What happened with COP today?
No read yet
Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.
Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.
Crude oil supplies most of ConocoPhillips’ revenue, with natural gas the next-largest product line. Its operations span several countries, but production is concentrated in the contiguous United States. It transports and markets its output and also buys commodities from other producers for resale. Gas buyers include utilities, large industrial companies and energy marketers. A single pipeline company is a significant customer of its contiguous-U.S. business and accounts for a meaningful share of company-wide sales.
ConocoPhillips also owns stakes in facilities that turn natural gas into liquid for shipment overseas, known as LNG. At Australia Pacific LNG, it operates the liquefaction facility and export sales business; Sinopec and Kansai Electric Power buy the LNG under long-term agreements.
What ConocoPhillips earns depends heavily on oil and gas market prices, not just how much it produces. It must replace resources depleted by production and have enough processing and transport capacity to deliver its output. Development requires government rights and permits; restrictions on hydraulic fracturing can limit access to oil and gas, while production limits and export rules can constrain what it produces or sells.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
ConocoPhillips’ results depend chiefly on oil and gas prices, but also watch QatarEnergy, its important partner in Qatar LNG investment and liquids marketing.
EOG Resources and ConocoPhillips share exposure to oil and gas prices: both produce and sell crude oil, natural gas liquids and gas largely from U.S. basins. EOG’s low-cost drilling and production margins offer a comparison for ConocoPhillips’ U.S. operations.
Devon Energy shares ConocoPhillips’ exposure to market-priced oil, gas and natural gas liquids in the Delaware, Eagle Ford and Williston basins. Watch Devon’s Delaware results: it is Devon’s largest, best-funded drilling program and overlaps ConocoPhillips’ production base.
Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips compete to sell oil and gas, with both heavily exposed to Permian Basin development and crude prices. Occidental’s Permian drilling costs and production performance provide a comparison for ConocoPhillips’ operations there.
Diamondback Energy shares ConocoPhillips’ drilling economics in the Midland and Delaware basins, where both develop oil and gas from unconventional rock formations. Watch Diamondback’s well costs and development pace for a comparison with ConocoPhillips’ Permian production.
Chevron competes with ConocoPhillips to produce and sell oil, gas and LNG worldwide, with substantial overlap in the Permian Basin. Chevron’s Permian well productivity is a useful comparison for ConocoPhillips, rather than its refining and fuel-sales results.
ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips both produce and sell crude oil and natural gas worldwide, so oil and gas prices affect both. Compare ExxonMobil’s oil and gas production results, not its combined earnings, which also include refining, petroleum products and chemicals.
Ovintiv shares ConocoPhillips’ oil, gas and natural gas liquids exposure in both the Permian Basin and Canada’s Montney. Its production and drilling returns in those two areas offer comparisons for ConocoPhillips on both sides of the border.
Permian Resources and ConocoPhillips both produce and sell oil, natural gas liquids and gas from the Delaware Basin, sharing local drilling economics and market-price exposure. Watch the prices Permian Resources receives after contractual adjustments for a comparison with ConocoPhillips’ sales there.
BP competes with ConocoPhillips in producing and trading oil and gas, including U.S. onshore production through bpx energy. BP’s oil-production and gas-trading results are closer comparisons for ConocoPhillips than its retail fuel or refining results.
APA and ConocoPhillips share global oil and gas price exposure and substantial Permian production, selling oil and gas internationally. APA’s Permian drilling and completion costs are worth watching because the basin is its largest source of production and cash flow.
Chord Energy shares ConocoPhillips’ Bakken oil, gas and natural gas liquids exposure in the Williston Basin, selling to refiners, marketers and other buyers. Chord’s crude selling prices after regional and transport adjustments offer a comparison for ConocoPhillips’ Bakken sales.
Equinor and ConocoPhillips compete to sell Norwegian natural gas to European customers and LNG internationally. Watch Equinor’s gas sales to the UK and mainland Europe for a comparison with the market facing ConocoPhillips’ Norwegian gas.
Suncor Energy and ConocoPhillips both sell Canadian oil-sands bitumen into crude markets, so bitumen prices and discounts matter to both. Watch Suncor’s bitumen sales to refiners separately from its upgraded oil and refining results when comparing with ConocoPhillips’ Surmont production.
MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY and ConocoPhillips both produce oil and gas in the Delaware Basin, sharing local drilling and transport constraints. Matador also earns fees processing gas and moving oil for other producers; its Delaware processing capacity and drilling progress are useful signals of conditions facing ConocoPhillips there.
SM Energy shares ConocoPhillips’ oil, gas and natural gas liquids markets in the Midland Basin and South Texas. Oil supplied 82% of SM Energy’s 2025 production revenue, making its oil-sales results the clearest comparison for ConocoPhillips’ exposure in those regions.
