Stock daily read

What happened with HTZ today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

HTZ in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

Hertz Global Holdings serves people who need a vehicle for travel, work or temporary replacement of their own car. Its subsidiaries operate airport and off-airport rental locations under the Hertz, Dollar and Thrifty brands. Customers pay for the rental period, sometimes with mileage charges, and can buy extras such as damage waivers and roadside assistance. The U.S. supplies most revenue, and airport locations account for the majority, tying demand closely to airline travel. Travel agencies and other third-party booking channels supply a significant share of reservations.

The company buys vehicles, earns rental income while using them, then sells them through wholesale and auction channels or to consumers through Hertz Car Sales. This cycle depends on buying enough suitable vehicles at workable prices, matching fleet size to rental demand and recovering value when vehicles are sold. Most of the fleet lacks manufacturer repurchase or guaranteed-depreciation protection. Hertz relies heavily on borrowing secured by vehicles to fund purchases, so falling used-car values can also reduce borrowing capacity or require additional cash or collateral.

U.S. law bars Hertz from renting or selling vehicles with unresolved federal safety recalls until the defects are repaired, which can leave part of its fleet unavailable.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in HTZ’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

HTZ says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Hertz’s results hinge on travel demand, rental pricing and fleet resale values; Enterprise Holdings and SIXT are also important rivals missing from this list.

  • Avis Budget and Hertz compete for paying renters at airports and other locations, so both face shifts in travel demand, rental prices and the cost of buying and reselling their fleets. Watch Avis Budget’s airport rental revenue and pricing for signs of the demand and price competition facing Hertz.

Agenda

in 9 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    Hertz’s rate decision matters because it sets the benchmark for borrowing costs, which can affect interest paid on its floating-rate loans and revolver.

in 15 daysTue, Nov 3

  1. Time to be announced

    Avis Budget Group, Inc. earningsCAR

    Avis Budget competes with Hertz for airport renters, and its report will show how shared travel demand and rental pricing are holding up.

in 17 daysThu, Nov 5

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Hertz Global Holdings, Inc earningsThis company

    Hertz earns from renting cars and selling retired fleet vehicles, and this report shows whether rental revenue is keeping up with the cost of fleet depreciation.