CVI in three months: buy, wait or sell?
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
- 3-month target price
- Bear · Base · Bull
- vs. the market
What happened with CVI today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
CVR Energy’s petroleum business brings in most of its revenue. Its Coffeyville refinery in Kansas and Wynnewood refinery in Oklahoma supply retailers and other fuel marketers, mainly in the central United States. It has no crude-oil production or retail business: it buys its inputs and depends on other companies to sell the finished fuel to end users.
Refining profit depends on the gap between fuel selling prices and crude-oil costs, after processing, transportation and compliance costs. Nearby crude-gathering operations and a supply agreement with Gunvor USA LLC provide substantially all its crude, while pipelines carry inputs and finished products. Unless exempted, its refining subsidiaries must meet federal renewable-fuel requirements; because they cannot blend renewable fuels into most of their output, they generally need to buy compliance credits known as RINs.
CVR Energy also owns a stake in publicly traded CVR Partners, which makes nitrogen fertilizer for agriculture. Most fertilizer sales come from urea ammonium nitrate solution, or UAN, sold mainly to retailers and distributors; ammonia serves agricultural and industrial customers. Earnings depend on fertilizer prices, seasonal farm demand and the cost of petroleum coke and natural gas used in production. Two customers account for a sizeable share of fertilizer sales. CVR Energy receives only its share of CVR Partners’ distributions, not all the cash that business generates.
The Wynnewood unit formerly made renewable diesel from vegetable oils, a business heavily dependent on government credits. CVR Energy returned it to conventional petroleum processing because of unfavorable economics, retaining the option to restart renewable-diesel production if incentives justify it.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
CVR Energy’s refining and fertilizer margins sit alongside two dependencies to watch: Gunvor supplied 23% of its crude purchases in 2025, while Icahn Enterprises and affiliates controlled approximately 70% of its stock.
HF Sinclair Corporation’s El Dorado and Tulsa refineries compete directly with CVR Energy’s nearby plants selling gasoline and diesel to regional fuel buyers. Watch its refining results for how the gap between fuel selling prices and crude costs is changing in the Mid-Continent.
Valero Energy’s Ardmore refinery competes with CVR Energy’s Oklahoma and Kansas plants for regional transportation-fuel buyers, including retailers and wholesalers. Its gasoline and diesel refining margins offer a comparison for CVR’s exposure to crude costs and fuel regulations.
Phillips 66’s Ponca refinery competes with CVR Energy for regional gasoline and diesel customers; Phillips 66 sells through branded outlets and wholesale marketers, while CVR supplies retailers and other fuel buyers. Watch the profitability of those fuels against crude costs, rather than Phillips 66’s pipeline or chemicals businesses.
CVR Partners’ fertilizer results feed directly into CVR Energy’s consolidated accounts: at December 31, 2025, CVR owned its general partner and approximately 37% of its units, and supplied petroleum coke used to make hydrogen at Coffeyville. Watch sales of liquid nitrogen fertilizer, UAN, to agricultural retailers and distributors, and ammonia to agricultural and industrial customers.
Delek US Holdings, Inc. and CVR Energy both refine petroleum for inland U.S. transportation-fuel buyers, making Delek a comparison for inland refining margins rather than a named nearby refinery rival. Watch its transportation-fuel business, distinct from its industrial products and storage and distribution services.
PBF Energy and CVR Energy both supply unbranded gasoline and diesel, including in Mid-Continent markets; PBF sells to commercial accounts and major oil companies. Its refining results provide a comparison for fuel margins and compliance costs, but span more regions than CVR’s markets.
Marathon Petroleum and CVR Energy both turn crude into gasoline and diesel sold to retailers and wholesale fuel buyers, so their refining businesses share exposure to fuel demand and margins. Watch Marathon’s gasoline and diesel sales rather than treating its logistics or renewable-diesel results as a read-through to CVR’s refineries.
CF Industries competes with CVR Energy’s fertilizer business in ammonia, liquid nitrogen fertilizer known as UAN, and urea sold for agricultural use; CVR says CF sells far more nitrogen fertilizer in the U.S. than other participants. Watch CF’s product gross margins for the pricing pressure facing CVR’s fertilizer sales.
LSB INDUSTRIES INC and CVR Energy’s fertilizer business compete for overlapping U.S. agricultural buyers of ammonia and liquid nitrogen fertilizer, UAN. Watch LSB’s sales to ranch-land and grain-production markets, where delivered prices and freight access matter more to this comparison than its industrial chemicals.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. and CVR Energy both earn refining profits from the gap between fuel selling prices and crude costs, although their main markets differ. Par Pacific’s refining results are the useful comparison—not its fuel-outlet sales across Hawaii, Washington and Idaho.
Nutrien’s nitrogen manufacturing business competes with CVR Energy’s fertilizer operations for agricultural demand, but its retail, potash and phosphate businesses make the whole company a less direct comparison. Watch its Nitrogen segment rather than total fertilizer sales for a signal about CVR’s nitrogen-fertilizer business.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)
CVR Energy’s refineries buy all their crude and sell gasoline and diesel at market-linked prices, so US crude and fuel stock changes can shift the prices they pay and receive, refining margins and the value of stored inventory.
Read the stock changes as a supply signal, not a direct measure of CVR Energy’s sales: rising stocks can pressure product prices and inventory values, while falling stocks can support them; the effect on refining margins depends on how product prices move relative to crude costs.
HF Sinclair Corporation earningsDINO
HF Sinclair Corporation’s report will show whether the gap between fuel prices and crude costs is shifting in the Mid-Continent markets where it and CVR Energy compete for fuel buyers.
Focus on HF Sinclair’s refining results, not its company-wide earnings: its El Dorado and Tulsa refineries compete with CVR Energy for some of the same regional fuel buyers. Wider refining margins would signal that fuel prices are covering crude costs better in this market, a more supportive backdrop for CVR; narrower margins would signal more pressure, but would not prove CVR’s own margins moved by the same amount.
CVR Partners, LP earningsUAN
CVR Partners, LP’s report will show whether ammonia and UAN prices and sales volumes leave a profit after production costs for CVR Energy’s fertilizer business.
Read UAN and ammonia prices and sales volumes alongside production costs. Firmer prices or volumes with costs under control would show CVR Partners adding more support to CVR Energy’s consolidated results; weaker sales or higher costs would reduce that contribution. CVR Energy’s refinery also supplies petroleum coke used to make hydrogen at the Coffeyville fertilizer facility, linking the businesses through an input.
CVR ENERGY, INC. earningsThis company
CVR Energy’s report will show whether gasoline and diesel prices are covering crude costs well enough to support refining profit, and whether fertilizer adds support.
Read refining margin per throughput barrel alongside refinery throughput, then compare fertilizer prices and sales volumes. A rising margin with steady throughput, alongside firmer fertilizer prices or volumes, would show both refining and fertilizer supporting CVR Energy; weaker refinery margins or throughput and softer fertilizer sales would leave earnings more exposed to fuel-feedstock spreads and agricultural demand.
CF Industries Holding, Inc. earningsCF
CF Industries’ report will show whether market pricing for ammonia and UAN is strengthening or weakening, a signal for CVR Energy’s fertilizer sales.
Focus on CF Industries’ nitrogen business product margins and sales, not its company-wide results. Stronger nitrogen-product margins would mean selling prices are holding up better relative to production costs, a potentially more supportive market for CVR Energy’s ammonia and UAN; weaker margins would signal more pricing pressure. CF’s costs and product mix differ from CVR’s, so this is a market signal, not a direct comparison of the two companies’ profits.