Imperial Oil and ConocoPhillips both produce and sell Canadian bitumen and crude oil, sharing exposure to their prices. Imperial’s production results are the closer comparison for ConocoPhillips’ Surmont business, since Imperial also earns money refining oil and selling chemicals.
Crescent Energy both competes with ConocoPhillips in oil and gas production and supplies it with hydrocarbons that ConocoPhillips can market. ConocoPhillips accounted for 13.5% of Crescent’s 2025 revenue, making Crescent’s sales to it a direct window into this purchasing relationship.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation shares ConocoPhillips’ oil, gas and natural gas liquids exposure in South Texas’ Eagle Ford region. Watch Magnolia’s production growth and cash left after drilling spending for a comparison with returns from ConocoPhillips’ Eagle Ford wells.
Murphy Oil and ConocoPhillips share oil and North American gas price exposure because both produce and sell crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids in the United States and Canada. Murphy’s separate U.S. and Canadian production results provide geographic comparisons for ConocoPhillips.
Northern Oil and Gas shares ConocoPhillips’ Williston and Permian oil and gas exposure, but pays for a share of wells run by other companies and sells its share of production rather than operating the wells itself. Its decisions to fund new wells offer a view of drilling returns, as lower oil prices typically reduce both proposals and its participation.
Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG construction progress directly affects ConocoPhillips as a Phase 1 co-owner and a buyer of a combined 9 million tonnes a year from Phases 1 and 2. Watch the liquefaction units’ start dates: Sempra expects the first two at or near the end of 2027 and in 2028, and the next two in 2030 and 2031.
Cheniere Energy and ConocoPhillips compete to sell LNG to global energy companies and utilities, but Cheniere’s customers generally owe fixed fees even if they cancel cargoes, making its earnings less sensitive to commodity prices. Its sales of uncontracted LNG are the closer comparison for ConocoPhillips’ exposure to global LNG prices.
Venture Global sells LNG internationally and explicitly names ConocoPhillips as a current or potential competitor. Watch its sales of LNG produced during plant testing and above contracted volumes, which expose it to the international market in which ConocoPhillips also sells LNG.
WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC helps ConocoPhillips keep Delaware Basin wells producing by gathering, moving, recycling and handling the water that comes up with oil and gas. Watch its water volumes and available handling capacity: basin activity drives throughput, while unreliable water handling can force producers to shut wells.
ConocoPhillips depends on NextDecade Corporation’s Rio Grande LNG Train 5 for contracted purchases of 1 million tonnes of LNG a year for 20 years, priced against Henry Hub gas. Watch Train 5’s completion and reliable operation, which underpin this supply for ConocoPhillips’ LNG portfolio.
Equinor ASA earningsEQNR
Equinor's gas sales to the UK and mainland Europe show the market that also buys ConocoPhillips' Norwegian gas.
Read Equinor's gas sales to the UK and mainland Europe alongside ConocoPhillips' Norwegian gas sales and realized prices. Stronger sales would point to a market absorbing gas well, which supports the market ConocoPhillips sells into; weaker sales would suggest demand or competition is making that market harder. The takeaway is whether conditions for Norwegian gas are firming or softening.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Fed decisions track the benchmark rate that helps set borrowing costs; ConocoPhillips reports $23.4 billion of debt, but its filing does not identify general interest rates as a main business driver.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
If the rate is higher than expected, borrowing costs could rise on debt that reprices and on new borrowing, though the filing does not say general rates are a main driver of ConocoPhillips’ business.
If it comes in below expectations
If the rate is lower than expected, borrowing costs could fall on debt that reprices and on new borrowing, though the filing does not say general rates are a main driver of ConocoPhillips’ business.
Cheniere Energy Inc earningsLNG
Cheniere Energy's sales of uncontracted LNG show demand in the international market where ConocoPhillips also sells LNG.
Focus on Cheniere Energy's uncontracted LNG sales, not its overall results. Stronger sales would indicate demand for additional cargoes and support the market in which ConocoPhillips sells LNG at global prices; weaker sales would point to less support for those sales. The takeaway is how much the international LNG market is backing ConocoPhillips' market-priced volumes.
Chevron Corporation earningsCVX
Chevron's Permian well productivity gives a direct peer comparison for ConocoPhillips' Permian production.
Compare Chevron's Permian well productivity and development pace with ConocoPhillips' production in the basin. Strong productivity and steady development would suggest supportive conditions in this shared area; weaker productivity or slower development would point to tougher operating conditions or weaker drilling returns for ConocoPhillips to assess. The takeaway is whether Permian production economics look stronger or weaker.
Imperial Oil Limited earningsIMO
Imperial Oil's Canadian oil-sands production gives a peer comparison for ConocoPhillips' Surmont operation.
Compare Imperial Oil's production results with changes in ConocoPhillips' Surmont output. Steady production would show that a comparable Canadian oil-sands business is sustaining operations; weaker production would point to greater operating challenges in the sector. The takeaway is whether the operating backdrop for Surmont looks steady or strained.
