Stock daily read

What happened with ELF today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ELF in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

e.l.f. Beauty owns e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium and Well People. Its brands offer makeup, skin care and beauty tools at accessible prices relative to their competitors. Retailers buy its products to sell to shoppers, providing most of the company’s revenue; the rest comes through its own websites and apps and third-party online channels. The United States is its largest market.

Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora together account for a large share of sales. These customers have no obligation to keep buying, so consumer demand must translate into repeat orders and continued shelf space. Retailers’ holiday stocking and changes to shelf assortments also influence order timing. Keeping products relevant as beauty trends change is central to sustaining demand.

The company relies on outside manufacturers, primarily in China, to make its products, making supply availability and U.S. tariffs important to costs and pricing. Product rules also limit what it can sell and claim: its U.S. sunscreen and acne treatments must meet FDA requirements for nonprescription drugs, or it may need to reformulate them, change claims or stop selling them pending approval.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ELF’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ELF says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

e.l.f. Beauty’s results hinge on makeup and skin-care demand and winning retailer shelf space against major beauty groups—including L’Oréal, an important rival missing from this list.

  • Coty competes with e.l.f. Beauty for makeup shoppers and shelf space in mass retailers, drugstores and online stores. Watch Coty’s mass-market color cosmetics sales for clues to demand in the channels where e.l.f. sells.

  • Estée Lauder competes with e.l.f. Beauty for consumers’ makeup and skin-care spending, though much of its range carries prestige prices. Its makeup and skin-care sales offer a view of demand at the higher-priced end, rather than a direct read on e.l.f.’s more accessible brands.

  • ODDITY Tech Ltd.’s IL MAKIAGE and other beauty brands compete with e.l.f. Beauty for online makeup and skin-care customers, generally at higher prices. Watch IL MAKIAGE’s online beauty sales for clues to demand among shoppers buying beauty products online.

  • Kenvue’s Neutrogena and Aveeno skin-care products compete with e.l.f. SKIN and Naturium for the same mass-market skin-care shoppers.

  • Unilever competes with e.l.f. Beauty for consumers’ skin-care spending through its skin-care and prestige-beauty businesses, but its food and household products make overall results less comparable. Watch its skin-care and prestige-beauty sales rather than total revenue for a closer view of the demand e.l.f.’s skin-care brands face.

Agenda

in 12 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced

    Kenvue Inc. earningsKVUE

    Kenvue’s report will show whether its mass-market skin-care brands are selling more or less to shoppers who also have e.l.f. SKIN and Naturium to choose from.

in 14 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. earningsThis company

    This report will show whether e.l.f. Beauty’s brands can keep driving sales while pricing and product costs leave profit in the business.

  2. Time to be announced

    COTY INC earningsCOTY

    Coty’s report will show how mass-market color cosmetics are selling in retail and online channels where it and e.l.f. Beauty compete.

in 27 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track how much consumers spend at stores, a key route for e.l.f. Beauty’s cosmetics and skin care; stronger spending can support retailer orders for its products and the revenue those orders bring.

in 28 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced

    ODDITY Tech Ltd. earningsODD

    ODDITY Tech’s report will show whether online beauty demand is holding up among shoppers its generally higher-priced brands share with e.l.f. Beauty.