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AST SpaceMobile is building a low-Earth-orbit satellite network to connect ordinary mobile phones outside terrestrial cellular coverage. Its planned SpaceMobile Service would use mobile operators’ spectrum to deliver broadband without customers buying special equipment or subscribing directly to AST SpaceMobile.
The service has not yet launched or generated revenue. Revenue currently comes mainly from selling gateway equipment, software and related services to mobile operators, with another substantial stream from U.S. government contracts performed directly or through prime contractors using its initial BlueBird satellites.
Once SpaceMobile launches, operators would sell it to their customers and share revenue with AST SpaceMobile. The company has definitive commercial agreements with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and STC, but many other partnerships remain preliminary. Its intended main income stream therefore depends on operators agreeing commercial terms and attracting paying users. Delivering the service also depends on assembling and launching the satellite network through a limited group of suppliers and launch providers. Full U.S. commercial service still needs further FCC approvals, and service abroad requires local approvals. Access to operators’ terrestrial spectrum also depends on their continuing consent and regulatory permission.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
AST SpaceMobile’s commercial launch also depends on regulatory approvals and spectrum access through Ligado, an important supplier missing from this list.
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) both competes with AST SpaceMobile through Starlink Mobile’s satellite-to-phone service and launches AST’s satellites, making it a rival in selling connectivity and a supplier AST depends on to reach orbit.
Globalstar competes with AST SpaceMobile’s planned phone connectivity by selling satellite voice and data services to consumers, businesses and governments, and satellite capacity to Apple. Watch its Apple business for the strength of this competing route to mobile satellite connectivity: Apple supplied 63% of Globalstar’s revenue in 2025.
AST SpaceMobile depends on AT&T to bring its satellite service to AT&T’s mobile subscribers and provide the spectrum and core-network access that make the connection work. AT&T’s satellite service offering and pricing are worth watching because AST expects to earn most future SpaceMobile revenue by sharing what mobile operators collect from their customers.
Vodafone gives AST SpaceMobile a route to paying mobile subscribers outside SatCo-covered markets and jointly owns SatCo, which exclusively resells AST service to mobile operators in Europe, the UK and certain other markets. Watch how Vodafone packages satellite coverage for its customers: AST’s planned revenue sharing depends on operators agreeing on offerings and prices.
Verizon is a route to paying wireless customers for AST SpaceMobile, with a definitive agreement for satellite connectivity starting in 2026 in the continental United States excluding Alaska, and in Hawaii. Watch Verizon’s rollout and customer pricing, rather than its overall wireless revenue: AST’s planned service income depends on operators selling the service and sharing revenue.
Iridium competes with AST SpaceMobile for remote-area connectivity and government communications, selling global satellite voice and data services to businesses, governments and consumers. Its U.S. government business is the clearest line to watch alongside AST’s government work: that customer generated 29% of Iridium’s total revenue in 2025.
T-Mobile US competes with AST SpaceMobile’s planned services through AT&T and Verizon by offering mobile customers satellite-to-phone connectivity powered by Starlink.
Viasat competes with AST SpaceMobile’s planned coverage beyond terrestrial networks through its Inmarsat business, which provides mobile satellite communications.
AT&T Inc. earningsT
AT&T’s report can show whether it is turning its satellite agreement with AST SpaceMobile into a priced offer for subscribers, opening the revenue-sharing route AST needs.
Look for whether AT&T describes a satellite offer and its price, alongside any evidence that subscribers are taking it up. A clear offer with customer uptake would show AT&T turning its existing subscriber base into revenue that AST can share; no clear offer or limited uptake would leave that revenue path unproven despite access to spectrum and the network.
Iridium Communications Inc. earningsIRDM
Iridium’s report can show how U.S. government demand and competition among satellite providers are shaping the government work AST SpaceMobile also pursues.
Compare Iridium’s U.S. government revenue with its total revenue, and watch for updates on government contracts. Government revenue growing with the total would point to demand for this kind of satellite service, but would not mean AST will win contracts; a decline could reflect weaker demand or lost work at Iridium. The question for AST is how much opportunity the government market offers and whether it can win its share.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. earningsSPCX
SpaceX’s report can show both how Starlink Mobile is competing with AST SpaceMobile and how dependable SpaceX’s launches are as a route for AST to get satellites into orbit.
Separate Starlink Mobile’s satellite-to-phone progress from SpaceX’s launch activity and available capacity. Faster customer uptake would make it harder for AST to win mobile operators and users; stronger launch capacity would support AST’s route to orbit. Launch disruption could delay AST’s build even as it eases competitive pressure. The key is which force—tougher competition or launch support—matters more to AST’s business.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. earningsThis company
AST SpaceMobile’s report will show whether gateway-equipment sales and government-contract work are keeping pace with the cost of building its satellite network.
Compare gateway-equipment sales and government-contract service revenue with engineering and other operating costs. If revenue grows faster than costs, existing customer work is doing more to support the satellite build; if it falls behind, AST still depends on outside capital to build the network before its satellite service can support the business.
