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What happened with ES today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ES in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Eversource Energy serves homes and businesses in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire through its utility subsidiaries. Electricity distribution brings in most of its revenue: CL&P, NSTAR Electric and PSNH deliver power over local networks and bill customers at state-approved rates. The group also distributes natural gas and supplies water through Aquarion. Its customer base is broad, with no dependence on a single customer.

Customers can choose another electricity supplier while continuing to pay Eversource’s utilities for delivery. For those who do not switch, the utilities buy electricity and pass the cost through without markup; purchased natural gas is also passed through at cost. The investment return comes from regulated infrastructure, rather than a margin on purchased energy. Eversource also owns high-voltage transmission lines in New England, collecting regulated charges from wholesale transmission customers, including its own distribution utilities.

The business depends on state regulators and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approving rates that recover costs and allow returns on invested capital. Regulators can deny cost recovery, reduce allowed returns or delay rate changes, so infrastructure spending does not automatically translate into earnings or cash collections.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ES’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ES says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Exelon offers a close comparison for Eversource’s grid earnings: both collect regulated fees for delivering electricity to customers rather than generating the power they supply. Watch Exelon’s distribution and transmission revenue, not generation margins, when comparing their results.

  • Con Edison gives Eversource holders another view of Northeast utilities earning regulated returns from networks that deliver electricity and gas to customers. Its state-approved rate plans show what regulators allow it to earn on those networks—the terms to compare with Eversource’s delivery businesses.

  • PPL’s Pennsylvania and Rhode Island utilities offer a comparison for Eversource’s customer electricity delivery, with Rhode Island also adding neighboring New England gas service. Watch PPL’s Pennsylvania delivery results rather than customers’ choice of power supplier: purchased power costs pass through to customers, as they do at Eversource’s Massachusetts and New Hampshire electric utilities.

  • FirstEnergy’s large customer electricity delivery business and separately reported transmission business make it a close comparison for Eversource’s grid earnings. Compare its Distribution and Stand-Alone Transmission results with Eversource’s delivery earnings, rather than its Integrated segment, which also generates power.

  • Ameren lets Eversource holders compare electricity delivery to customers, gas delivery and long-distance electricity transmission as separate earnings businesses. Watch its Illinois electric distribution, Illinois natural gas and transmission results; those line up more closely with Eversource’s main businesses than its Missouri segment, which also generates electricity.

  • American Electric Power and Eversource both earn regulated returns on substantial networks that carry electricity to retail and wholesale customers. AEP’s Transmission and Distribution Utilities and Transmission Holdco results offer the more direct comparison for Eversource’s grid earnings than its generation businesses.

  • CenterPoint’s Houston electricity delivery network and systems that sell and transport gas to customers offer a comparison for Eversource’s delivery-focused businesses. Focus on Houston electricity delivery and natural gas results; CenterPoint’s Indiana electric business also generates power, making it a less direct match.

Agenda

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    FirstEnergy Corp. earningsFE

    FirstEnergy’s report shows whether its distribution and stand-alone transmission businesses are strengthening or facing pressure, a direct comparison for Eversource’s regulated grid earnings.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Eversource uses short- and long-term borrowing to fund utility operations and build electric, gas and water infrastructure, so the Fed’s benchmark interest-rate decision can change what it pays to borrow.

in 16 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Eversource Energy earningsThis company

    Eversource’s report will show whether its electric delivery and transmission businesses are turning regulated grid investment into stronger segment earnings, or whether costs and delayed recovery are absorbing the gains.