Stock daily read

What happened with ROKU today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ROKU in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Roku connects viewers to streaming apps through software running on its streaming players, its own TVs and TVs made by partner manufacturers. It sells hardware but also lets TV makers use Roku TV OS, typically without a license fee. Those arrangements expand the audience Roku can earn money from, and Roku prices its devices to attract households rather than maximize hardware profit.

Most revenue comes from the platform, not device sales. Advertisers pay to reach viewers through ads in videos and Roku’s on-screen interface. Streaming partners pay for promotion and share revenue from subscriptions and purchases made through Roku. Roku also operates The Roku Channel, which earns mainly from advertising, and Howdy and Frndly TV, which earn mainly from subscriptions. The Roku Channel supplies an important part of Roku’s advertising inventory, drawing primarily on licensed third-party content.

The business depends on keeping popular apps available and securing advertising space it can sell; Roku has no access to video ad inventory in some apps, including YouTube. Privacy rules, viewer consent and partner restrictions limit the data it can use for advertising, so more viewing does not automatically mean more revenue. Revenue comes predominantly from the United States. Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart and Target together account for most device revenue, making those retailers important to Roku’s hardware distribution.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ROKU’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ROKU says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Alphabet’s Google competes with Roku for smart-TV users and advertisers through its TV operating system and YouTube. YouTube advertising revenue is worth watching: Roku cannot sell YouTube’s video ad inventory, even when viewers watch through Roku.

  • Amazon both pays Roku for devices to resell to shoppers and competes for streaming users with Fire TV devices and smart-TV operating systems. Its Fire TV offering therefore matters to Roku’s user growth, while its Roku device purchases support Roku’s Devices revenue.

  • Magnite and Roku both benefit from spending on streaming-TV ads, but Magnite automates trades between ad buyers and sellers and collects fees, while Roku sells advertising space to advertisers. Spending on connected-TV ads through Magnite offers a read on the demand behind Roku’s video advertising revenue.

  • Comcast competes with Roku for viewers through Xumo and its TV platforms, and its media business competes for advertisers’ video ad spending. Watch Xumo’s development for pressure on Roku’s viewing hours, rather than treating Comcast’s broadband revenue as a direct comparison.

  • Walmart buys Roku devices to resell to shoppers, but its Vizio TV operating system also competes with Roku for viewers. Watch Walmart’s integration of Vizio’s operating system into its products: the retailer that supports Roku’s device sales is also expanding a rival TV platform.

  • AMC Networks and Roku both seek viewers’ subscription payments and advertisers’ spending as audiences move to streaming, while AMC also earns money licensing shows to third-party platforms. AMC+ and its other streaming services offer a closer comparison for Roku’s subscription businesses than AMC’s content-licensing revenue.

  • Apple competes with Roku for consumers buying streaming devices and choosing where to watch TV, combining TV hardware with its streaming ecosystem. Its TV products and services are the relevant competitive signal for Roku, rather than Apple’s broader device sales.

  • Charter competes with Roku for TV viewers through Spectrum video services, which customers pay for monthly, and Xumo, its joint venture with Comcast. Watch how Charter combines TV with its other subscription services to attract and retain customers; that is where its offering challenges Roku’s viewing platform.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Alphabet Inc. earningsGOOG

    Alphabet’s report can show how video-ad demand is changing, a market signal for Roku as it sells its own video ad inventory.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Roku, Inc. earningsThis company

    Roku earns most of its revenue from streaming-service distribution and advertising, and this report will show whether that Platform growth is adding gross profit.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track how much consumers spend at stores, and stronger demand for Roku players, TVs, and other devices sold through retailers can lift Devices revenue, while weaker demand can reduce it.