GGG in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
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Graco makes equipment that pumps, mixes, dispenses and sprays materials such as paint, coatings, sealants and adhesives, including thick or abrasive materials that are difficult to handle. Most revenue comes from two businesses of similar size. Contractor, the larger business, supplies paint sprayers and other application equipment to professional painters, specialty contractors and do-it-yourself homeowners. Industrial supplies factories with fluid-handling and liquid- and powder-coating equipment, and also sells lubrication and vehicle-servicing equipment.
Independent distributors and selected retailers buy equipment from Graco and resell it to users worldwide. Industrial distributors and system integrators also help customers choose equipment, incorporate it into production lines and service it. Some businesses sell directly to end users, including systems designed and installed to customer requirements.
Demand depends on building, renovation and maintenance work, as well as industrial customers’ equipment spending. Contractor relies on a few large channel partners for a significant share of its revenue. One unnamed customer buying across Contractor and Industrial also accounts for a substantial share of company sales.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Nordson competes with Graco for manufacturers buying equipment to dispense and apply coatings, adhesives and sealants on production lines. Its automated dispensing business is worth watching for signs of manufacturers’ spending on these systems.
Ingersoll Rand competes with Graco to sell industrial customers pumps and specialized equipment for handling liquids and powders. Watch its Precision and Science Technologies business: customers must qualify most products for specific uses, making product quality and performance central to this competition.
IDEX overlaps with Graco in selling industrial customers pumps, fluid-control components and dispensing equipment, exposing both to demand for specialized fluid handling. Its Pumps, Valves and Dispensing businesses are the parts most relevant to this overlap.
Illinois Tool Works and Graco depend on spending by automakers, industrial businesses and construction customers, though they sell different products and equipment. ITW’s Automotive OEM and Construction Products sales offer a read on markets that also buy Graco’s factory coating systems and contractors’ paint sprayers.
H.B. Fuller shares Graco’s exposure to manufacturing and construction: Fuller sells adhesives and sealants, while Graco sells equipment to dispense and apply those materials. Fuller’s industrial adhesives and building adhesives sales can help gauge activity among these users, rather than their equipment spending.
Lincoln Electric and Graco both depend on manufacturers investing in production equipment: Lincoln sells welding and automation systems, while Graco sells coating and dispensing systems. Lincoln’s automation business is worth watching for manufacturers’ willingness to invest in their production lines.
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. shares Graco’s exposure to residential and non-residential construction, selling structural connectors and anchors while Graco sells contractors equipment to paint and coat buildings. Simpson’s construction-product sales are worth watching because Graco’s Contractor segment accounted for about 48% of its 2025 sales.
Housing Starts (Sep)
Home starts, permits and sales track new-home building and demand, which can affect contractor and channel-partner purchases of Graco’s paint, texture and other application equipment.
Expected1.31MLast release1.275M
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 1.31M estimate, it is above the previous 1.275M. More homebuilding activity may lift demand for Graco’s Contractor equipment, prompting its distributor and retailer channels to replenish products for professional painters, specialty contractors and do-it-yourselfers.
If it comes in below expectations
Less homebuilding may weaken demand for Graco’s Contractor equipment, leading distributors and retailers to reduce or delay purchases as residential construction remains soft.
Graco Inc earningsThis company
Graco sells fluid-handling equipment mainly through distributors, and its report will show whether customer demand and pricing can lift sales and cover rising product costs.
Separate changes in volume and price in Graco’s businesses from sales growth due to acquisitions and currency, then compare them with gross margin—the share of sales left after product costs. Stronger volume and price with a steady margin would show that customer demand and pricing are supporting growth and absorbing costs; growth mainly from acquisitions or currency alongside a falling margin would show that the existing business is weaker and pricing is not covering costs.
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. earningsSSD
Simpson Manufacturing’s report will show demand for residential and non-residential construction products, a market that also shapes sales of Graco’s contractors’ coating equipment.
Read Simpson Manufacturing’s construction-product sales alongside volume and price in Graco’s Contractor business. Stronger sales would suggest building activity is holding up, giving contractors more reason to buy Graco spraying equipment; weaker sales would point to continued pressure on construction demand facing Graco’s largest business.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. earningsITW
Illinois Tool Works’ Automotive OEM and Construction Products sales will show how automakers and construction customers are spending; those customers also buy Graco’s factory coating systems and contractors’ sprayers.
Look at sales in Illinois Tool Works’ Automotive OEM and Construction Products businesses alongside sales in Graco’s Industrial and Contractor businesses. Strength in both of ITW’s businesses would suggest firmer investment by customers who also buy Graco’s factory coating systems and contractors’ sprayers; weakness would mean those markets offer less support for Graco.
Durable Goods Orders MoM (Sep)
Orders for long-lasting goods and equipment show whether manufacturers are buying more, which can change demand for Graco’s fluid-finishing, dispensing and pumping equipment used in manufacturing, vehicle production, aerospace and rail.
Expected0.2%Last release-0.1%
If it comes in above expectations
If the reading is above the 0.2% estimate, it is above the previous -0.1%. More orders point to stronger factory and business investment demand, which may lead Graco’s Industrial customers to buy more equipment and support sales through its distributors.
If it comes in below expectations
Fewer orders point to weaker factory and business investment demand, which may lead Graco’s Industrial customers to defer equipment purchases and reduce distributor sales.
IDEX Corporation earningsIEX
IDEX’s Pumps, Valves and Dispensing businesses overlap with parts of Graco’s industrial equipment range, so its report will show demand for specialized fluid-handling equipment from industrial customers.
Look at sales in IDEX’s Pumps, Valves and Dispensing businesses alongside sales in Graco’s Industrial segment. Strength at IDEX would suggest industrial customers are still buying specialized fluid-handling equipment, supporting demand for Graco’s overlapping products; weakness would point to shared customers tightening purchases.
Industrial Production MoM (Oct)
Factory, mine and utility output, and how much of their capacity they use, track industrial activity that can change demand from Graco’s manufacturing and vehicle-production customers for its Industrial equipment.
Rising output and capacity use would suggest stronger industrial activity and potential support for Graco’s Industrial equipment sales; falling readings would suggest customers may reduce or delay purchases.