Stock daily read

What happened with MO today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

MO in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Marlboro is at the heart of Altria Group’s business. Its subsidiary Philip Morris USA makes and sells the brand in the United States, while Middleton sells Black & Mild cigars. Cigarettes and cigars generate the bulk of revenue. Wholesalers, distributors and large retailers buy the products for onward sale to adult consumers; two customers account for a substantial share of group revenue.

A smaller business sells tobacco used in the mouth under Copenhagen and Skoal, alongside on! nicotine pouches. Altria also owns NJOY’s e-vapor business, but import and sales bans have forced its principal product, NJOY ACE, off the U.S. market. Those bans remain in effect during an appeal.

The business depends heavily on consumers continuing to buy premium nicotine brands as cigarette consumption declines and some buyers switch to cheaper products or other nicotine categories. Pricing helps offset falling volumes. FDA decisions also constrain which newer nicotine products Altria can sell and whether they can remain on the market.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in MO’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

MO says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • British American Tobacco competes with Altria for U.S. adult consumers buying cigarettes, oral tobacco and newer nicotine products through retail channels. Its U.S. results offer a comparison for the pressure on Altria as consumers shift away from cigarettes toward newer nicotine products.

  • Philip Morris International competes for Altria’s U.S. nicotine customers with ZYN pouches and IQOS, which heats tobacco rather than burning it. Watch ZYN’s competition with on! and PMI’s U.S. commercialization of IQOS for pressure on Altria’s smoke-free ambitions.

  • Turning Point Brands competes for Altria’s adult consumers with Stoker’s moist snuff against Copenhagen and Skoal, and FRE and ALP oral nicotine products against on!. Its Stoker’s segment results are the relevant comparison for Altria’s oral tobacco business, rather than its rolling-paper sales.

  • Universal buys and processes tobacco leaf for manufacturers, including Altria, one of its six largest customers, so it depends on Altria’s orders. Altria’s cigarette business buys most of its burley and flue-cured leaf directly from U.S. growers, making Universal a view into only part of its leaf supply.

  • Altria’s stake in beer and malt-beverage seller AB InBev links its earnings and investment value to a business outside tobacco. Altria records its share of the brewer’s results one quarter later under equity-method accounting, so AB InBev’s earnings reach Altria with that delay.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Philip Morris International Inc. earningsPM

    Philip Morris International’s report will show whether ZYN and IQOS are gaining U.S. ground against Altria’s smoke-free products.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Altria Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    Altria’s quarterly report will show whether higher cigarette prices can keep its smokeable business profitable as shipments fall.