LSPD in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with LSPD today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Lightspeed Commerce helps small and medium-sized merchants run stores and restaurants, particularly businesses with multiple locations or complex operating needs. Lightspeed Retail and Lightspeed Restaurant combine checkout, inventory and operating tools with online selling and payment acceptance. Its main focus is retailers in North America and hospitality businesses in Europe.
Merchants pay software subscription charges and fees based on the value of payments Lightspeed processes for them. Transaction-based services, chiefly payment processing, provide most revenue; subscriptions are the other main source. Some merchants use integrated third-party processors that share processing revenue with Lightspeed. The company sells point-of-sale software and payments together and generally requires eligible customers to use its payments service, although partner contracts restrict switching some customers.
The business depends on retaining merchants, expanding their use of its services and routing more of their sales through Lightspeed payments. It relies on payment partners such as Stripe and Adyen to process transactions and access card networks. Payment laws and network rules govern these services, and noncompliance can cost Lightspeed its ability to process card payments.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Lightspeed’s growth hinges on merchant sales and adoption of integrated payments, making unlisted rivals Toast and Block’s Square, along with processing partners Stripe and Adyen, important companies to watch.
Shopify competes with Lightspeed for merchants paying for commerce subscriptions, online selling tools and retail checkout software. Watch Shopify’s POS Pro subscriptions for a view of the retail software business where they overlap.
Shift4 Payments competes with Lightspeed to sell merchants a single package of payment acceptance, checkout software and commerce tools. Its end-to-end payment offering is the business to watch against Lightspeed’s push to bundle software with payments.
NCR Voyix competes with Lightspeed for retailers and restaurant operators buying software, hardware and payment services together. Watch recurring revenue from its Voyix Commerce Platform, which it aims to grow within these same customer markets.
Fiserv is both a rival and a supplier to Lightspeed: Clover sells merchants checkout software and payments, while First Data processes payments for certain Lightspeed customers.
Global Payments competes with Lightspeed through Genius, which combines checkout software and payment processing for retailers and restaurants. Watch its rollout of Genius through its distribution channels as it brings these bundled offerings to merchants globally.
PayPal processes payments for Lightspeed, and both earn transaction fees tied to merchants’ payment activity. Watch PayPal service disruptions: problems with this significant supplier could interrupt Lightspeed’s payment services and reduce revenue.
Commerce.com competes with Lightspeed eCommerce through BigCommerce, selling merchants software to build online stores and run online commerce. BigCommerce is the product to watch here, rather than Commerce.com’s broader product portfolio.
Shopify Inc. earningsSHOP
Shopify’s report will show whether merchants are still paying for retail checkout software, a market where Shopify and Lightspeed compete for retailers.
Watch Shopify’s POS Pro subscriptions. Growth would show retailers still pay for fuller checkout and store-management software, supporting demand in the retail market Lightspeed serves. Slower uptake would point to weaker demand for these paid tools and less room for Lightspeed to win retail customers or sell them more software.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. earningsThis company
Lightspeed Commerce earns most of its revenue from payment fees and subscriptions, and this report will show whether merchants’ transactions are bringing in more per location without eroding gross margin.
Read gross payment volume (GPV) and monthly average revenue per user, measured per Customer Location, together with gross margin. If all rise, merchants are processing more through Lightspeed and generating more revenue per location without the added payment activity diluting margin. If GPV rises but revenue per location stalls or gross margin falls, transaction growth is not translating into more revenue from each merchant location, or payment costs are taking a larger share.
Retail Sales MoM (Oct)
Lightspeed’s retail sales readings track how much consumers spend at retailers; stronger merchant sales can lift processed transaction volume and the percentage-based payment fees Lightspeed earns.
Read stronger retail sales as support for Lightspeed merchants’ payment volume and percentage-based processing fees; weaker sales point to pressure on both.