Stock daily read

What happened with NKSH today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NKSH in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

National Bankshares conducts most of its business through its wholly owned subsidiary, The National Bank of Blacksburg (NBB). The bank takes deposits from individuals, businesses, nonprofits and local governments and lends to customers who need financing for property, business operations and personal spending. Borrowers’ interest and loan fees provide most revenue; interest from securities investments is another important source.

The business depends on retaining deposits and earning more on loans and securities than it pays for funding. Nearly all lending is within NBB’s service area across parts of Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee and North Carolina. Most loans are secured by real estate, and most commercial business and commercial real estate borrowers are small or middle-market businesses. Local business conditions, borrowers’ cash flow and property values therefore matter to repayment and loan recovery.

Banking rules require NBB to maintain capital and restrict its activities and distributions. National Bankshares also relies primarily on payments from NBB to fund shareholder dividends, and regulators limit how much the bank may pay its parent.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NKSH’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NKSH says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • First Community Bankshares and National Bankshares compete for individuals’ and businesses’ loans and deposits across overlapping markets in Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina and Tennessee. First Community’s loan demand and deposit pricing offer a useful comparison for the local conditions facing National Bankshares.

  • Carter Bankshares competes with National Bankshares for business, mortgage and consumer banking customers in overlapping Virginia and North Carolina markets. Watch the interest Carter pays on deposits: both banks compete on rates for the deposits that fund their lending.

  • Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.’s expanded banking presence in Virginia and West Virginia puts it in competition with National Bankshares for local businesses and households. Both gather these customers’ deposits and lend to businesses, homebuyers and consumers.

  • Virginia National Bankshares Corporation offers a comparison for National Bankshares because both serve Virginia communities tied to higher education and professional services. Virginia National’s deposit business with local individuals and businesses is worth watching alongside National Bankshares’ lending for college housing and professional office buildings.

  • Peoples Bancorp Inc/OH competes through Peoples Bank with National Bankshares for individuals’ and businesses’ banking relationships in parts of Virginia and West Virginia. Its broader insurance and financing business makes it a less direct comparison with National Bankshares’ lending-led business.

  • F.N.B. Corp competes with National Bankshares for consumer and business banking customers in parts of Virginia, West Virginia and North Carolina, putting the two banks in contention for local lending and deposit relationships.

  • PNC Financial Services Group competes with National Bankshares for household and business deposits and loans in Virginia and other parts of National Bankshares’ service region. PNC’s nationwide business makes its overall results a less direct guide to National Bankshares’ local banking conditions.

Agenda

in 3 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    National Bankshares Inc/VA earningsThis company

    Most of National Bankshares’ revenue comes from loans, so this report shows whether interest income still covers funding costs without credit losses rising.

  2. Time to be announced

    Carter Bankshares, Inc. earningsCARE

    Carter Bankshares competes for deposits in overlapping markets, and its report will show whether the interest it pays on deposits is rising, a sign of funding-cost pressure for National Bankshares.

in 8 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    First Community Bankshares, Inc. earningsFCBC

    First Community Bankshares shares markets with National Bankshares across several states, and its report will show whether local loan demand is keeping pace with deposit growth.

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    For National Bank of Blacksburg, the Fed’s rate decision signals how the cost of deposits and borrowings and the yield on loans and securities may change, affecting the spread that generates net interest income.