial institutions to clear settlement payments; losing those arrangements without replacements can prevent it from serving affected merchants.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in GPN’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

GPN says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
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  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Global Payments’ results hinge on merchant payment volumes and competition in integrated commerce, so also watch rivals absent here: Adyen, Stripe, Block and Toast.

  • Fiserv competes with Global Payments for merchants paying to accept cards and combine payments with retail and restaurant checkout systems. Its transaction-processing and software business shows where Global Payments faces competition for those merchants.

  • Shift4 Payments, Inc. competes with Global Payments for merchants buying card acceptance, payment processing and checkout software. Watch its all-in-one offering versus its service that connects merchants to other processors—a payment gateway—to see how it competes for the same payment business.

  • PayPal competes with Global Payments to process merchants’ payments, especially online, and both earn transaction-related fees. PayPal’s payment activity is the relevant signal for this overlap, rather than its income from credit products or customer balances.

  • Shopify competes with Global Payments for merchants buying payment acceptance and commerce software, including checkout systems. Its POS Pro subscription business is a concrete place to watch competition with Global Payments’ Genius checkout software.

  • Global Payments depends on Visa’s network to process card payments for merchants, and more merchant card transactions benefit both businesses. Watch Visa’s processor-fee increases: Global Payments can lose earnings if it cannot pass those costs to merchants, or lose customers if merchants reject them.

  • Mastercard connects card-issuing banks with the firms that collect payments for merchants, supplying a network Global Payments uses; both earn more as merchant card payments grow. Changes to Mastercard’s network rules or processing access can restrict Global Payments’ ability to serve merchants.

  • Lightspeed Commerce Inc. competes with Global Payments’ Genius by selling retailers and restaurants checkout software with integrated payments. Its software subscriptions and payment revenue, particularly from North American retail and European hospitality customers, are the businesses to watch for this rivalry.

  • NCR Voyix Corporation competes with Global Payments to sell retailers and restaurants checkout software combined with payments, hardware and services. Watch recurring revenue from its Voyix Commerce Platform as it seeks to earn more from these commerce customers.

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  • EVERTEC, INC. competes with Global Payments to help merchants accept cards, process transactions and receive settled funds. Its merchant-acquiring business in Latin America, Puerto Rico and the Caribbean is the relevant business to watch, rather than its banking software and outsourcing services.

  • Paysafe Limited competes with Global Payments for merchants paying for card acceptance, connections to payment processors and payments embedded in software. Watch its Merchant Solutions payment volume and transaction-fee revenue, rather than its separate Digital Wallets business.

  • Priority Technology Holdings, Inc. competes with Global Payments to help merchants accept payments, but also pays it to route and authorize transactions and handle clearing and settlement. Priority’s merchant payment activity therefore matters to Global Payments as customer business as well as competition.

  • Repay Holdings Corporation competes with Global Payments for payments embedded in merchants’ software, but also pays it to obtain transaction authorization, typically by transaction count. Watch Repay’s consumer-payment activity, including personal and automotive loan payments, for the customer side of this relationship.

  • DLocal Limited competes with Global Payments to help large enterprise merchants accept online payments, with a focus on emerging markets. Its fees from merchants’ cross-border and local transactions show the part of its business that overlaps with Global Payments’ international commerce offering.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    VISA Inc. earningsV

    Global Payments relies on Visa’s network to process merchants’ card payments, so Visa’s report can shed light on card activity and network fees that affect Global Payments’ transaction base and costs.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Global Payments processes merchant payments and pays interest on debt and settlement-funding lines, so changes in borrowing rates can alter its financing costs and cash flow.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Global Payments, Inc. earningsThis company

    Global Payments earns fees from merchant transactions and payment software, and this report will show whether growth in integrated payments and software can offset weakness in point-of-sale software and core processing and lift operating profit.

  2. Time to be announced

    Fiserv, Inc. earningsFISV

    Fiserv also sells card processing and checkout systems to merchants, so its report offers a read on demand for the services Global Payments sells to the same market.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    Priority Technology Holdings, Inc. earningsPRTH

    Priority Technology Holdings competes for merchant payments but also pays Global Payments to process transactions, so its report offers a signal from both a rival and a customer.

in 17 daysFri, Nov 6

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)

    Global Payments processes merchants’ payments, and because many of its personnel costs do not move directly with transaction levels, payroll growth can change its costs even though the filing does not identify jobs data as a direct driver of customer demand.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Global Payments charges transaction-based fees to process payments for merchants, so retail sales track spending that can change merchants’ payment volume and the company’s transaction revenue.