RBB in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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- Buy / Wait / Sell rating
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- vs. the market
What happened with RBB today?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
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RBB Bancorp serves small and middle-market businesses and individuals through Royal Business Bank, mainly in Asian-American communities across six U.S. states. The bank gathers deposits and lends to customers, who pay interest on their loans. Most revenue comes from loan interest; investment interest, service fees and loan-sale gains contribute less. Earnings depend chiefly on the gap between interest earned and interest paid on deposits and borrowings.
Single-family mortgages and commercial real estate loans dominate its lending, and nearly all loans have some real estate collateral. Most home mortgages allow reduced documentation and do not meet qualified-mortgage standards. These loans serve in part recently immigrated Asian-American borrowers who accept larger down payments and higher rates and fees. The bank generally holds them to earn interest; they cannot be securitized and can be sold only directly to other financial institutions. This makes attracting immigrant borrowers and retaining deposits important, while property values underpin much of its collateral. Large depositor relationships supply a substantial share of deposits.
RBB Bancorp itself relies principally on dividends from the bank to fund its expenses. Laws and banking regulations limit those payments based on the bank’s earnings and capital.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Cathay General Bancorp competes with RBB for Chinese-American businesses and individuals in California and New York, taking deposits and providing real estate loans and business banking. Cathay’s loan and deposit pricing in those communities is worth watching for competition facing RBB.
Hope Bancorp, Inc., through Bank of Hope, competes with RBB for business and individual customers in multi-ethnic communities across California, Hawaii, New York, New Jersey and Illinois. Watch its real estate lending, small-business loans through SBA programs and financing for international trade—the same services RBB offers these customers.
PCB Bancorp, through PCB Bank, competes with RBB for small-business and individual customers in Southern California, New York and New Jersey, including Asian-American communities, by offering loans and deposit accounts. PCB’s loan and deposit rates are a concrete point to watch in that competition.
OP Bancorp’s Open Bank competes with RBB to lend to Asian-American businesses and individuals in Southern California. Watch its commercial property loans, small-business lending through SBA programs and home mortgages, where the two banks’ offerings overlap.
METROCITY BANKSHARES INC, through Metro City Bank, competes with RBB to gather deposits and lend to businesses and individuals in multi-ethnic communities in California, New York and New Jersey. Its branch expansion news in those markets is worth watching, given its focus on community relationships to win lending business.
BayCom Corp’s United Business Bank competes with RBB for business owners and individual customers in California and Nevada, offering banking services through full-service branches. Its focus on small and medium-sized businesses puts it in the same customer pool as RBB.
Five Star Bancorp competes with RBB for California business banking customers and commercial property loans, through Five Star Bank’s deposit and lending services. Watch its Northern California commercial property lending: this is a core focus for Five Star and a substantial part of RBB’s loan book.
Byline Bancorp, Inc. competes with RBB for small-business, commercial real estate and consumer banking customers in the Chicago market.
Cathay General Bancorp earningsCATY
Cathay General's report will show how it prices loans and competes for deposits in Chinese-American communities in California and New York, markets it shares with RBB.
Compare Cathay General's loan pricing with its deposit costs. Steady loan pricing without a clear rise in deposit costs suggests no obvious intensification in price competition in the shared markets; pressured loan pricing alongside higher deposit costs suggests banks may be earning less on loans while paying more for deposits, a competitive backdrop RBB also faces.
OP Bancorp earningsOPBK
OP Bancorp's report will show whether demand for commercial property, small-business and home loans among Asian-American customers in Southern California is also showing up in the market where it competes with RBB.
Read Open Bank's lending in the overlapping loan markets alongside its deposit costs. Loan growth with stable deposit costs suggests customer demand is supporting lending without a clear need to pay more for funding; slower lending or higher deposit costs points to weaker demand or tougher funding competition for RBB.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Fed’s policy rate tracks the short-term cost of money, and changes can shift what RBB earns on its loans and investments versus what it pays depositors and other lenders.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the policy rate is higher than expected, repricing loans may bring RBB more interest income, but deposit and borrowing costs may also rise and squeeze the difference it earns.
If it comes in below expectations
If the policy rate is lower than expected, RBB’s funding costs may ease, but yields on loans and investments may also fall, reducing the income those assets generate.