AVPT in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
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AvePoint’s Confidence Platform helps technology teams control access to workplace data, back it up and recover it, and move legacy systems and processes to cloud software. It connects with applications and cloud services from providers such as Microsoft, Google and Salesforce, allowing customers to manage data across those environments.
Organizations pay mainly for cloud-software subscriptions, which generate most revenue. Pricing generally depends on the number of users or the amount of data protected. Large enterprises make up the largest share of its recurring subscription base and buy primarily through direct sales teams; smaller businesses rely more on channel partners, including managed service providers.
The business depends on customers renewing subscriptions and buying additional capabilities. AvePoint also relies on Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services to host its services, and must keep its software compatible with the third-party applications customers use.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Commvault competes with AvePoint for customers paying for subscriptions to back up, recover and protect data in SaaS and hybrid cloud environments. Watch Commvault Cloud’s SaaS backup and recovery capabilities, where it overlaps AvePoint’s Resilience suite.
Rubrik competes with AvePoint for enterprise customers buying subscription software to recover from ransomware, monitor data risks and protect data. Watch the Business and Enterprise editions of Rubrik Security Cloud, which add ransomware monitoring and then continuous data-risk monitoring and coordinated recovery.
Microsoft supplies the Microsoft 365 applications whose data AvePoint helps customers protect and govern, but also competes for those customers with Purview governance and Microsoft 365 Backup. Watch those offerings alongside Microsoft 365 adoption: Microsoft both supplies the workloads AvePoint serves and sells alternatives to its protection and governance tools.
N-able, Inc. competes with AvePoint to sell cloud data-protection subscriptions through firms that manage IT for smaller organizations, known as managed service providers. Watch N-able’s data-protection offering for these providers; AvePoint also relies primarily on channel partners, especially these providers, to serve customers with fewer than 500 user seats.
SailPoint, Inc. competes with AvePoint where customers pay to control who can access applications and sensitive data, overlapping AvePoint’s access, entitlement and data-governance tools. Watch SailPoint’s Identity Security Cloud and customer-hosted IdentityIQ, which serve organizations choosing cloud-delivered or locally hosted identity security.
Commault Systems, Inc. earningsCVLT
Commvault’s report will show how much businesses are spending on SaaS backup and recovery, a data-protection budget that its Commvault Cloud and AvePoint’s Resilience suite both seek.
Look for signs of subscription demand in Commvault’s cloud backup and recovery business. Stronger demand would show businesses are willing to pay for cloud data protection, supporting the market AvePoint’s Resilience serves while intensifying competition. Weaker demand would point to tighter budgets for this need, making it harder for AvePoint to win new subscriptions and renewals.
Microsoft Corp earningsMSFT
Microsoft’s report will show how its Microsoft 365 workloads are being used: they supply the data AvePoint protects, while Microsoft’s own backup and governance tools compete for the same customers.
Read Microsoft 365 adoption alongside signs of demand for Microsoft’s own backup and governance tools. Broader adoption while customers still need outside protection and governance would expand the data base AvePoint can serve. If Microsoft’s tools increasingly meet those needs, less of the protection and governance budget may be open to AvePoint.
AvePoint, Inc. earningsThis company
AvePoint’s report will show whether customer demand for its cloud data protection and governance subscriptions is still driving recurring revenue growth.
Read SaaS revenue alongside annual recurring revenue (ARR), the annualized value of active recurring contracts. Growth in both would show customers renewing or adding subscriptions and give the cloud business a firmer base. Slower SaaS or ARR growth, even if services lift total revenue, would mean subscription commitments are weakening and growth relies more on services, which can fluctuate.
N-able, Inc. earningsNABL
N-able’s report will show whether managed service providers (MSPs), which manage IT for smaller organizations, are selling more cloud data protection through the same channel AvePoint relies on for small-business customers.
Look at N-able’s data-protection business serving MSPs. Stronger results would suggest MSPs are seeing more demand for these services, potentially creating more opportunities through the channel AvePoint uses for smaller customers. Weaker results would point to less sales momentum through MSPs, making that route harder for AvePoint to grow.
Rubrik, Inc. earningsRBRK
Rubrik’s report will show whether large enterprises are spending more on ransomware recovery and data-risk monitoring, areas that overlap with AvePoint’s enterprise data-protection business.
Watch demand for Rubrik’s Business and Enterprise editions: they add ransomware monitoring, then continuous data-risk monitoring and coordinated recovery. Stronger demand would show large enterprises are paying for these capabilities, making AvePoint’s enterprise protection market more active but more competitive. Weaker demand would suggest enterprise spending on these needs is under pressure.
SailPoint, Inc. earningsSAIL
SailPoint’s report will show enterprise spending on identity security, which overlaps with the access and entitlement tools in AvePoint’s Control suite.
Look at demand for SailPoint’s cloud-delivered Identity Security Cloud and customer-hosted IdentityIQ. Stronger demand would show enterprises are spending more to control access to applications and sensitive data, making the market for AvePoint’s related tools more active but more competitive. Weaker demand would suggest those budgets may be shrinking.