Stock daily read

What happened with TPB today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TPB in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Turning Point Brands’ larger business is Stoker’s, which sells moist snuff, loose-leaf chewing tobacco and oral nicotine products, including FRE and ALP nicotine pouches. Its other business, Zig-Zag, sells rolling papers and cigar wraps that adults use to roll their own smoking products, alongside finished cigars and accessories. Most sales come from the United States, with the remainder mainly from Canada.

Wholesalers and retailers buy the products for resale to adult consumers; the company also sells online. It focuses on packaging, marketing and distribution and outsources most production, while making its own moist snuff. This makes supplier relationships central: RTI supplies all Zig-Zag cigarette papers, tubes and injectors and licenses the brand for those products, while Swedish Match exclusively manufactures its loose-leaf chewing tobacco. If the RTI agreements are not renewed, a non-compete clause generally prevents the company from selling competing cigarette papers without RTI’s consent, subject to limited exceptions.

Most U.S. sales involve FDA-regulated products. The company currently markets some products without premarket authorization under FDA enforcement policies. Continued distribution of certain cigars and novel nicotine products, including nicotine pouches, requires authorization; denial or enforcement action could force products off the market.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TPB’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TPB says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Beyond this list, Turning Point Brands’ Zig-Zag business relies on RTI for exclusive paper supply and licensing and faces Republic Tobacco and HBI International as its principal premium rolling-paper rivals.

  • Philip Morris International both competes for Turning Point Brands’ adult nicotine customers through ZYN pouches and Swedish Match’s smokeless tobacco and, through Swedish Match, exclusively manufactures Turning Point’s loose-leaf chewing tobacco. Watch Swedish Match’s manufacturing relationship with Turning Point: its owner is also a rival selling chewing tobacco in the same channels.

  • Altria’s Copenhagen and Skoal moist snuff and on! nicotine pouches compete with Turning Point Brands’ Stoker’s moist snuff and FRE and ALP pouches for U.S. adult consumers. Altria’s oral tobacco results are the relevant line to watch for competition facing these Turning Point products; its tobacco businesses sell mainly to wholesalers and large retailers.

  • British American Tobacco competes with Turning Point Brands for adult consumers buying traditional oral tobacco and modern oral nicotine products through retailers. Watch its Traditional Oral and Modern Oral businesses rather than its cigarette sales for a closer view of competition facing Turning Point’s chewing tobacco, moist snuff and nicotine pouches.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Philip Morris International Inc. earningsPM

    Philip Morris International’s report will show how Swedish Match’s smokeless-tobacco business is competing for Stoker’s customers while Swedish Match continues to supply Turning Point Brands’ loose-leaf chewing tobacco.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Turning Point Brands, Inc. earningsThis company

    Turning Point Brands’ report will show whether growth in Stoker’s modern oral products can offset weaker Zig-Zag papers and wraps while sustaining the company’s gross margin.