Stock daily read

What happened with CHDN today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CHDN in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Most of Churchill Downs’ revenue comes from historical horse-racing wagering and casino gaming, rather than live racing. Customers wager through historical racing machines at its venues, and the company takes commissions from those wagers. Its casinos earn revenue from customers playing slot machines and table games, with hotels and dining adding revenue.

The company also owns Churchill Downs Racetrack, home of the Kentucky Derby. The event brings in admission, sponsorship and television-rights revenue alongside wagering commissions. Through TwinSpires, customers fund accounts and bet on horse races online; Churchill Downs also supplies the platform and operating services for other brands’ wagering businesses and earns commissions.

The business depends on customers visiting its venues and placing wagers, while sponsorships are important to the Kentucky Derby. State approvals and licenses determine where and how its gambling operations may run, and TwinSpires can accept wagers only in permitted states. In some jurisdictions, agreements and consents from horsemen’s groups are required to conduct racing or carry race broadcasts for wagering; agreements with other racetracks also determine which races it can offer.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CHDN’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CHDN says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • Boyd Gaming competes with Churchill Downs for regional customers’ slot-machine and table-game spending in states where both operate casinos. Boyd’s casino gaming revenue in those states is the line to watch for pressure on the same customer spending Churchill Downs relies on.

  • PENN Entertainment competes with Churchill Downs for regional gamblers, with both earning money from casino play, dining and hotel stays. Watch PENN’s physical-casino segments rather than its online business for signs of changes in customers’ gambling and hospitality spending.

  • Canterbury Park Holding Corporation 'New' both competes with Churchill Downs for horse-racing wagers and carries Churchill Downs races for its own customers to watch and bet on. Wagering on those races at Canterbury supports Churchill Downs’ fees from other wagering sites, making Canterbury’s simulcast program a sales channel as well as a competing betting offering.

Agenda

in 2 daysThu, Oct 22

  1. Time to be announced

    Boyd Gaming Corporation earningsBYD

    Boyd Gaming’s report will show whether customers are spending more or less on slots and table games in states where its casinos compete with Churchill Downs.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Churchill Downs Inc earningsThis company

    Churchill Downs earns from historical and live racing and casinos, and this report will show whether racing growth is adding profit while Gaming sustains its contribution.

  2. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Churchill Downs’ rate decision matters because it helps set borrowing costs, which can affect interest paid on its SOFR-linked debt and cash left for its racetracks, wagering and casinos.