What happened with RXO today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Business customers pay RXO, Inc. to move freight, but independent carriers generally provide the trucks and drivers. Truck brokerage brings in most of its revenue: RXO finds carriers for customers’ loads and charges prices agreed by contract or set for individual shipments. Its RXO Connect platform lets shippers post loads and carriers find, bid on and book them. The difference between customer charges and carrier costs must cover RXO’s own operating expenses.
RXO also manages transportation for businesses that outsource freight planning and coordination, and arranges delivery of heavy goods to consumers through third-party contractors. Its customers are businesses, not the consumers receiving those deliveries. Most revenue comes from the United States.
The business depends on customers’ shipping needs and independent carriers’ available capacity and prices. Carrier costs can rise faster than the rates RXO has promised customers, squeezing its margin. Major customers supply a substantial share of revenue, with the largest customer alone contributing a meaningful portion. Its last-mile contractor model also faces legal challenges over whether delivery workers should be treated as employees.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
RXO’s results hinge on truckload demand and the gap between shipper prices and carrier costs; watch C.H. Robinson, a major direct brokerage rival missing from this list.
Landstar System Inc competes with RXO for shippers’ truck freight: both arrange transport through outside carriers rather than relying on their own fleets. Landstar’s truck freight business is the closest comparison for RXO’s largest revenue line, truck brokerage.
J.B. Hunt competes with RXO for customers paying to arrange freight, outsource transportation and deliver goods to their final destination. Watch its freight brokerage and Final Mile Services results rather than treating its rail-linked freight business as a direct comparison for RXO.
ArcBest Corporation competes directly with RXO to arrange truckloads for shippers through MoLo, manage their transportation and move urgent freight by road through Panther. Its Asset-Light segment, which includes MoLo and Panther, is the relevant comparison—not ABF’s terminal-based less-than-truckload business.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings sells truckload transport and arranges freight for the shippers whose loads RXO brokers. Its Truckload and Logistics results offer a view of that competing business, but its use of a large owned fleet makes it different from RXO’s outside-carrier model.
Schneider National, Inc. competes with RXO for shippers’ truckload freight, both by hauling it and by arranging carriers through its freight brokerage business.
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.’s Managed Freight business competes with RXO to arrange carriers and manage transportation for shippers without relying on owned trucks. Watch this business rather than Covenant’s whole company: it supplied about 27% of 2025 freight revenue, which excludes fuel surcharges.
Werner Enterprises Inc sells dry-van, expedited and dedicated truckload services to retail and manufacturing shippers that RXO serves by arranging carriers and managing transportation. Watch Werner’s dedicated services for retail distribution centers and manufacturing facilities for a comparison with these RXO customer groups.
Ryder System competes with RXO for customers outsourcing transportation management and final delivery, combining these tasks with other supply-chain services. Its Supply Chain Solutions business is the relevant place to watch this overlap, rather than its vehicle leasing and maintenance business.
Marten Transport competes with RXO by hauling truckloads and arranging carriers for shippers, with a stronger focus on temperature-sensitive goods. Those goods accounted for about 59% of Marten’s Truckload and Dedicated revenue in 2025, making its freight mix different from RXO’s broader brokerage business.
Heartland Express sells dry-van truckload transport directly to major U.S. shippers that could instead use RXO to arrange a carrier. Its results are most relevant to shorter-haul freight: about 77% of its loads traveled less than 500 miles in 2025.
Forward Air competes with RXO for customers paying for urgent transport, arrangements for air and ocean freight, and customized outsourced logistics. Its expedited services with tight delivery windows and special handling are the clearest comparison for RXO’s time-critical transportation offering.
Expeditors competes with RXO to handle customers’ outsourced freight logistics and buy transport capacity for resale to them, but focuses more on international air and ocean forwarding. Its airfreight services supplied about 36% of 2025 revenue, so its results are a closer comparison for RXO’s forwarding services than its core truck brokerage.
Ryder System, Inc. earningsR
Ryder's Supply Chain Solutions results show shipper demand for outsourced transportation management and final delivery, services that overlap with RXO's.
Look at revenue and operating income in Ryder's Supply Chain Solutions business, not its vehicle leasing business. If both hold up, shippers are still using and paying for outsourced transportation services, supporting demand for RXO's managed transportation and last-mile work. If either weakens, demand or the earnings available in those shared services may be under pressure.
Landstar System Inc earningsLSTR
Landstar's truck-freight business is the closest comparison for RXO's truck brokerage, showing how shipper demand and carrier costs are moving.
Read Landstar's truck-freight activity and revenue alongside what it pays carriers. Firm freight activity without carrier costs rising faster than customer rates would point to demand and pricing conditions that support RXO's brokerage business. Weaker freight or carrier costs outpacing customer rates would signal pressure on RXO's loads or on what it keeps per shipment.
RXO, Inc. earningsThis company
More freight arranged by RXO improves its operating results only if enough revenue remains after it pays carriers.
Read truck brokerage revenue alongside transportation and services costs as a share of revenue, then check the operating result. Revenue growth with a lower cost share and a narrower operating loss would mean RXO is keeping more of each dollar and turning more freight into operating earnings. A rising cost share with the loss still in place would mean carrier costs are consuming the revenue, so a larger business has not yet produced better operating results.