Crescent Energy Company earningsCRGY
Crescent Energy sells hydrocarbons to ConocoPhillips, and its report can show how that direct supply relationship is changing.
Read Crescent Energy's sales to ConocoPhillips alongside ConocoPhillips' third-party purchases and sales. Stronger sales would mean more hydrocarbons from this supplier for ConocoPhillips to market; weaker sales would mean less support from this supply channel. The takeaway is whether this direct purchasing relationship is expanding or contracting.
Chord Energy Corporation earningsCHRD
Chord Energy's Bakken crude prices, after regional and transport adjustments, offer a comparison for ConocoPhillips' Bakken sales.
Compare Chord Energy's crude prices after regional and transport adjustments with ConocoPhillips' realized prices for comparable sales. Stronger prices would show buyers are paying more locally and support the market for ConocoPhillips' Bakken sales; weaker prices would point to a heavier regional discount or transport burden. The takeaway is whether Bakken pricing is improving or worsening relative to the broader market.
MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY earningsMTDR
Matador Resources' Delaware Basin gas-processing capacity and drilling progress show infrastructure conditions facing ConocoPhillips' local production.
Read Matador Resources' Delaware Basin processing capacity alongside its drilling progress. More capacity with steady drilling would suggest infrastructure is keeping pace with activity; tight capacity or stalled progress would point to higher handling or transport costs, or possible curtailments, for ConocoPhillips. The takeaway is whether local infrastructure is keeping up or becoming a constraint.
Ovintiv Inc. earningsOVV
Ovintiv's Montney production and drilling returns provide a peer comparison for ConocoPhillips' Canadian oil and gas operations.
Focus on Ovintiv's Montney production and drilling returns, and compare them with ConocoPhillips' Canadian production. Improving output and returns would suggest shared regional conditions are supporting added production; rising output with weaker returns would show that more production is not necessarily more rewarding. The takeaway is whether conditions for ConocoPhillips' Canadian operations look more favorable.
Suncor Energy, Inc. earningsSU
Suncor's separately reported bitumen sales show the crude-market pricing facing ConocoPhillips' Surmont bitumen.
Compare Suncor's bitumen sales to refiners with the realized price for ConocoPhillips' Surmont bitumen. Stronger prices would show better support for oil-sands crude in the market and support ConocoPhillips' comparable product; weaker prices would mean more pressure on Surmont's realized price. The takeaway is whether Canadian oil-sands pricing is improving or deteriorating.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation earningsMGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas' Eagle Ford production and cash left after drilling spending offer a comparison for ConocoPhillips' local well returns.
Read Magnolia Oil & Gas' Eagle Ford production growth alongside the cash it retains after drilling spending. Growth with cash left over would indicate better returns from added production; growth with less cash remaining would suggest weaker returns or a greater need to spend. The takeaway is whether the regional comparison for ConocoPhillips' Eagle Ford wells is strengthening or weakening.
Permian Resources Corporation earningsPR
Permian Resources' adjusted Delaware Basin prices show local pricing conditions facing ConocoPhillips' sales there.
Compare Permian Resources' Delaware Basin prices after contractual adjustments with ConocoPhillips' realized prices for comparable products. Stronger adjusted prices would show that local producers are keeping more value and support ConocoPhillips' similar sales; weaker prices would indicate that regional or contractual deductions are reducing what producers receive. The takeaway is whether local pricing adjustments help or hurt ConocoPhillips' Delaware sales.
Sempra earningsSRE
Sempra's Port Arthur LNG progress bears on whether ConocoPhillips can receive its contracted 9 million tonnes a year on schedule.
Track construction of the Port Arthur liquefaction units against Sempra's stated schedule: the first two are expected around the end of 2027 and in 2028, with the next two in 2030 and 2031. Progress on schedule would support the timing of ConocoPhillips' contracted LNG supply; delays would put that timing at risk. The takeaway is whether the supply schedule behind the contract remains credible.
WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC earningsWBI
WaterBridge gathers and handles water from Delaware Basin production, and its volumes and capacity show whether ConocoPhillips' wells can keep operating.
Read WaterBridge's water volumes against its available handling capacity. Rising volumes with capacity to spare would show that water services are keeping up with basin activity; volumes pressing against capacity, or unreliable service, could force producers to shut wells and interrupt ConocoPhillips' output. The takeaway is whether water handling is supporting production or becoming a shut-in risk.
ConocoPhillips earningsThis company
ConocoPhillips sells oil, gas and LNG at market-linked prices, and this report shows whether its production is turning into operating cash.
Read production, realized prices and operating cash flow together. More production with steady cash flow would show that added output is cushioning price pressure; more production with weaker cash flow would mean lower realized prices or higher costs are outweighing that output. The conclusion is whether ConocoPhillips is turning production growth into cash.
