SpaceX fell 1.7%, but its retreat eased into a market-led decline. The Ukraine dispute raises questions about the reliability of its military services without demonstrating damage to the consumer subscriptions that drive most of its revenue.
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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. connects homes and businesses to the internet through Starlink satellites, including in places with limited ground-based networks. Customers typically buy a terminal and pay monthly service fees. Connectivity is its largest revenue source, led by consumer subscriptions. It also sells business and government connectivity, while mobile operators such as T-Mobile pay for satellite coverage that supplements their networks.
Its rocket business both deploys its own satellites and carries paying customers’ satellites, cargo and astronauts. Commercial customers and government agencies, including NASA, buy Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Dragon launch and mission services, mainly under fixed-price contracts. Reusing rocket hardware reduces replacement needs. U.S. government contracts supply significant revenue across the company; it also reports substantial revenue from one unnamed customer, without identifying that customer.
Following its acquisition of xAI, the company also operates Grok, X and AI computing infrastructure. Users and businesses pay for subscriptions and AI access, advertisers pay to reach X users, and Anthropic buys computing capacity at COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. The Anthropic agreement allows either party to terminate on notice after an initial period. The AI business remains at an early stage and requires substantial infrastructure investment.
Expansion of next-generation Starlink services depends on developing Starship and increasing launch capacity. Launches require timely FAA approvals, and satellite connectivity generally cannot be offered in a market without spectrum rights and telecommunications authorizations. AI computing capacity also depends on access to power and specialized processors.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Alongside Starlink subscriber growth, launch execution and AI investment, watch privately held Anthropic: its large but cancellable compute contract is a key new revenue dependency for SpaceX.
Viasat competes with SpaceX's Starlink for paying residential, airline, maritime, enterprise and government satellite-connectivity customers. Watch its aviation and maritime connectivity business for evidence of the competition Starlink faces beyond home broadband.
Amazon's LEO satellite broadband competes with SpaceX's Starlink for consumer and enterprise customers. Watch Amazon LEO's coverage, capacity and pricing rather than Amazon's retail results to assess this challenge to Starlink.
AST SpaceMobile competes with SpaceX for mobile operators seeking satellite connections to ordinary phones. Watch its preliminary operator arrangements turn into definitive commercial agreements; its SpaceMobile service had not launched or generated revenue in the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
Rocket Lab competes with SpaceX to launch commercial and government customers' satellites into orbit. Watch Electron's launch reliability and frequency, which Rocket Lab says support its pursuit of higher-volume, higher-value missions.
EchoStar competes with Starlink in satellite broadband while selling SpaceX spectrum licenses needed for its next-generation satellite-to-phone service. Watch completion of the deal, expected in November 2027 subject to remaining conditions: FCC transfer approval alone does not allow the new mobile service to launch.
SpaceX depends on NVIDIA's AI processors for its own AI clusters and the compute capacity it sells to Anthropic. Approximately 325,000 NVIDIA GPUs underpin that contracted capacity, making its data-center hardware the relevant business to watch.
CoreWeave competes with SpaceX to sell dense clusters of AI processors and supporting infrastructure to AI labs and enterprises. Watch its committed customer contracts for a comparison with SpaceX's cancellable Anthropic contract; CoreWeave's contracts had a weighted-average duration of approximately five years at December 31, 2025.
Nebius Group competes with SpaceX to sell processor capacity that outside customers use to train and run AI models. Watch its AI cloud's compute performance and energy efficiency, areas where Nebius says its own server, data-center and software designs give it an advantage.
T-Mobile US pays SpaceX for Starlink connections to phones, but its fixed-wireless broadband also competes for Starlink customers. Watch its satellite-to-phone offering separately from its 5G fixed-wireless service: one buys SpaceX capacity, while the other challenges Starlink broadband.
Alphabet competes with SpaceX in advanced AI models, advertisers' spending and cloud compute services. Its Google Search and YouTube advertising revenue is the concrete line to watch alongside SpaceX's efforts to grow advertising on X.
Microsoft competes with SpaceX for businesses buying AI applications and cloud compute capacity. Watch its enterprise AI and cloud services, where Microsoft says large data centers and pooled customer demand lower costs—a relevant comparison for Grok's business offerings and SpaceX's compute sales.
Globalstar competes with SpaceX's Starlink Mobile by selling satellite voice, data and messaging services to consumers, businesses and governments, as well as wholesale network capacity. Watch its satellite service revenue, particularly Apple business, which accounted for 63% of Globalstar's total revenue in 2025.
Meta Platforms competes with SpaceX's X for user attention and advertisers' spending, while their AI offerings also compete. Watch advertising revenue in Meta's Family of Apps, which generated substantially all of its revenue in 2025, as the closest comparison for X's advertising business.
Tesla is helping SpaceX develop Macrohard to automate digital workflows and the proposed Terafab plant to make AI chips, but definitive commitments remain unsettled. For this tie, watch agreements on Terafab's spending and development milestones rather than Tesla's vehicle sales; Tesla is not obligated to remain in the project.
SpaceX's proposed Terafab plant draws on Intel's expertise in designing, making and packaging chips to support its planned internal AI-chip production. Watch definitive project agreements and manufacturing milestones: Intel is not obligated to stay, and development timelines and capital spending remain undetermined.
