Stock daily read

What happened with EL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

EL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

The Estée Lauder Companies owns beauty brands including Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C and La Mer. Skin care is its largest sales category, followed by makeup; together they account for most revenue. It also sells fragrance and hair care products, manufacturing primarily in its own facilities and using third-party manufacturers as well.

Retailers pay the company for products they resell through department stores, beauty shops, duty-free stores and online channels. Consumers also buy directly through its stores, brand websites and third-party online platforms.

The business depends on keeping its brands appealing as beauty preferences and shopping habits change. Travel retail contributes significantly to results, making purchases by international travelers important. Most online sales come from mainland China, the United States and the United Kingdom. Some product supply chains also depend on materials available from a single supplier.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in EL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

EL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Estée Lauder’s results hinge on prestige-beauty demand, especially from Chinese consumers and travel retail, making L’Oréal a major competitor to watch despite its absence from this list.

  • Coty competes with Estée Lauder for shoppers buying prestige fragrance, makeup and skin care through department stores, beauty retailers and duty-free shops. Watch Coty’s prestige sales through these shared retail channels rather than its mass-market beauty business.

  • Interparfums competes with Estée Lauder for prestige-fragrance buyers, selling branded perfumes and related products. Its fragrance sales offer a focused comparison for Estée Lauder’s fragrance business, rather than its makeup or skin care.

  • Unilever competes with Estée Lauder for consumers buying prestige beauty, skin care and hair care, but also sells substantial amounts of food and household products. Its Beauty & Wellbeing sales are a closer comparison for Estée Lauder than its overall revenue.

  • e.l.f. Beauty challenges Estée Lauder for makeup and skin-care buyers with lower-priced alternatives inspired by prestige products, sold through retailers and online. Watch launches from e.l.f. Cosmetics and e.l.f. SKIN for the cheaper alternatives those shoppers can choose.

  • Yatsen competes with Estée Lauder for Chinese consumers buying makeup and skin care—a customer group important to Estée Lauder’s sales.

  • ODDITY Tech Ltd.’s IL MAKIAGE and other online beauty brands compete with Estée Lauder’s makeup and skin-care brands for shoppers buying directly from brands. IL MAKIAGE’s online sales are the part to watch when comparing competition for those purchases.

  • Procter & Gamble competes with Estée Lauder for premium skin-care buyers through SK-II and also competes in hair care, but beauty is only one part of its diversified consumer-products business.

Agenda

in 12 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. earningsThis company

    Estée Lauder’s report will show whether skin-care and makeup sales can grow while the company preserves the gross margin left after product costs.

in 14 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    COTY INC earningsCOTY

    Coty’s report will show how prestige beauty is selling through department stores, beauty retailers and duty-free shops, channels Estée Lauder also uses.

  2. Time to be announced

    e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. earningsELF

    e.l.f. Beauty’s report will show how its lower-priced makeup and skin-care alternatives are selling to shoppers Estée Lauder also seeks.

  3. Time to be announced

    Interparfums, Inc. earningsIPAR

    Interparfums’ report will show how prestige fragrance is selling, offering a focused demand comparison for Estée Lauder’s fragrance business.

in 27 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track how much consumers spend at stores, and weaker spending could mean fewer purchases of Estée Lauder’s prestige beauty products through retail partners and its own stores.

in 28 daysWed, Nov 18

  1. Time to be announced

    ODDITY Tech Ltd. earningsODD

    ODDITY Tech’s report will show how IL MAKIAGE sells online, revealing whether shoppers are buying makeup and skin care through a direct channel that competes with Estée Lauder.

in 34 daysTue, Nov 24

  1. Time to be announced

    Yatsen Holding Limited earningsYSG

    Yatsen’s report will show how Chinese consumers are buying its makeup and skin care, products competing for customers Estée Lauder also seeks.