BRK-B in three months: buy, wait or sell?
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Berkshire Hathaway’s insurance businesses collect premiums from individuals, businesses and other insurers in exchange for covering losses. GEICO mainly insures personal cars, while other subsidiaries sell commercial insurance and take on risks from insurers through reinsurance. They earn underwriting profit when premiums exceed claims and operating costs. Money held before claims are paid, known as insurance float, joins shareholder capital in investments that earn interest and dividends. The stock portfolio is concentrated in relatively few companies, and insurance returns depend on both investment income and the cost of claims.
Manufacturing, services and retailing together bring in most of Berkshire’s revenue. Customers pay these subsidiaries for goods and services: Clayton Homes sells homes and provides financing, McLane supplies retailers and restaurants, and Pilot sells fuel through Pilot and Flying J travel centers and wholesale channels. McLane’s high-volume distribution business operates on thin margins and gets a substantial share of sales from Walmart, 7-Eleven and Yum! Brands.
Berkshire also owns BNSF Railway, which charges shippers to move freight, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy, which earns mainly from supplying and transporting electricity and natural gas. Freight earnings depend on shipping demand and rates; the rail and energy networks require continuing capital investment. Regulated utilities need approval for customer rates, so they cannot necessarily pass every cost on to customers.
Insurance regulation limits permitted activities, investments and payments of dividends to Berkshire, constraining how freely it can move capital. Within reinsurance, NICO relies on its agreement with Insurance Australia Group for a significant portion of its annual premiums.
The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.
Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.
Berkshire Hathaway has no single operating twin across insurance, invested capital, rail, energy and manufacturing, and GEICO’s major privately held rivals State Farm and USAA are missing from this list.
Progressive competes nationwide with Berkshire’s GEICO for drivers paying to insure their private-passenger cars. Watch Progressive’s personal-auto premiums for a comparison with GEICO’s policy growth: Progressive ranked second in this U.S. market by 2024 written premiums, ahead of third-ranked GEICO.
Union Pacific is Berkshire’s BNSF’s primary rail rival in the U.S. West; both earn money hauling customers’ freight. Its freight revenue offers a comparison for BNSF’s exposure to shipping volumes and rail rates, while BNSF’s 2025 profit improvement came from lower operating expenses rather than revenue growth.
Allstate competes directly with Berkshire’s GEICO for private-passenger auto policyholders, selling through both its exclusive agents and direct channels. Watch the reach of its Affordable, Simple, Connected auto product, offered in 43 states at year-end 2025, as a concrete measure of the offering GEICO faces.
Markel Group competes with Berkshire for specialty insurance customers and, like Berkshire, combines insurance premiums and capital investing with independently run noninsurance businesses. Its specialty underwriting profit and public-equity returns provide two separate comparisons for Berkshire’s insurance-and-investment model.
Chubb competes with Berkshire’s primary insurers for businesses and individuals buying commercial, specialty and personal property-and-casualty coverage. Watch its P&C underwriting income rather than total earnings, which also include investment and life-insurance income, for the closer comparison with Berkshire’s competing insurers.
Travelers both competes with Berkshire for commercial and personal insurance premiums and pays Berkshire to take on part of its insured risks through reinsurance. At December 31, 2025, Travelers had $435 million recoverable from Berkshire under those arrangements, making its reinsurance balances a direct ownership watchpoint.
Arch Capital competes with Berkshire both to insure specialty risks directly and to take on risks from insurers worldwide in return for reinsurance premiums. Its U.S. specialty insurance business is the closer comparison for Berkshire’s primary insurers; its worldwide reinsurance business overlaps with Berkshire’s reinsurance group.
Everest Group competes with Berkshire’s reinsurance group for premiums from insurers worldwide seeking to transfer property-and-casualty risks. Watch its reinsurance pricing and business volume against Berkshire’s property reinsurance, where increased competition and lower rates reduced volumes in 2025.
RenaissanceRe competes with Berkshire to assume insurers’ property-catastrophe, casualty and specialty risks in exchange for reinsurance premiums. Its Property and Casualty and Specialty underwriting results are the relevant comparisons; fees from managing outside investors’ capital are a separate source of income.
W.R. Berkley competes with Berkshire’s independently managed commercial insurers and reinsurance businesses for customers with specialized risks. Its locally focused businesses make commercial insurance premiums the main comparison, while its Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment provides a separate view of competition for transferred risks.
AIG competes with Berkshire’s primary insurers for premiums from commercial and specialty insurance customers in U.S. and international markets. Its North America Commercial and International Commercial results offer a more focused comparison than overall earnings, which also include personal insurance and investment income.
Occidental’s oil-and-gas earnings reach Berkshire through its shareholding, accounted for using the equity method, rather than through operating rivalry. Berkshire also bought Occidental’s OxyChem chemicals business on January 2, 2026, so watch Occidental’s continuing oil-and-gas business separately from OxyChem, whose results now enter Berkshire’s accounts.
Howmet Aerospace competes with Berkshire’s Precision Castparts to sell aerospace castings, forgings, rings and fasteners to customers. Watch Howmet’s aircraft-engine components business for a comparison with PCC’s production exposure: PCC says growth depends on rising aerospace output, and customers sometimes delay deliveries.