Northrop Grumman competes with SpaceX for launch contracts and government space-program work. Watch its Space Systems contract awards rather than its overall defense results for the clearest view of competition facing SpaceX's government launch and spacecraft-development revenue.
Firefly Aerospace competes with SpaceX to sell launches to commercial, civil-government and national-security customers. Watch Alpha's execution of contracted missions after its 2025 launch anomaly and subsequent FAA clearance to resume launches; reliability and launch frequency are key competitive factors for SpaceX.
Northrop Grumman Corp. earningsNOC
Northrop Grumman’s Space Systems contract awards will show how strongly it is competing with SpaceX for government space-program work.
Look for Space Systems awards tied to government launch or spacecraft-development work. More awards in overlapping programs would show Northrop Grumman winning work SpaceX may also pursue, pointing to stronger competition for SpaceX; fewer would mean less evidence of that pressure in this report. Awards show the contest for work, not SpaceX’s own contract results.
Meta Platforms, Inc. earningsMETA
Meta’s Family of Apps ad revenue will show how advertisers are spending on a social platform competing with X for budgets.
Focus on Family of Apps advertising revenue, not Meta’s total revenue. Growth would show advertisers continuing to spend on a large social platform, a supportive market signal for X’s ad business; a decline would point to pressure on spending across this type of platform and a tougher setting for X to win budgets. Meta’s result is a market comparison, not a reading of X’s own performance.
T-Mobile US, Inc. earningsTMUS
T-Mobile’s report will show how its satellite-to-phone service, which buys SpaceX capacity, and its competing fixed-wireless broadband business are developing.
Separate T-Mobile’s satellite-to-phone service from its 5G fixed-wireless broadband. Wider use of the satellite service would point to stronger operator demand for SpaceX connections; growth in fixed wireless would show a more compelling alternative competing for broadband customers. The distinction is where the money flows: T-Mobile buys SpaceX capacity in one business, while the other competes with Starlink broadband.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
SpaceX’s Fed rate decision matters because it can change the interest paid on variable-rate debt and the cash left for its launch, Starlink and AI investments.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates could increase SpaceX’s interest expense and debt-service burden, leaving less cash for its launch, Starlink and AI programs.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates could reduce SpaceX’s interest expense and debt-service burden, leaving more cash available for its launch, Starlink and AI programs.
Amazon.Com Inc earningsAMZN
Amazon’s low-Earth-orbit broadband progress will show whether it is becoming a stronger rival for Starlink’s consumer and enterprise customers.
Watch the coverage, capacity and pricing Amazon reports for its LEO satellite business, not its retail results. Broader coverage, more capacity or more competitive pricing would give consumers and enterprises more alternatives to Starlink and could increase pressure on Starlink to win customers; limited progress would offer less evidence of a new competitive threat. The question is whether Amazon is becoming a usable alternative for customers.
Intel Corp earningsINTC
Intel’s project agreements or manufacturing milestones will show whether the planned Terafab chip-making project involving SpaceX is advancing.
Look for definitive Terafab agreements and manufacturing milestones, not Intel’s overall results. Concrete arrangements would make SpaceX’s planned in-house chipmaking a clearer potential addition to external supply; continued uncertainty would leave SpaceX more dependent on third-party chips. No project update would not establish that the project is in place.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. earningsThis company
SpaceX’s report will show whether Starlink’s revenue and operating income can keep pace with investment and losses in AI and Space.
Compare revenue and operating income or loss across the three segments with each segment’s capital spending. If Connectivity revenue and operating income grow enough to absorb losses in AI and Space, Starlink is helping support the expansion; if Connectivity weakens while AI or Space losses and spending rise, the expansion is adding more strain than the core service business can carry. The conclusion is whether Connectivity can support the rest of the business as it expands.
Globalstar, Inc. earningsGSAT
Globalstar’s satellite-service revenue will show demand for its voice, data and messaging services competing for satellite-connectivity customers.
Read Globalstar’s satellite-service revenue alongside its Apple business, a major customer source. Growth would show commercial demand for satellite voice, data and messaging remains active in an adjacent market for SpaceX’s mobile satellite services; a decline would be a weaker demand signal. If revenue remains heavily tied to Apple, growth would not necessarily show broad customer demand.
CoreWeave, Inc. earningsCRWV
CoreWeave’s customer contracts will show whether AI labs and enterprises are committing to buy compute from a competitor to SpaceX.
Compare the duration and firmness of CoreWeave’s customer contracts with SpaceX’s Anthropic compute arrangement, which either party may terminate on 90 days’ notice after the initial three months. Longer, firmer commitments would show buyers locking in capacity with a competitor, raising the importance of securing durable demand for SpaceX’s compute; weaker commitments would offer less evidence of that pull. The contracts differ, so duration alone is not a performance ranking.
Nvidia Corp earningsNVDA
NVIDIA’s data-center business will show the market demand for processors SpaceX uses in its AI clusters and Anthropic compute service.
Watch NVIDIA’s data-center business and any relevant supply disclosures. Strong activity or rising supply would indicate robust AI-processor demand and expanding availability, a more supportive backdrop for SpaceX’s compute expansion; weaker activity or supply would point to less favorable conditions. NVIDIA’s overall results cannot establish how many chips SpaceX receives, so the key question remains whether supply supports SpaceX’s AI deployment.
