Stock daily read

What happened with CAR today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

CAR in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Business and leisure travelers pay Avis Budget Group to use vehicles for their trips, with charges based on rental time and mileage and additional payments for optional services such as damage waivers and fuel options. Avis serves the premium market and Budget offers lower-cost rentals; together they generate most of the company’s revenue. The Americas account for most of the business, alongside operations across Europe and other international markets.

Zipcar serves members who want access to a car without owning one: they reserve self-service vehicles by the hour or day and pay rental and membership fees. Where the company does not operate directly, independent businesses run separately owned fleets under its licensed brands and pay royalties tied to rental income. These royalties are a small part of overall revenue.

The business depends on travel demand, especially airline passenger traffic, and on keeping its fleet rented at viable prices. Vehicle purchase costs and eventual resale prices shape fleet costs, while vehicle-backed borrowing helps fund fleet purchases. Airport locations require concession agreements, usually with revenue-based fees and minimum payment obligations. The company must also renew or retain those operating rights.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in CAR’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

CAR says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Privately held Enterprise Holdings is missing from this list but remains an important rival to watch as travel demand, rental pricing and fleet resale values shape Avis Budget’s results.

  • Hertz Global Holdings competes with Avis Budget for airport and other rentals across premium and value brands, so travel demand, rental prices and fleet resale values matter to both. Watch the rates charged to Hertz, Dollar and Thrifty customers and its used-vehicle sales for clues to Avis Budget’s rental revenue and fleet costs.

  • U-Haul Holding Company competes with Avis Budget’s Budget Truck for consumers paying to rent trucks for local and one-way household moves. Its truck-rental pricing and equipment availability show the competition Budget Truck faces for do-it-yourself movers.

  • Avis Budget relies on Verra Mobility Corporation to manage tolls and violations for its rental fleet, supporting the electronic-toll service it sells to renters. Verra’s toll-management business is the part to watch for this connection, rather than its government or parking services.

  • Wyndham Hotels & Resorts and Avis Budget both depend on U.S. travel demand: hotel operators pay Wyndham royalties tied to stays, while travelers pay Avis Budget to rent vehicles. Wyndham’s U.S. hotel royalties offer a travel-demand signal to watch alongside Avis Budget’s rental days.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. earningsWH

    Wyndham's report will show how U.S. hotel stays are faring, offering Avis Budget a signal about the travel demand that also drives car rentals.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s decision signals the direction of borrowing rates, which can raise or ease Avis Budget Group’s interest costs on variable-rate debt and debt it refinances.

in 10 daysFri, Oct 30

  1. Time to be announced

    Verra Mobility Corporation earningsVRRM

    Verra Mobility's toll-management business supports the electronic-toll service Avis Budget offers its renters.

in 14 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Avis Budget Group, Inc. earningsThis company

    Avis Budget's report will show whether rental days and revenue per day bring in enough to cover the cost of buying, holding and selling its fleet.

in 15 daysWed, Nov 4

  1. Time to be announced

    U-Haul Holding Company earningsUHAL

    U-Haul's report will show how its truck-rental prices and equipment availability shape the competition Budget Truck faces for moving customers.

in 16 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced

    Hertz Global Holdings, Inc earningsHTZ

    Hertz's rental rates and used-vehicle sales will give Avis Budget clues about the revenue and fleet-cost conditions facing their shared rental market.