Stock daily read

What happened with AUB today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

AUB in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation serves businesses and individuals through its wholly owned Atlantic Union Bank, primarily in Virginia, Maryland, Washington, D.C. and the Carolinas. Customers deposit money with the bank and borrow to finance property, business operations and personal needs. Deposits provide most of the funding for lending and investments. The interest earned after paying funding costs is its principal revenue source. Customers also pay fees for services such as managing business cash and payments, managing investments and arranging financing.

Commercial real estate accounts for most of the loan portfolio. Repayment depends heavily on borrowers’ business cash flows and, for rental properties, tenants’ ability to pay rent. Local economic and property conditions therefore matter directly to the business. Earnings also depend on retaining deposits and on how quickly loan and deposit rates change relative to one another.

Banking rules require adequate capital and liquidity and limit activities such as lending and acquisitions; debit-card interchange fees are capped. The parent company receives substantially all of its own revenue through subsidiary dividends, chiefly from Atlantic Union Bank, whose payments are restricted by capital requirements and banking rules.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in AUB’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

AUB says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • United Bankshares Inc, through United Bank, competes with Atlantic Union for business borrowers, mortgage customers and deposits across Virginia, Washington, D.C. and the Carolinas.

  • Fulton Financial competes with Atlantic Union in Maryland and Virginia for commercial property borrowers, business deposits and consumer banking customers. Watch its small- and medium-sized business relationships, where loans and services that help customers manage cash and payments compete with Atlantic Union's offerings.

  • F.N.B. Corp competes with Atlantic Union for business borrowers and household deposits in Maryland, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and the Carolinas.

  • SouthState Bank Corporation competes with Atlantic Union for deposits and property loans in Virginia and the Carolinas. Its interest paid on customer deposits is worth watching: both banks use those deposits to fund lending, so the cost matters to their lending profits.

  • United Community Banks, Inc. competes with Atlantic Union for business loans and deposits in North and South Carolina, and both finance equipment purchases for businesses nationwide. Its equipment finance business offers a comparison beyond their overlapping local banking markets.

  • Ameris Bancorp and Atlantic Union both depend heavily on lending income and have substantial commercial property exposure, making borrowers' ability to repay and loan interest earned relative to funding costs important to both. Watch Ameris's commercial property credit quality and loan yields as a comparison for Atlantic Union, not as a readout of the same borrowers.

  • First Citizens BancShares competes with Atlantic Union for consumer deposits and business borrowers in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Focus on those banking customers when comparing results: First Citizens also serves technology and life-sciences businesses and leases railcars, making its overall results a less direct comparison.

  • First Community Bankshares competes with Atlantic Union for individual and business banking customers in Virginia and North Carolina. Its emphasis on personal relationships and competitive pricing makes its deposit and loan business the relevant comparison for Atlantic Union.

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  • Provident Financial Services and Atlantic Union both use customer deposits to fund commercial property and business loans, exposing both to repayment risk and the cost of deposits. Provident's property credit quality and deposit costs offer a comparison for Atlantic Union, though its lending is concentrated in New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and parts of New York.

  • FIRST NATL CORP STRASBURG VA, through First Bank, competes with Atlantic Union for deposits and small-business banking customers in Virginia, including the Shenandoah Valley and Richmond area.

Agenda

todayTue, Oct 20

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation earningsThis company

    Atlantic Union earns from the spread between loan income and deposit costs, and this report will show whether that spread can withstand funding pressure and loan losses.

  2. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Housing Starts (Sep)

    Housing activity measured by starts, permits and new-home sales can affect Atlantic Union Home Loans’ mortgage originations and investor sales, which generate mortgage-banking income.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For Atlantic Union Bank, Fed rate decisions shape the rates it earns on loans and investments and pays on deposits, affecting its net interest income—the interest earned minus interest paid.