FIS in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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What happened with FIS today?
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Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) helps financial institutions run their banking systems and process transactions. Banks, credit unions and other lenders pay it for software and processing services, often under multi-year contracts. Banking Solutions supplies most of its revenue, and recurring processing and services are its largest source of revenue overall.
Its other main business, Capital Markets, provides systems that asset managers, securities firms, insurers and corporations use to keep financial records, trade and manage cash and risk. Clients can license software and pay FIS to maintain or manage it, or outsource the operation to FIS. The former Worldpay merchant-services business is no longer part of its continuing operations.
The business depends on clients continuing these relationships and on the volume of transactions it processes. Large clients provide significant revenue, but no single client dominates. Because FIS handles financial transactions and sensitive data, banking regulators oversee its services, while privacy and cybersecurity rules constrain how it processes and transfers information across borders.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
FIS's results hinge on banks' and investment firms' demand for recurring processing and software, with privately held Finastra an important rival in core banking.
Fiserv competes with FIS for banks' spending on systems that maintain accounts, process payments and provide ongoing financial software services. Its account- and transaction-based processing fees under multi-year contracts are the revenue stream to watch alongside FIS's recurring banking revenue.
Jack Henry competes with FIS for community banks' and credit unions' contracts to run account systems, process payments and supply complementary software. Watch its hosted services and recurring electronic payments revenue: those contracts typically run for six years, making them a useful comparison for FIS's multi-year banking contracts.
SS&C and FIS both sell investment firms software to account for securities, assess risk and outsource financial operations. SS&C's revenue from software-enabled outsourced services and hosted cloud subscriptions offers a comparison for demand in FIS's capital-markets business.
Broadridge competes with FIS for brokerages' and asset managers' spending on technology and outsourced operations, using shared platforms to handle processing, analytics and reporting. Its Global Technology and Operations results are the closer comparison for FIS's capital-markets software business, rather than its larger investor communications segment.
Global Payments is tied to FIS through the Worldpay and Issuer Solutions transactions: services that help merchants accept and process payments moved to Global Payments, while processing for card issuers moved to FIS.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
FIS’s rate-sensitive debt means the Fed’s decisions about borrowing costs can change what it pays to finance its business.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If rates rise, FIS may pay more interest on debt that reprices and new borrowing, leaving less cash for its operations and investment.
If it comes in below expectations
If rates fall, FIS may pay less interest on debt that reprices and new borrowing, leaving more cash for its operations and investment.
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. earningsThis company
FIS’s report will show whether recurring revenue growth in Banking and Capital Markets is turning into segment profit or being absorbed by costs and revenue mix.
Read recurring revenue growth in Banking and Capital Markets alongside each segment’s adjusted EBITDA margin. Adjusted EBITDA is FIS’s segment profit measure before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and certain other items. Revenue growth with stable or rising margins means the added business is contributing profit; growth with falling margins means costs or revenue mix are absorbing some of it. The test is whether growth reaches segment profit.
Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc earningsBR
Broadridge’s Global Technology and Operations results will show whether brokerages and asset managers are still spending in the technology and outsourced-operations market where it competes with FIS’s Capital Markets business.
Focus on revenue and profitability in Broadridge’s Global Technology and Operations business, not its larger investor communications segment. Growth with steady profitability would show that clients are still paying for technology and outsourced processing, analytics and reporting—and that a competitor to FIS is performing well. Weaker revenue or profitability could reflect slower client spending, tougher competition or higher costs. Broadridge’s results alone cannot distinguish among those causes or establish FIS’s own results.
Fiserv, Inc. earningsFISV
Fiserv’s report will show how banks are spending on account and payment processing, the same multi-year services that underpin FIS’s recurring Banking revenue.
Watch how Fiserv’s revenue from account and transaction processing changes. Growth would show that banks are still paying for ongoing services such as running account systems and processing payments, supporting the market FIS serves. Weakness could point to pressure on bank activity or spending. Fiserv’s growth does not establish growth at FIS, and weakness does not mean clients are moving to FIS; each company’s own results must settle that.
Global Payments, Inc. earningsGPN
Global Payments’ report will show how the merchant payment services that moved to it are doing, giving context on payment activity around FIS’s separate card-issuer processing business.
Read the overall results of Global Payments’ merchant payment services. Stronger results would show firmer activity in the merchant-processing business that moved to Global Payments, a constructive backdrop for payment activity; weaker results would point to pressure on the merchant side. Those services and FIS’s card-issuer processing business are now in different companies, so this is context—not proof that FIS’s processing volumes or revenue moved the same way.
Retail Sales MoM (Oct)
Retail sales track how much consumers spend at stores, and stronger or weaker spending can change transaction volumes and processing-fee revenue for FIS’s payment services.
Stronger retail sales suggest more consumer spending that may lift payment volumes and fees for FIS; weaker sales suggest less spending that may weigh on both.