Stock daily read

What happened with MDIA today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

MDIA in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Mediaco Holding Inc. brings together New York radio stations WQHT and WBLS with Estrella’s radio, television and digital businesses. Its radio operations primarily serve Black, Hispanic and multicultural audiences, while its EstrellaTV network and television stations offer Spanish-language programming. It distributes free, ad-supported content through its stations, affiliated broadcasters and third-party streaming platforms.

Local and national advertisers pay to reach those audiences by buying broadcast commercial time and digital advertising. Radio and television advertising together provide the largest revenue stream, with digital advertising supplying another major share. Events, sponsorships and licensing also bring in revenue but are smaller businesses.

Advertising rates depend largely on attracting the demographic groups advertisers want to reach. MediaCo also relies on outside station operators and distributors to extend its programming’s reach; losing those arrangements can make it less attractive to advertisers. Its U.S. broadcasting operations require FCC licenses and renewal approval, and FCC ownership rules limit expansion through station acquisitions.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in MDIA’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

MDIA says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Urban One and MediaCo both sell radio and digital advertising reaching Black audiences, so spending aimed at those listeners matters to both. Watch Urban One’s local and national radio advertising revenue for a read on demand from advertisers targeting that audience.

  • iHeartMedia and MediaCo compete for advertisers paying to reach radio listeners and audiences for complementary digital audio. iHeartMedia’s podcast and iHeartRadio advertising business is worth watching alongside broadcast radio to gauge where audio advertising spending is going.

  • TOWNSQUARE MEDIA, INC. and MediaCo both earn money from radio audiences and digital advertising, leaving both exposed to advertisers shifting budgets between the two. Watch Townsquare Ignite’s digital advertising revenue alongside its broadcast advertising revenue for evidence of that shift.

  • Alphabet’s YouTube competes with MediaCo’s free, ad-supported digital video for advertisers’ video budgets, even though MediaCo also distributes content through YouTube. Watch YouTube’s video advertising business rather than Alphabet’s overall results when assessing this rivalry.

  • SiriusXM’s Pandora and ad-supported audio businesses compete with MediaCo for listening time and advertisers paying to reach those listeners. Watch those businesses rather than total SiriusXM revenue, which primarily comes from subscription fees.

  • Beasley Broadcasting Group Inc and MediaCo both sell local and national advertisers radio airtime and station-related digital advertising, though their principal station markets differ. Beasley’s local advertising sales and growing digital business offer a comparison for MediaCo’s reliance on local radio advertisers.

  • Saga Communications, Inc. and MediaCo both need to attract the listeners advertisers want and sell businesses campaigns combining radio and digital advertising, despite serving different-sized markets. Watch Saga’s audience ratings: it says the three or four highest-rated stations in many markets capture a disproportionately large share of advertising revenue.

Agenda

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Alphabet Inc. earningsGOOG

    Alphabet’s report shows whether YouTube’s video ad business is competing for the same digital video advertising budgets as MediaCo.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s rate decision signals the direction of borrowing costs, which can change the monthly interest MediaCo pays on its loans and the cost of refinancing, leaving more or less cash for its operations.

in 9 daysThu, Oct 29

  1. Time to be announced

    Sirius XM Holdings, Inc earningsSIRI

    SiriusXM’s report shows how its Pandora and other ad-supported audio businesses are competing with MediaCo for listeners and audio ad budgets.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    TOWNSQUARE MEDIA, INC. earningsTSQ

    Townsquare’s digital and broadcast ad revenue shows whether advertisers are adding to budgets or shifting spending from radio to digital.

in 20 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Beasley Broadcasting Group Inc earningsBBGI

    Beasley’s local ad sales and digital business offer a comparison for MediaCo’s reliance on local radio advertisers.

in 23 daysThu, Nov 12

  1. Time to be announced

    Saga Communications, Inc. earningsSGA

    Saga’s audience ratings show whether its leading stations capture a disproportionate share of advertising revenue, a useful test of how audience strength matters to MediaCo’s ad sales.