Hartford competes with Berkshire’s primary insurers for U.S. businesses paying to cover property damage and liability risks. Its Business Insurance earned premiums, rather than its group-benefits or fund businesses, provide the relevant revenue comparison.
Boeing’s aircraft production matters to Berkshire because Boeing is a significant buyer of metal components from Precision Castparts and sells commercial jets mainly to airlines worldwide. Watch production increases and delivery-delay requests: PCC’s growth depends on aerospace output rising, and its customers sometimes ask to postpone deliveries.
GE Aerospace’s engine production feeds demand at Berkshire’s Precision Castparts, a significant component supplier to its aircraft-engine business. Watch new-engine manufacturing rather than treating all GE revenue alike: GE also earns money maintaining engines and selling spare parts over their long working lives.
Loews overlaps with Berkshire in two businesses: CNA sells commercial insurance to businesses, while Boardwalk charges customers for natural-gas transportation and storage, much as Berkshire’s pipeline businesses do. Watch CNA’s commercial insurance results and Boardwalk’s transportation-and-storage earnings separately rather than using Loews’ hotel business as a comparison.
Kraft Heinz’s food-and-beverage earnings affect Berkshire through its approximately 27.5% ownership, not through operating competition. Watch both the food business’s earnings and the carrying value of Berkshire’s stake: Berkshire recorded an impairment on this investment in 2025.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. competes directly with Berkshire’s non-admitted insurers to cover unusual or hard-to-place risks for U.S. businesses, collecting premiums through brokers. Its small- and medium-sized commercial accounts are the useful comparison; commercial coverage supplied 97% of its 2025 gross written premiums.
Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. earningsKNSL
Kinsale Capital Group insures hard-to-place risks for small and midsize businesses, so its growth shows the competition Berkshire’s non-admitted insurers face.
Watch growth in Kinsale’s commercial insurance business, which competes with Berkshire’s non-admitted insurers for hard-to-place business risks. Faster growth would show strong demand for this cover through brokers and more pressure from a rival for premiums; slower growth would signal less momentum at Kinsale, not establish Berkshire’s underwriting result.
Union Pacific Corp. earningsUNP
Union Pacific’s freight revenue shows demand and pricing for rail shipments in the western U.S., where it competes with Berkshire’s BNSF.
Watch Union Pacific’s freight revenue and whether changes reflect shipment volume or rates. It competes with BNSF for western U.S. freight, though their routes and freight mixes differ. Growing revenue would suggest a more supportive shared market; falling revenue would point to pressure on demand or pricing that could also weigh on BNSF.
Everest Group, Ltd. earningsEG
Everest Group takes property-and-casualty risks from insurers worldwide, and its reinsurance pricing and volume show the competition Berkshire’s reinsurance group faces.
Read Everest’s reinsurance pricing alongside the amount of business it writes. Firm prices with steady volume would suggest competition has not materially weakened its ability to win business; falling prices or lower volume would point to tougher competition for risks insurers transfer, potentially pressuring Berkshire’s reinsurance pricing or volume too.
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Berkshire earns investment income by investing insurance float and its substantial cash and Treasury bills, so changes in interest rates affect what those funds earn as they are reinvested.
Expected4.0%Last release4.0%
If it comes in above expectations
Higher rates can lift income as Berkshire reinvests cash and Treasury bills, but may also raise borrowing costs for businesses with debt that reprices or new borrowing needs.
If it comes in below expectations
Lower rates can reduce income as Berkshire reinvests cash and Treasury bills, but may ease borrowing costs for businesses with debt that reprices or new borrowing needs.
Howmet Aerospace Inc. earningsHWM
Howmet Aerospace sells aircraft-engine components that overlap with Berkshire’s Precision Castparts, so its results show conditions in a market the two share.
Watch growth in Howmet’s aircraft-engine components business, not its total revenue as a stand-in for Precision Castparts. Faster growth would indicate stronger demand in the shared market for castings, forgings, rings and fasteners; slower growth could mean weaker demand or tougher competition, putting more pressure on PCC’s related business.
The Kraft Heinz Company earningsKHC
Kraft Heinz’s food-business results affect Berkshire through its shareholding, not through Berkshire’s own operating revenue.
Watch earnings from Kraft Heinz’s food business, separately from the carrying value of Berkshire’s stake. Improving earnings would show stronger operations in the business Berkshire owns; weaker earnings would point to pressure on that operating foundation. Other factors also affect the stake’s value, so this report alone cannot establish how that value will change.
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY earningsThis company
Berkshire Hathaway earns from insurance, railroads, energy and other businesses, and this report shows whether their operations support the overall result or investment swings dominate it.
Separate insurance underwriting profit and operating results from the railroad, energy and other businesses from investment gains. Stronger underwriting and operations mean the businesses themselves earned more; if they weaken while investment gains support the overall result, treat that volatility as distinct from day-to-day business performance.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation earningsOXY
Occidental’s oil-and-gas results affect Berkshire through its shareholding; Berkshire acquired OxyChem, so that business is a separate matter.
Watch earnings from Occidental’s continuing oil-and-gas business, not OxyChem, which it sold to Berkshire. Stronger oil-and-gas earnings would support the operating business behind Berkshire’s Occidental stake; weaker earnings would mean more pressure on that investment. OxyChem’s results belong in Berkshire’s own operating results and should be considered separately.