AMAL in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Amalgamated Financial Corp. operates primarily through Amalgamated Bank, serving labor unions, nonprofits, political organizations and businesses and individuals seeking a socially responsible financial partner. Their deposits supply low-cost funding for loans to businesses, property owners and consumers, as well as investments in securities. Most earnings come from the interest borrowers and investments pay, after deducting interest paid on deposits and other funding.
The company also earns fees for holding and administering institutional clients’ assets and managing their investments. These clients include pension funds. This is a smaller income stream than its interest-based banking business.
The funding base leans heavily on labor unions and political organizations; campaign-related deposits rise and fall with election cycles. Earnings depend on retaining those deposits and on the gap between lending and investment yields and funding costs. Much of the lending is secured by real estate, with substantial exposure to New York apartment buildings subject to rent regulation. Banking capital requirements constrain lending, growth and distributions, while regulatory limits on transfers from Amalgamated Bank restrict cash available to the parent company.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
M&T Bank competes with Amalgamated to safeguard institutional clients’ assets through custody services; both also serve business banking customers and finance multifamily properties in overlapping Northeastern markets.
Customers Bancorp and Amalgamated both take business deposits and lend to commercial and multifamily borrowers, so competition for funding and property loan quality matter to both. Watch whether Customers’ cubiX business payment service attracts low-cost deposits—a funding source Amalgamated also relies on.
Western Alliance and Amalgamated both build deposit and lending relationships with specialized business clients and finance commercial properties. Western Alliance’s Commercial segment is the place to watch its niche-client banking and real estate financing, the businesses most relevant to this comparison.
Citizens Financial Group competes with Amalgamated for businesses and individuals buying commercial and retail banking services in overlapping Northeastern and Washington, D.C. markets.
Atlantic Union Bankshares and Amalgamated both seek Washington, D.C. customers for business loans, deposit accounts and wealth services. Atlantic Union’s Wholesale Banking results cover business lending, deposits and wealth management—the clearest overlap to watch.
Enterprise Financial Services and Amalgamated both rely on long-term customer relationships to gather business deposits that fund business loans, while cultivating specialized client groups. Watch Enterprise’s core deposit growth against loan growth: it says those deposits are its main source of funding for expanding lending.
State Street competes directly with Amalgamated for fees from safeguarding institutional clients’ assets and managing stock portfolios that track indexes. Its custody and passive equity management mandates are the relevant businesses to watch against Amalgamated’s investment and trust fee income.
Amalgamated relies on Invesco to provide investment management expertise as its primary sub-adviser, including for Taft-Hartley pension plans and socially responsible clients. Invesco earns fees for managing investors’ money; its capabilities in those two client areas are what matter most to Amalgamated’s offering.
Enterprise Financial Services Corporation earningsEFSC
Enterprise Financial Services uses business deposits to fund business loans, and its report will show whether customer funding is keeping pace with lending in a market Amalgamated Financial Corp. also relies on.
Compare Enterprise Financial Services' core deposit growth with its loan growth; core deposits are checking, savings, and money-market accounts. If deposits keep pace with loans, customer funding is still supporting lending, a constructive sign for the business-deposit market Amalgamated Financial Corp. also relies on. If loans grow faster, banks need other funding and competition for business deposits may intensify. Enterprise Financial Services' figures describe its own funding, not a change in Amalgamated Financial Corp.'s deposits.
Amalgamated Financial Corp. earningsThis company
Amalgamated Financial Corp. earns mainly from the gap between loan yields and deposit costs, and this report will show whether that gap can hold while it keeps the deposits that fund its loans.
Read loan yields alongside the cost and volume of deposits, including the share that pays no interest. If loan yields continue to cover deposit costs while deposits and the no-interest share hold steady, net interest income has firmer support. If loan yields weaken, deposit costs rise, or deposits leave, the spread and net interest income come under pressure. The question is whether loans keep earning enough over funding costs without deposit losses undermining growth.
Invesco LTD earningsIVZ
Invesco is Amalgamated Financial Corp.'s primary sub-adviser, including for Taft-Hartley pension plans and socially responsible clients, and its report can show whether its related investment-management business remains appealing.
Look at Invesco's reported assets, flows, and any results tied to the relevant investment strategies. If those businesses attract assets and show competitive results, the sub-adviser appears to have capabilities that can support Amalgamated Financial Corp.'s offering to these clients; outflows or weaker results could signal less appeal. If Invesco does not break out the relevant strategies, its overall figures cannot establish performance or flows in Amalgamated Financial Corp.'s accounts.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
For Amalgamated Bank, the Fed’s rate decision signals the direction of borrowing costs, which can change what the bank earns on loans and securities and pays on deposits and borrowings, affecting net interest income.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the Fed sets rates higher than expected, Amalgamated Bank may earn more as loans and securities reprice, but may also pay more on deposits and borrowings; the net effect depends on which reprices faster.
If it comes in below expectations
If the Fed sets rates lower than expected, Amalgamated Bank may earn less as loans and securities reprice, while its deposit and borrowing costs may also fall; the net effect depends on which reprices faster.
State Street Corporation earningsSTT
State Street competes with Amalgamated Financial Corp. for institutional custody and index-investment business, and its report can show how client demand and competition are shaping the trust and investment fees both seek.
Read State Street's custody assets and related servicing fees alongside flows or new mandates in index investing. Growth from new mandates would show institutions adding business and could mean tougher competition for Amalgamated Financial Corp.; asset growth mainly from rising markets would not mean clients are switching to State Street. Falling assets or fees could ease competitive pressure, but could also reflect lower market values. The key is to distinguish clients moving mandates from changes in asset prices.