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What happened with CRC today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CRC in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

California Resources Corporation develops and operates oil and gas fields in California and Utah, with most production concentrated in California. Crude oil supplies most of its revenue; natural gas and liquids extracted from gas contribute smaller amounts. It does not refine its crude: nearly all its California oil goes to local refiners, largely through gathering systems connected to third-party pipelines.

Cash generation depends on production volumes, market oil prices and access to refineries. Most production is priced against Brent, with adjustments. The suspension of the San Pablo Bay Pipeline cut off access to Bay Area refiners, prompting the company to redirect shipments toward Southern California. Drilling also requires government permits, and delays in California approvals have constrained development.

Its Carbon TerraVault business is developing projects to capture carbon dioxide from emissions sources and store it permanently underground, but has not yet reported revenue. It works with Brookfield through a joint venture whose further funding depends on permitted storage capacity and project approvals. Project economics rely on tax credits and other incentives. Storage requires injection permits, and California restricts carbon-dioxide pipeline transport until federal pipeline-safety rules are finalized.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CRC’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CRC says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

California Resources’ earnings hinge on crude prices and access to California refiners, while its emerging carbon-storage business also depends on permits, tax credits and joint-venture partner Brookfield.

  • Occidental and California Resources both sell produced oil and develop businesses that store CO2 underground, exposing both to crude prices and carbon-storage economics. Occidental’s work separating, transporting and storing CO2 offers a comparison for California Resources’ emerging storage projects.

  • SM Energy and California Resources compete to sell Uinta Basin oil to regional refiners and secure transportation to those buyers. Watch SM Energy’s Uinta production: more barrels must find buyers and transport in the same regional market.

  • Valero historically bought California Resources’ crude at Benicia and refines oil into fuels sold to wholesalers and other buyers; its planned cessation there removes a nearby outlet for California Resources. Watch Benicia and related transport access: Bay Area pipeline shipments have already stopped, forcing California Resources toward Southern California markets with higher expected transportation costs.

  • ConocoPhillips sells Alaskan crude that competes with California Resources’ California oil for purchases by West Coast refiners.

  • Chord Energy and California Resources sell oil to refiners and marketers at market-linked prices reduced by regional transport and quality adjustments. Chord’s oil-sale differentials show how much transport and local conditions can change the price a producer actually receives, a key issue for California Resources as it reroutes crude south.

  • Crescent Energy and California Resources earn cash by selling production from established oil and gas properties and enlarge that production base through acquisitions. Crescent’s spending to maintain production offers a comparison for how much cash California Resources can retain from its acquired fields.

  • Diamondback Energy and California Resources earn revenue from producing and selling oil, so crude prices materially affect both revenue and investment returns. Diamondback’s control over field costs and drilling pace in the Permian offers a comparison for protecting oil-production margins.

  • Devon Energy and California Resources both sell oil-heavy production at prices that move with the market. Devon’s oil sales remain market-sensitive even under long-term contracts, making its oil revenue a useful comparison rather than treating contract length as protection from lower prices.

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  • EOG Resources and California Resources earn their main operating revenue by producing and selling oil and gas, not by refining oil into fuels. EOG’s production costs and margins offer a comparison for the cash California Resources earns from selling its crude to refiners.

  • Permian Resources and California Resources sell produced oil and gas at market-linked prices, but their regional pricing and operating conditions differ. Compare Permian Resources’ Delaware Basin selling prices with California Resources’ largely Brent-linked California production rather than assuming both receive the same oil price.

  • Matador and California Resources both sell oil-heavy production, leaving earnings sensitive to crude prices and production costs. Matador’s Delaware Basin results offer a production-margin comparison, but its fees for processing and transporting other companies’ output are a separate source of revenue.

  • Northern Oil and Gas owns shares of producing wells in the Uinta Basin, where California Resources also produces oil, giving both exposure to local production economics and crude prices. It pays to participate while other companies run the wells; its decisions to join fewer proposed wells when oil prices fall show how prices can curb investment.

  • Canadian Natural and California Resources both sell production from oil-heavy portfolios, with cash flow depending on crude prices and the cost of sustaining established fields. Canadian Natural’s heavy-oil and oil-sands operations provide a different operating mix for comparing those sustaining costs.

  • Magnolia and California Resources earn cash by producing and selling oil and gas; selling prices and reinvestment discipline shape what remains for shareholders. Watch the cash Magnolia’s South Texas production leaves after drilling and completing wells, which its model directs toward dividends and share repurchases.

  • Ovintiv and California Resources both produce and sell oil and natural gas liquids, so received prices and production costs drive cash flow. Ovintiv’s Permian and Montney results offer a comparison for how operating efficiency and sales arrangements preserve cash through commodity-price cycles.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. 10:30 AMET

    EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16)

    For California Resources, the EIA’s weekly counts of US crude oil and gasoline in storage signal how tight supply is, which can move the Brent- and WTI-linked prices its oil sales earn.

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Valero Energy Corporation earningsVLO

    If Valero’s report discusses Benicia and its crude purchases, it can show whether California Resources must keep routing oil farther to find buyers after losing that outlet.

in 13 daysMon, Nov 2

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    California Resources Corporation earningsThis company

    California Resources’ report will show whether production added through acquisitions can offset the pressure of oil prices and rerouted crude costs on oil-and-gas profit.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Chord Energy Corporation earningsCHRD

    Chord Energy’s report can show how transport and local conditions reduce the oil price a producer receives, offering a reference for California Resources’ crude rerouting costs.

  2. Time to be announced

    SM Energy Company earningsSM

    SM Energy’s report will show how much oil it produces in Utah’s Uinta Basin, adding a read on the supply competing with California Resources for regional refiners and transport.

in 20 daysMon, Nov 9

  1. Time to be announced

    Occidental Petroleum Corporation earningsOXY

    If Occidental’s report discusses carbon capture, transport and storage projects, it offers an industry reference for California Resources’ carbon-management business, which has yet to generate revenue.