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What happened with CHRW today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CHRW in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
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  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

C.H. Robinson Worldwide helps businesses move goods by finding carriers, arranging shipments and tracking delivery. Most revenue comes from transportation and logistics, led by North American truck transportation; it also arranges international ocean and air freight and customs clearance. It owns very little transportation equipment. Employees use its Navisphere platform to match customers’ shipping needs with contracted carriers.

For most shipments, the customer pays C.H. Robinson, which contracts with and pays the carrier and takes responsibility for transportation from origin to destination. Its earnings depend on the gap between customer charges and purchased transportation costs. It often buys truck capacity at current market rates even when customer prices are set by contract, so rising carrier prices can squeeze that gap. The business depends on carriers’ available capacity and service, but no single customer or contracted motor carrier dominates it.

A smaller business, Robinson Fresh, buys, sells and markets fresh produce for grocery retailers, restaurants, foodservice distributors and wholesalers.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CHRW’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CHRW says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • RXO competes directly with C.H. Robinson for shippers paying to arrange truck transport or manage their freight operations; both use independent carriers and digital pricing platforms. RXO's truck brokerage and managed transportation results are the closest comparisons for those Robinson businesses.

  • Landstar System Inc competes with C.H. Robinson to arrange truckload and other freight transport for paying shippers, with both relying on third-party capacity rather than large owned fleets. Landstar reaches customers through independent sales agents, making its freight business a comparison for Robinson's carrier-network model.

  • Expeditors competes with C.H. Robinson for international shippers: both buy space from carriers and sell customers the service of arranging their freight. Its airfreight revenue is a useful comparison for Robinson's Global Forwarding air business, rather than its North American truck brokerage.

  • ArcBest Corporation competes with C.H. Robinson for shippers paying to arrange full truckloads, outsource transportation management or buy broader freight services. Its MoLo truckload brokerage is the closest comparison; ABF Freight instead operates the network that carries customers' smaller, shared-truck shipments.

  • J.B. Hunt competes with C.H. Robinson for shippers buying freight-arranging services and transport across multiple modes, through Integrated Capacity Solutions and its rail-linked intermodal offering. Watch those businesses rather than treating all of J.B. Hunt's trucking and delivery revenue as a direct comparison.

  • TFI International Inc. competes with C.H. Robinson for U.S. and Canadian shippers paying others to arrange freight and manage transportation without relying on owned fleets. Its Logistics segment's brokerage, forwarding and transportation-management services are the relevant comparison, not its large trucking fleet.

  • Radiant Logistics competes with C.H. Robinson to arrange truck freight and international air and ocean shipments, with both earning the difference between shipper charges and carrier payments. Radiant's gross margin offers a comparison for how much these freight-arranging services retain after paying transport providers.

  • Forward Air competes with C.H. Robinson for customers paying for international freight arrangements and customized logistics, through Omni Logistics and its forwarding services. Its stronger emphasis on expedited transit, tight delivery windows and special handling makes premium-service demand the relevant area to watch.

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  • Knight-Swift competes for shippers also served by C.H. Robinson's brokerage network, offering full-truckload transport, smaller shared-truck shipments and third-party logistics. Unlike Robinson, it combines substantial owned fleets with outside carriers, so its Logistics business is a closer comparison than fleet size.

  • Schneider National's truckload transport and C.H. Robinson's service arranging trucks for shippers face the same North American freight-demand and capacity cycle, but higher carrier rates can squeeze Robinson's margin. Schneider's truckload pricing is worth watching because Robinson buys most truckload capacity at spot rates, even for customers on contracts.

  • Old Dominion Freight Line carries customers' smaller shipments that share truck space, while C.H. Robinson arranges that transport; both face U.S. shipment demand and less-than-truckload rates. Old Dominion's LTL volumes and pricing offer a view of Robinson's market, with demand tied to U.S. industrial production and the domestic economy.

  • XPO carries shippers' smaller, shared-truck loads in North America, while C.H. Robinson arranges substantial volumes of the same freight, exposing both to shipment demand and carrier rates. XPO's North American LTL volumes and pricing are the relevant signals, rather than its European transportation business.

  • Saia carries customers' smaller shipments that share truck space, while C.H. Robinson arranges substantial amounts of that freight, so Saia's volumes and prices help track Robinson's U.S. LTL market. LTL accounts for approximately 97% of Saia's revenue, making those trends more informative than its other logistics services.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. earningsThis company

    C.H. Robinson's report will show whether its North American truck brokerage is turning truckload and LTL shipments into more adjusted gross profit, or whether pricing is squeezing what it keeps.

  2. Time to be announced

    Old Dominion Freight Line earningsODFL

    Old Dominion Freight Line's report will show how U.S. LTL shipment volumes and rates are moving in a market where C.H. Robinson arranges similar freight for shippers.

  3. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s rate decision matters to C. H. Robinson because it can change interest paid on the company’s short-term floating-rate debt, affecting money left after financing costs.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Schneider National, Inc. earningsSNDR

    Schneider National's report will show how truckload rates and freight activity are moving, a cost signal for C.H. Robinson, which buys much of its truck capacity at spot rates.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. earningsEXPD

    Expeditors' report will show how international airfreight volumes and revenue per unit are moving, a market signal for C.H. Robinson's air-forwarding business.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    RXO, Inc. earningsRXO

    RXO's report will show how truck-brokerage loads and gross profit per load are moving in a market where C.H. Robinson also arranges truck transport through independent carriers.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track consumer spending at retailers; for C. H. Robinson, stronger or weaker sales can change retailers’ shipments and the freight-service revenue it earns by arranging their transport.

  2. 9:15 AMET pre-market

    Industrial Production MoM (Oct)

    Industrial production tracks output from factories, mines and utilities; for C. H. Robinson, that can change manufacturers’ shipments and the freight-service revenue it earns by charging customers to arrange their transport.