Stock daily read

What happened with PBF today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

PBF in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

PBF Energy buys crude oil and other feedstocks from outside suppliers and processes them at its U.S. refineries. Commercial customers and major oil companies buy its output, with gasoline, diesel and jet fuel providing most of its revenue. Most sales use short-term contracts or the spot market. Shell is a significant customer. PBF Energy neither produces its own crude oil nor operates a retail business, so it relies on outside suppliers and others to market its products.

Its earnings depend mainly on the gap between fuel selling prices and the cost of crude oil, other feedstocks and refinery operations. Higher crude prices can squeeze that gap if fuel prices do not rise as quickly or as much.

Fuel and environmental rules also shape its operations. It must meet renewable-fuel blending obligations, which can require buying compliance credits, and California emissions and low-carbon-fuel requirements. Its refineries need environmental permits; violations can lead to operating restrictions or shutdowns.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in PBF’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

PBF says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

PBF’s results hinge on refining margins and keeping refineries running, but also watch Shell, absent from this list and its largest customer at about 13% of revenue in both 2025 and 2024.

  • Valero and PBF compete for overlapping wholesale and bulk buyers, including petroleum companies, by making and selling transportation fuels. Watch Valero’s refining business for changes in the gap between gasoline and diesel selling prices and crude costs—the same margin driver matters to PBF.

  • Marathon Petroleum and PBF both turn crude oil into gasoline and distillates for U.S. wholesale and bulk fuel buyers, exposing them to the same refining-margin pressures. Marathon’s gasoline and diesel sales offer a concrete view of demand from those buyers.

  • Phillips 66 competes with PBF to supply gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to wholesale and unbranded markets, including the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts. Its sales to unbranded fuel buyers in those regions are more relevant to PBF than its broader chemicals or pipeline businesses.

  • HF Sinclair and PBF use complex U.S. refineries to make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for domestic buyers, so fuel margins and crude discounts matter to both. Watch the discount on heavy or sour crude that HF Sinclair can process: narrower discounts can also raise PBF’s crude costs.

  • Delek US Holdings, Inc. and PBF share exposure to domestic transportation-fuel refining margins; both refine petroleum for U.S. buyers and operate supporting fuel logistics. Delek’s fuel sales, mainly to inland U.S. customers, provide a more relevant comparison than its pipeline and storage competition.

  • Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. and PBF both operate western U.S. refineries that earn money from the gap between purchased crude costs and fuel selling prices, though their local markets differ. Par Pacific’s refining results are the useful comparison for PBF, rather than sales at its fuel outlets in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho.

  • CVR Energy and PBF sell refinery-made transportation fuels into U.S. Mid-Continent markets, supplying buyers through truck-loading terminals and product pipelines. Watch CVR’s petroleum business for renewable-fuel compliance costs, which also weigh on PBF’s refining earnings.

  • Cenovus Energy’s Toledo and Lima refineries compete for fuel buyers in the same region as PBF’s Toledo refinery, but Cenovus’s oil production partly offsets its refining exposure to heavy-crude price gaps. Watch its U.S. refining margins rather than group earnings when comparing regional gasoline and diesel conditions with PBF.

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  • Sunoco buys gasoline and distillates representing about one-third of PBF’s Toledo refinery production and resells fuel to dealers, distributors and commercial customers. Watch its purchase agreement, due to expire in June 2027 with certain early-termination rights and a possible one-year extension by mutual agreement.

  • Eni, through Enilive, and PBF each own 50% of St. Bernard Renewables, which makes renewable diesel at Chalmette, giving them a direct stake in the same operation. Watch Enilive’s news on that facility and biofeedstock supply, rather than Eni’s wider oil and gas sales.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. 10:30 AMET

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)

    US crude oil and gasoline stock levels show how much feedstock is available to PBF Energy’s six refineries and how plentiful fuel is in the markets where it sells gasoline and distillates, which can shift its crude costs, product prices and refining margins.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Valero Energy Corporation earningsVLO

    Valero competes with PBF for wholesale fuel buyers, and its refining margin will show whether the gap between gasoline and diesel prices and crude costs is widening or narrowing in their shared market.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    PBF ENERGY INC. earningsThis company

    PBF turns crude into gasoline and diesel for wholesale buyers, and its report will show whether the gap between fuel prices and crude and energy costs is letting its refineries turn sales into profit.