Stock daily read

What happened with FE today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

FE in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

FirstEnergy’s utilities deliver electricity to homes and businesses across the U.S. Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Most revenue comes from utilities that distribute electricity and supply power to customers in their service territories. Customers pay state-regulated rates as they use electricity. For customers who do not choose another power supplier, certain utilities must buy and supply power through regulator-approved procurement processes. Its MP subsidiary also operates regulated power plants, primarily coal-fired, in West Virginia.

FirstEnergy also owns high-voltage transmission networks that carry electricity from generating plants to local distribution systems. These networks earn revenue through regulated charges designed to recover permitted costs and provide a return on capital invested in the grid. The charges are updated annually using projected investment and costs, then adjusted to actual amounts.

The business depends on state utility regulators and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission allowing costs and grid investments to be recovered through rates, with an authorized return. Its distribution utilities generally face no competition within their territories, but cannot freely set prices. FirstEnergy itself is a holding company: cash reaches it mainly from subsidiaries, whose own obligations and regulatory restrictions can limit payments to the parent.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in FE’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

FE says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Exelon and FirstEnergy share exposure to regulated electricity delivery in Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey, where both buy power for customers rather than rely primarily on their own generation. Watch Exelon’s delivery results in those states for a comparison with FirstEnergy’s grid business.

  • American Electric Power and FirstEnergy both earn regulated returns from selling electricity and delivering it to customers, so grid investment and permission to recover its costs matter to both. AEP’s transmission and distribution results offer a comparison for FirstEnergy’s returns on grid spending.

  • PPL’s Pennsylvania electricity delivery business is a close comparison for FirstEnergy: both deliver power to customers and buy supply competitively for those who do not choose another supplier. PPL passes those supply costs through to customers, making its Pennsylvania delivery results more useful to watch than customers’ supplier switching.

  • Duke Energy and FirstEnergy both depend on regulated returns from delivering electricity to Ohio customers, while buying power competitively for customers who have not chosen a supplier. Duke’s Ohio margin comes from transmission and distribution, not the purchased electricity itself—the useful comparison for FirstEnergy’s Ohio business.

  • Eversource Energy offers a comparison for FirstEnergy’s regulated grid business: both deliver electricity to customers through substantial distribution and transmission networks, with limited generation in their delivery operations. Watch Eversource’s electric transmission and distribution results rather than its gas or water businesses.

  • Ameren and FirstEnergy both deliver electricity to customers and run separate transmission businesses, with federal regulators governing recovery of transmission investment. Ameren Transmission’s results are the relevant comparison for FirstEnergy’s revenue from carrying power from generators to distribution networks.

  • Dominion Energy and FirstEnergy share exposure to regulated electric infrastructure in the Mid-Atlantic, including transmission assets in Virginia. Dominion’s regulated electricity business serving customers in Virginia offers a regional comparison for FirstEnergy’s grid operations there.

  • Consolidated Edison and FirstEnergy both earn regulated returns for delivering electricity to Northeastern customers, and New Jersey rate decisions matter to both. Watch the returns and investment recovery allowed in Con Edison’s New Jersey delivery rates as a comparison for FirstEnergy’s JCP&L.

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  • Fortis Inc., through its ownership of ITC’s regulated U.S. transmission networks, is a close comparison for FirstEnergy’s investment in power-carrying networks and the regulated returns earned on that investment.

  • DTE Energy’s DTE Electric and FirstEnergy both depend on electricity demand from large Midwestern customer bases and regulated recovery of utility investment. Watch DTE Electric’s third-quarter sales, when cooling demand usually peaks, alongside FirstEnergy’s weather-sensitive summer sales.

Agenda

in 6 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    FirstEnergy Corp. earningsThis company

    FirstEnergy’s report will show whether its distribution and transmission investments are turning into earnings, rather than just higher revenue.

in 7 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    American Electric Power Company, Inc. earningsAEP

    AEP’s transmission and distribution results will show whether grid investment is translating into recoverable earnings, a link that also matters to FirstEnergy.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s decision on its benchmark interest rate matters to FirstEnergy because higher rates can raise interest costs on its variable-rate short-term debt and on new debt used to refinance maturities and fund investment, reducing earnings and cash flow.

in 14 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    PPL Corporation earningsPPL

    PPL’s report will show how its Pennsylvania delivery business performs as power-supply costs pass through to customers, a useful comparison for FirstEnergy’s Pennsylvania operations.

in 15 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    DTE Energy Company earningsDTE

    DTE Electric’s sales will show whether summer cooling demand is lifting electricity use, a read-through for FirstEnergy’s weather-sensitive summer sales.