Stock daily read

What happened with NABL today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

NABL in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

N-able, Inc. helps IT service providers oversee their customers’ computers and other devices, handle cybersecurity and protect and recover data. Providers can manage multiple customers and sites through one platform, whether those systems run in the cloud, on customers’ premises or both. N-able serves businesses of all sizes but focuses on smaller and midsized organizations and the providers supporting them.

Most commercial relationships are with channel partners, including managed service providers that operate IT systems for other businesses. These partners pay for the volume of software services they and their customers commit to or use, generally priced by device, user or data volume. Subscriptions supply nearly all revenue.

The business depends on customers renewing subscriptions and on providers adding customers, covering more devices or selling additional services that use N-able’s software. Privacy rules can constrain cross-border personal-data transfers, while export controls and sanctions restrict where and to whom N-able can supply its services.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in NABL’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

NABL says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

N-able’s results hinge on managed service providers expanding device coverage and security services; watch ConnectWise, Kaseya and NinjaOne as more direct platform rivals than the public companies listed here.

  • AvePoint competes with N-able for businesses’ data-protection budgets, selling backup and ransomware-recovery software where N-able offers data protection through its subscription platform. Watch AvePoint’s Resilience suite for signs of competition in backup and recovery, one of the areas driving N-able’s subscription growth.

  • Qualys competes with N-able to help businesses track their IT assets, fix security weaknesses and respond to threats, charging for cloud software subscriptions while N-able sells endpoint-management and security subscriptions largely through channel partners. Watch customers’ expansion into additional Qualys apps for evidence of spending on these overlapping tools.

  • Tenable competes with N-able for IT teams’ spending on securing business devices and systems, including tools to install patches. Tenable One helps enterprises find and prioritize security weaknesses; its asset-inventory and patch-management offerings are the parts to watch for overlap with N-able’s endpoint-management and security software.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Tenable Holdings, Inc. earningsTENB

    Tenable's report will show whether businesses are spending more on security and patch-management tools that compete with N-able's endpoint-management and security software.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    N-able’s Fed-linked borrowing costs matter because it owes $400 million on a floating-rate term loan, and interest payments reduce cash available for its software business and operations.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    N-able, Inc. earningsThis company

    N-able sells subscription software largely through channel partners, and this report will show whether customers keep expanding their use and how much long-term contracts affect reported revenue.

  2. Time to be announced

    AvePoint, Inc. earningsAVPT

    AvePoint's report will show what businesses are spending on backup and ransomware recovery, where its Resilience suite competes with N-able's data-protection subscriptions.