Stock daily read

What happened with TGTX today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

TGTX in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

TG Therapeutics markets BRIUMVI, an antibody medicine given by intravenous infusion to adults with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. It is the company’s only marketed product. U.S. sales supply most of its revenue, mainly through specialty distributors that buy the drug. Sales are concentrated among a small group of customers, with one accounting for a large share. Physician prescribing and patients’ access to treatment depend in part on coverage by commercial insurers and government health programs.

In specified overseas markets, Neuraxpharm holds exclusive commercialization rights. TG Therapeutics supplies BRIUMVI to Neuraxpharm and earns royalties on its sales, with additional payments tied to launch and commercial milestones. Income from this arrangement depends on local approvals, pricing, reimbursement and Neuraxpharm’s sales execution.

TG Therapeutics has no manufacturing capabilities of its own. It relies primarily on Samsung Biologics for BRIUMVI supply, with FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies as a secondary supplier. Continued sales depend on reliable supply and maintaining regulatory approvals; BRIUMVI remains subject to post-approval study requirements and controls on manufacturing, labeling and promotion.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in TGTX’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

TGTX says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

TG Therapeutics’ results hinge on BRIUMVI winning share from Roche’s OCREVUS and Novartis’ Kesimpta, while Neuraxpharm leads its licensed international commercialization.

  • Novartis competes directly with TG Therapeutics for multiple sclerosis patients through Kesimpta, an anti-CD20 medicine patients inject themselves. Kesimpta sales are worth watching for competitive pressure on BRIUMVI, particularly if TG develops its own self-administered version.

  • Biogen competes with TG Therapeutics through its multiple sclerosis medicines and also has financial rights in BRIUMVI’s anti-CD20 rival OCREVUS, which Roche and its sublicensees sell. Its multiple sclerosis sales and OCREVUS-related earnings offer two views of the competition BRIUMVI faces.

  • Genmab benefits when partner-sold ofatumumab wins relapsing multiple sclerosis patients who could otherwise receive TG Therapeutics’ BRIUMVI: its partner pays it royalties on the medicine. Ofatumumab royalty revenue is the relevant line to watch, rather than Genmab’s broader antibody business.

  • Sanofi competes with TG Therapeutics through marketed multiple sclerosis medicines and is developing frexalimab, which could offer an alternative to BRIUMVI’s approach. Watch frexalimab’s Phase 3 progress for a potential new treatment choice beyond anti-CD20 medicines.

  • TG Therapeutics depends on technology licensed from Precision BioSciences to develop azer-cel for autoimmune and other non-cancer conditions, with Precision eligible for milestone payments from TG. If a licensed product is approved and sold, TG would also pay Precision a share of net sales as royalties.

  • Zenas BioPharma could become a future rival to TG Therapeutics’ BRIUMVI through obexelimab, which it is developing for relapsing multiple sclerosis. Watch obexelimab’s development progress as a potential competitor, not an already marketed alternative.

  • Bristol Myers Squibb sells ZEPOSIA for multiple sclerosis, competing with TG Therapeutics’ BRIUMVI for physicians’ and patients’ treatment choices. ZEPOSIA sales provide a product-level view of that competition, rather than Bristol Myers Squibb’s overall drug revenue.

  • Alkermes earns money from licensees selling VUMERITY, which competes with TG Therapeutics’ BRIUMVI for multiple sclerosis treatment choices. Its VUMERITY-related license revenue is the line that connects its results to BRIUMVI’s market.

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  • Teva sells COPAXONE, which competes with TG Therapeutics’ BRIUMVI as a treatment that changes the course of multiple sclerosis. COPAXONE sales are more relevant to this rivalry than Teva’s broad generic-medicine business.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Novartis AG earningsNVS

    Novartis’s Kesimpta sales will show whether its self-injected anti-CD20 treatment is drawing multiple sclerosis patients and competing for the same treatment choices as BRIUMVI.

in 13 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    TG Therapeutics, Inc. earningsThis company

    TG Therapeutics relies on BRIUMVI sales to support its business, and this report will show whether drug revenue is outpacing manufacturing, royalty and commercial costs.