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What happened with PPL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

PPL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

PPL Corporation supplies electricity and natural gas through local utilities, with Kentucky and Pennsylvania providing most of its revenue. LG&E and KU generate and deliver electricity in Kentucky, and KU also serves parts of Virginia; LG&E also supplies natural gas. PPL Electric operates Pennsylvania electricity transmission and distribution networks, while Rhode Island Energy runs electricity and gas delivery networks in Rhode Island. Households and businesses pay these utilities through regulated service bills.

The business earns money by recovering service costs and receiving an approved return on investment in power plants and delivery networks. PPL Electric owns no power plants: customers can choose another electricity supplier and still pay it for delivery. It and Rhode Island Energy procure electricity for customers without another supplier, but pass those supply costs through rather than profit from changes in electricity prices.

The utilities operate within legally authorized service territories, and federal and state regulators control their rates. Profitability depends on regulators allowing them to recover operating and infrastructure costs and earn a return; recovery is not automatic. PPL itself is a holding company and relies on subsidiary earnings and distributions, which legal, regulatory and contractual restrictions can limit.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in PPL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

PPL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • FirstEnergy and PPL share exposure to Pennsylvania electricity-delivery regulation: both earn from customers paying for regulated distribution and transmission networks, rather than competitive generation supply. Watch FirstEnergy’s Pennsylvania delivery business for how network investment translates into regulated earnings.

  • Exelon’s PECO offers a close comparison for PPL’s Pennsylvania business: both deliver electricity to customers and procure supply without owning generation. PECO’s electricity-delivery results are the useful comparison, since PPL passes supply costs through and earns only delivery revenue when customers choose another supplier.

  • American Electric Power and PPL both depend on approved customer rates to recover investment in electricity networks and utilities that generate and deliver power. Watch AEP’s regulated electricity-sales and delivery businesses for the balance between infrastructure spending and the earnings those rates support.

  • Duke Energy mirrors PPL’s split between generating and delivering regulated power and delivering electricity bought from competitive suppliers. Duke’s Ohio transmission and distribution margin is the comparison to watch for PPL’s Pennsylvania business: customers cover auctioned power costs, but those costs do not produce retail margin.

  • Ameren is a close comparison for PPL’s blended utility model, with Missouri generation and delivery, Illinois electricity and gas delivery, and federally regulated transmission paid for through regulated service rates. Its separate transmission results help distinguish grid earnings from the generation and local-delivery businesses.

  • Eversource Energy is a regional comparison for PPL’s Rhode Island Energy: both earn from delivering electricity and gas to New England customers and operating transmission networks. Watch Eversource’s electricity transmission, electricity distribution and gas distribution results separately when assessing PPL’s Rhode Island delivery revenues.

  • CenterPoint Energy and PPL share a mix of electricity delivery, some regulated generation and gas distribution in protected service territories, earning from customers using those services. CenterPoint’s Houston delivery business and Indiana generation-and-delivery business provide separate comparisons for PPL’s network-only and integrated electricity operations.

  • Consolidated Edison and PPL’s Pennsylvania and Rhode Island businesses earn from customers paying for regulated electricity and gas delivery infrastructure. Watch the investment returns allowed in Con Edison’s delivery rate plans, rather than treating higher customer bills alone as higher earnings.

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  • Dominion Energy and PPL’s KU both serve Virginia electricity customers under regulated rates, making state-approved infrastructure returns a shared issue. Dominion’s Virginia utility rate decisions are the relevant comparison for KU’s Virginia business, whose base rates cover investment returns and applicable operating and maintenance costs.

  • WEC Energy Group and PPL both earn from regulated electricity and gas utilities serving protected territories, alongside transmission investments. WEC’s retail electricity revenue is the line to watch for its customer-service business, while its stake in transmission company ATC gives a separate view of grid investment.

  • CMS Energy’s Consumers Energy parallels PPL’s Kentucky utilities by generating and delivering electricity alongside extensive gas infrastructure for utility customers. Consumers’ electric and gas results are the useful comparison, since it supplies the substantial majority of CMS’s income and revenue, rather than the independent power business.

  • DTE Energy and PPL both combine regulated generation and electricity delivery with gas operations, with coal plants exposed to ongoing infrastructure replacement needs. Watch DTE Electric’s approved recovery of investment through customer rates as a comparison for PPL’s coal-heavy Kentucky generation business.

  • Southern Company’s utilities generate and deliver electricity to customers and distribute gas, paralleling PPL’s Kentucky generation and broader delivery businesses. Its traditional electric utilities’ retail sales are the closer comparison for PPL’s Kentucky customer revenue than Southern Power’s wholesale electricity sales.

  • Alliant Energy and PPL share regulated businesses that generate and deliver electricity and distribute gas to households and businesses. Alliant’s IPL and WPL retail utility results in Iowa and Wisconsin provide a comparison for PPL’s Kentucky electricity and gas customer revenues.

Agenda

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    CMS Energy Corporation earningsCMS

    CMS Energy’s report will show how its Consumers Energy electric and gas businesses are faring, offering a comparison for PPL’s Kentucky utilities.

  2. Time to be announced

    FirstEnergy Corp. earningsFE

    FirstEnergy’s Pennsylvania delivery business will show how network investment is translating into regulated earnings, a direct comparison for PPL’s Pennsylvania delivery business.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    PPL’s regulated utilities borrow to fund major generation and delivery-system investments, so the Fed’s decision on short-term borrowing rates can affect the cost of new and repriced debt.

in 11 daysFri, Oct 30

  1. Time to be announced

    Dominion Energy, Inc earningsD

    Dominion Energy’s Virginia utility results will show how approved rates support service costs and infrastructure returns, a comparison for PPL’s KU business in Virginia.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    PPL Corporation earningsThis company

    PPL’s report will show whether its Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island utilities are turning electricity and gas service and network investment into broader earnings growth.

  2. Time to be announced

    Eversource Energy earningsES

    Eversource Energy’s separate transmission, electricity distribution and gas distribution results will offer comparisons for PPL’s Rhode Island delivery businesses.