Stock daily read

What happened with NUS today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NUS in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Nu Skin Enterprises sells beauty and wellness products, including dietary supplements and beauty devices such as ageLOC WellSpa iO. These products account for most of its revenue. Consumers buy directly from the company or from sellers who purchase products for resale; many sales-force members also buy for personal or family use. Outside Mainland China, sellers can earn retail markups and company-paid compensation based on product sales, not recruitment. Qualified Sales Leaders also earn compensation on sales through the networks they develop and train.

The company also owns Rhyz, a group of manufacturing, consumer and technology businesses. Rhyz provides a smaller revenue stream from outside customers, mainly through its manufacturing businesses.

The core business depends heavily on Sales Leaders who support other sellers and drive purchases through product education and demonstrations, increasingly using social and digital platforms. Direct-selling rules constrain how Nu Skin can operate and pay its sales force. Mainland China prohibits multi-level compensation, so Nu Skin uses a separate model involving sales employees, independent direct sellers and independent marketers, supported by stores and digital channels. Products sold through direct selling there must be made by Nu Skin and registered within authorized categories.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NUS’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NUS says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Nu Skin’s results hinge on beauty and wellness demand and sales-leader productivity, while privately held Amway remains an important rival for consumers and sales-force members.

  • USANA competes with Nu Skin for customers and independent sellers, with both selling science-backed nutritional products through those networks. Watch USANA’s active core nutritional customers—partners buying for use or resale and customers buying only for themselves—to gauge demand in a market Nu Skin also serves.

  • Herbalife competes with Nu Skin for wellness consumers and independent sellers, who buy products for personal use or resale. Its sales of dietary and nutritional supplements offer a closer view of overlapping demand than its much larger weight-management business.

  • Nature’s Sunshine competes for consumers similar to Nu Skin’s, selling nutritional and personal-care products to independent consultants who use them or resell them. Its ability to retain those consultants depends partly on training, products and financial incentives—useful points to watch alongside Nu Skin’s reliance on its sales force.

  • LifeVantage overlaps with Nu Skin in supplements and skin care, selling to consumers through independent consultants paid commissions on sales. Its Protandim supplements and TrueScience skin-care products are concrete lines to watch for competition with Nu Skin’s wellness and beauty offerings.

  • Mannatech competes with Nu Skin in supplements, skin care and anti-aging products, and for independent sales associates serving customers. Watch its recruitment and retention: successful recruiting by rival networks reduces the pool of associates available to Nu Skin.

  • Medifast shares Nu Skin’s dependence on independent people to bring in nutrition customers, but its coaches promote products and plans shipped directly to clients rather than holding inventory. Its active earning coach count is worth comparing with Nu Skin’s sales-leader numbers when assessing the strength of customer acquisition.

Agenda

in 6 daysMon, Oct 26

  1. Time to be announced

    Medifast, Inc. earningsMED

    Medifast’s report will show whether its coach-led nutrition business is retaining people who bring in customers, a useful comparison for Nu Skin’s own sales network.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s rate decision signals the direction of borrowing costs across the economy, which can affect Nu Skin’s interest expense on its variable-rate term loan and the cost of refinancing its credit agreement.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    USANA Health Sciences Inc earningsUSNA

    USANA’s active core nutritional customer count will offer a direct read on demand in a market Nu Skin also serves with its wellness products.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    NuSkin Enterprises, Inc. earningsThis company

    Nu Skin earns from beauty and wellness products sold through its network, and this report will show whether both parts of that business are holding up.