Stock daily read

What happened with HLMN today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

HLMN in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Hillman Solutions Corp. helps hardware stores, home centers and other retailers manage small items that can be difficult to stock and organize. Retailers buy products such as screws, anchors and work gloves, while Hillman’s field staff review inventory, replenish stock and maintain displays. Fasteners and related hardware account for most revenue; protective products are the next-largest product line. The store services support these product sales rather than forming a separate software business.

Hillman also earns from keys and identification tags sold through equipment installed in stores. It owns the machines: consumers use MinuteKey kiosks themselves, while store associates operate KeyKrafter systems. Quick-Tag machines let consumers engrave tags. This business earns from selling keys and tags, not from selling the installed equipment.

Home Depot and Lowe’s are its largest customers and together supply a large share of revenue, making reliable deliveries and store service important to retaining their business. Sales also depend on home repair and remodeling activity. Hillman imports most of its products, with China and Taiwan important supply sources. Imports face customs requirements and tariffs, so maintaining margins depends in part on passing higher costs through to customers or finding alternative supplies.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in HLMN’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

HLMN says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Also watch Lowe’s, absent from this list: it accounted for 20.9% of Hillman’s 2025 revenue, making it another major dependency.

  • Hillman depends heavily on Home Depot, which buys its hardware and related products and accounted for 22.5% of Hillman’s 2025 sales. Home Depot resells home-improvement products to consumers and professionals, so spending by those customers is worth watching for Hillman’s demand.

  • Simpson Manufacturing competes with Hillman in construction fasteners and anchors, selling products used in wood and concrete construction while Hillman supplies fastening products to retailers. Watch Simpson’s fastener and anchor business rather than its broader structural-product sales for the overlap with Hillman.

  • Illinois Tool Works competes with Hillman to sell fasteners to national retail accounts, where sourcing and price are central to competition. ITW also sells a much broader range of industrial products and equipment, so its overall results are less focused on this rivalry than news about fasteners sold to those retailers.

  • Stanley Black & Decker shares Hillman’s exposure to repair and construction spending: it sells tools and accessories used on the projects that require Hillman’s retail-supplied fasteners and hardware. Its tool and accessory sales are the relevant demand signal, rather than its entire business.

  • Masco and Hillman both depend on home repair and remodeling spending: Masco supplies branded products such as paint and faucets, while Hillman supplies hardware and fasteners to retailers. Masco’s Decorative Architectural Products sales normally strengthen in the second and third calendar quarters, when repair and remodeling activity peaks.

  • Tractor Supply buys from Hillman and sells hardware and clothing to rural customers, whose maintenance needs support demand for Hillman’s hardware and protective products. Watch those retail categories rather than Tractor Supply’s livestock or companion-animal sales for the closer connection to Hillman.

  • UFP Industries’ retail business and Hillman serve the same home-improvement projects: UFP supplies decking and other building products to big-box retailers, while Hillman supplies retail hardware and fasteners. UFP’s Retail Solutions sales to those retailers are the closer signal for Hillman, rather than its packaging business.

Agenda

in 7 daysTue, Oct 27

  1. Time to be announced

    Illinois Tool Works Inc. earningsITW

    Illinois Tool Works’ report can show how fastener sales and price competition are playing out at national retail accounts, the same channel where Hillman sells.

in 13 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Hillman Solutions Corp. earningsThis company

    Hillman sells hardware and fasteners mainly through retailers, and this report will show whether it can pass on higher costs without losing sales volume.

in 28 daysTue, Nov 17

  1. Time to be announced

    Home Depot, Inc. earningsHD

    Home Depot is Hillman’s largest customer, and its report will show whether homeowner and professional demand is supporting sales of Hillman’s hardware there.