Stock daily read

What happened with WAL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

WAL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Western Alliance Bancorporation serves businesses that need financing and help managing cash, alongside consumers and residential mortgage customers. Through Western Alliance Bank and its subsidiaries, it takes deposits and uses that funding to make loans and hold investment securities. Borrowers pay interest, and securities also generate interest income; after funding costs, this is its largest revenue source. Commercial and industrial lending is its largest loan category, including substantial lending to financial firms that do not take deposits, especially mortgage credit intermediaries.

The company also runs AmeriHome, its residential mortgage banking business, which sells or securitizes loans and earns mortgage servicing revenue. Its business banking services help customers manage cash and move money.

Earnings depend on retaining relatively low-cost deposits and on how loan and investment yields move relative to funding costs. Its commercial real estate lending is concentrated in Arizona, California and Nevada, tying repayment to those property markets and regional economies. Minimum capital and liquidity requirements constrain the business: falling short can restrict activities, growth and shareholder distributions.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in WAL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

WAL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Western Alliance also depends on mortgage production and demand for short-term funding of new mortgages, so watch Rocket Mortgage and privately held Freedom Mortgage, rivals in buying loans from other lenders for resale.

  • Zions competes with Western Alliance to lend to businesses and attract their deposits in overlapping Western markets, including Arizona, California and Nevada. Its business-loan and deposit trends offer a comparison for Western Alliance in those markets.

  • East West competes with Western Alliance for California businesses that borrow, deposit cash and pay banks to manage their money. Watch its commercial loans and deposits, and the California business relationships it builds through its Asian presence.

  • First Citizens competes with Western Alliance to bank technology companies, finance equipment and business borrowing, and attract consumer deposits online. Its Direct Bank consumer deposits are worth watching against Western Alliance’s push into online deposit channels.

  • BankUnited competes with Western Alliance nationally to fund lenders’ new mortgages before resale—mortgage warehouse lending—as well as finance equipment and provide specialized business deposit services. Its mortgage warehouse lending is a useful comparison for Western Alliance’s lending to mortgage intermediaries.

  • PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust competes directly with Western Alliance’s AmeriHome to buy newly originated home loans from lenders, pool them and resell them to investors. Watch its correspondent loan production and sales rather than its broader mortgage investments when comparing it with AmeriHome.

  • Rithm Capital’s Newrez competes with Western Alliance’s AmeriHome to acquire home loans from other lenders and sell them onward. Its gains on mortgage loans sold offer a concrete comparison for AmeriHome’s mortgage business.

  • Valley National Bancorp and Western Alliance both lend to businesses and property borrowers and run specialized banking businesses nationally, exposing both to commercial-property credit quality and deposit pricing. Watch Valley’s commercial-property loans and the rates it offers depositors as comparisons for Western Alliance.

  • Ameris Bancorp and Western Alliance both earn interest from substantial commercial-property lending, so property defaults and borrowers’ ability to refinance matter to both. Watch Ameris’s commercial-property and construction loans for a comparison of the credit pressures facing Western Alliance.

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  • Truist Financial competes with Western Alliance to buy home loans from other lenders for resale, lend to businesses and manage businesses’ cash. Its pricing and execution in mortgage purchases are worth watching alongside AmeriHome, while its business lending and cash-management services overlap with Western Alliance’s commercial bank.

Agenda

todayTue, Oct 20

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Housing Starts (Sep)

    Homebuilding activity, tracked by new-home starts, permits and sales, can shape Western Alliance's residential mortgage business and its customers' demand for loans and deposits, affecting mortgage income and balance-sheet growth.

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Bankunited, Inc. earningsBKU

    BankUnited funds mortgage lenders before they sell home loans, and its report will show how that financing and credit are faring as a comparison for Western Alliance's lending to mortgage intermediaries.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Ameris Bancorp earningsABCB

    Ameris Bancorp also lends heavily against commercial property, and its report will show repayment pressures in property and construction loans as a comparison for Western Alliance's real-estate credit risk.

  2. Time to be announced

    Valley National Bancorp earningsVLY

    Valley National Bancorp competes for business and property customers' deposits, and its report will show what it is paying to retain funding—a comparison for Western Alliance's funding costs.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Western Alliance earns much of its income from the gap between interest on loans and investments and the cost of deposits and borrowings, so Fed rate decisions can change that income as both reprice.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust earningsPMT

    PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust competes directly with Western Alliance's AmeriHome to buy newly originated home loans, and its report will show activity in loan production and resale.