Stock daily read

What happened with KR today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

KR in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

The Kroger Co. serves households through supermarkets operating under local names across the United States. Shoppers buy food and other everyday products in stores or order online for pickup or delivery; many stores also have pharmacies and fuel centers. Retail sales provide nearly all its revenue. Kroger earns a profit when selling prices cover the cost of buying and distributing products, running its locations and other business expenses. Its own-brand range includes Kroger and Simple Truth, with products supplied by its food plants and outside manufacturers.

The same shopping activity also supports an advertising business. Most transactions are linked to loyalty cards, giving Kroger information about household purchases. Kroger Precision Marketing uses that information to sell targeted digital and in-store advertising to consumer-packaged-goods companies and other industry partners, and to measure whether shoppers buy the advertised products. This business depends on the customers and data generated by grocery retail.

Kroger's business depends on keeping shoppers coming back and fulfilling online orders cost-effectively. It also needs reliable supplies of products that meet its quality and safety standards. Food and drug rules govern what it can sell, while its pharmacies must comply with prescription and controlled-substance requirements.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in KR’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

KR says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Albertsons competes with Kroger for U.S. shoppers buying groceries, prescriptions and fuel, while their terminated merger also leaves Kroger exposed to litigation. Watch Albertsons’ claim for a $600 million termination fee, which Kroger disputes, alongside damages to be determined at trial.

  • Walmart’s everyday-low-price strategy puts pressure on Kroger’s grocery pricing as both sell to shoppers in stores and online. Watch Walmart’s efforts to cut expenses and pass the savings to customers: they show the price challenge facing Kroger’s grocery sales.

  • Costco’s low-price membership warehouses compete with Kroger supermarkets for households’ grocery spending, and Costco names Kroger as a significant U.S. competitor. Its limited assortment and rapid inventory turnover let it operate profitably at lower gross margins than most retailers—a useful comparison for Kroger’s grocery margins.

  • Sprouts Farmers Market competes with Kroger for shoppers buying fresh, natural and organic foods, directly overlapping Kroger’s Simple Truth range. Sprouts’ sales of those foods are the part to watch when assessing competition for Kroger’s fresh-food and natural-and-organic offering.

  • BJ’s Wholesale Club competes with Kroger for households’ grocery, fresh-food and gasoline spending, selling through warehouses that charge members an annual fee. BJ’s says a representative basket of manufacturer-branded groceries costs up to 25% less than at traditional supermarkets, a concrete price benchmark for Kroger.

  • Amazon competes with Kroger for grocery shoppers through Whole Foods and online grocery delivery. Its cloud and other retail businesses make Amazon’s overall results a less direct comparison for Kroger than its grocery business.

  • Ingles Markets competes with Kroger and its Harris Teeter stores for local grocery shoppers in the southeastern United States. Its supermarket sales offer a regional view of competition where store location, price and shopping convenience matter.

  • Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. competes with Kroger for shoppers in overlapping U.S. markets by selling discounted branded foods and everyday staples. Watch its ability to buy discounted merchandise and refresh its changing assortment, which underpins its alternative to Kroger’s grocery offering.

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  • Weis Markets offers a smaller regional comparison for Kroger because both earn their core revenue selling food to U.S. shoppers. Weis’s food sales and supermarket margins in Pennsylvania and surrounding states provide a regional check on grocery demand and operating costs, rather than a nationwide read.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. 10:30 AMET

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)

    For Kroger, weekly crude oil and gasoline stock readings track how much fuel is in storage, which can shift the cost of supplying its fuel centers and what customers pay at the pump, affecting fuel sales and earnings.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced

    Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. earningsSFM

    Sprouts Farmers Market's report will show how shoppers are responding to fresh, natural and organic foods—the categories where it competes with Kroger.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. 8:30 AMET pre-market

    Retail Sales MoM (Oct)

    Retail sales track how much consumers spend at retailers; stronger or weaker spending can affect demand for the groceries and other consumer products Kroger sells, changing sales revenue.

in 30 daysThu, Nov 19

  1. Time to be announced

    Walmart Inc. earningsWMT

    Walmart's report will show whether its low-price grocery offer is drawing shoppers, revealing the pricing pressure Kroger faces.

in 44 daysThu, Dec 3

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    The Kroger Co. earningsThis company

    Kroger sells groceries in stores and online, so this report will show whether comparable store sales can grow without squeezing the margin left after paying for products.

in 51 daysThu, Dec 10

  1. Time to be announced

    Costco Wholesale Corp earningsCOST

    Costco's report will show whether its low-price warehouses keep attracting grocery spending, a distinct price and margin challenge for Kroger.