Stock daily read

What happened with ATLO today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
Moving with the market?
Uses market moves and trading volume to assess what drove the change
What to watch next
The next thing that could change the call, and what to look for

No read yet

Uses news and trading volume to explain the day’s move and how it relates to the market.

Investment outlook

ATLO in three months: buy, wait or sell?

Stop guessing. Get the call, a three-month target price, the best and worst cases, and a source for every claim.

In the report
  • Buy / Wait / Sell rating
  • 3-month target price
  • Bear · Base · Bull
  • vs. the market

Company

Company overview

AMES National Corp is a bank holding company whose six banks operate entirely in Iowa. They take deposits from local businesses, individuals and public entities, and lend to businesses, farms and households. The banks also hold investments, mainly bonds. Borrowers and investment issuers pay interest; after interest paid to depositors and other lenders, the remainder—net interest income—is the largest component of earnings. Wealth management and account services provide additional fee income.

The business depends on keeping funding costs below the interest earned on loans and investments, and on borrowers’ ability to repay. Its lending is tied to Iowa’s economy, with substantial exposure to agriculture both directly and through businesses that depend on it. Commodity prices, farm input costs, weather and trade policies therefore matter to customers’ ability to service their loans.

The parent company receives substantially all its operating cash from dividends and other payments from its banks. Federal and state rules limit those dividends, including prohibiting payments that would leave a bank undercapitalized.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

Know what’s buried in ATLO’s filings before you buy

The risk section is the longest, dullest part of the filing. This keeps only what can really hurt you: where it hits, how hard, when it plays out.

Sorted into
  • Happening now
  • Could go wrong
  • Built in

Moat

ATLO says it has a moat. Does it hold up?

Every company claims an edge. Each one is checked against hard numbers like margins and returns: which hold, and which line gives way first.

Each edge rated
  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Limited
  • Unproven

Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer
  • First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. competes with AMES National Corp for central Iowa customers with a similar mix of deposits, business and agricultural loans, and wealth services. Watch its loan and deposit rates and wealth-service pricing for pressure on Ames’s ability to retain those customers.

  • U.S. Bancorp competes directly with AMES National Corp through U.S. Bank, which takes deposits and lends to consumers and businesses in Ames’s central Iowa trade areas. Its consumer and small-business banking is the part to watch for this local rivalry, rather than its broader payment and investment businesses.

  • Wells Fargo competes with AMES National Corp for consumer and business loans and deposits through offices in Ames’s central Iowa trade areas. Ames identifies larger banks’ ability to finance bigger commercial customers as a competitive advantage, making Wells Fargo’s business lending especially relevant.

  • Great Southern Bancorp Inc competes with AMES National Corp by gathering deposits and earning interest on business and residential loans in Des Moines and other Iowa markets. Watch its Iowa deposits and deposit rates for competition over the money that funds Ames’s lending.

  • HBT Financial, Inc. and AMES National Corp both serve Iowa borrowers and offer farmland-related services, exposing them to regional business and agricultural conditions. HBT’s lending and farmland-management business offers a comparison for Ames, but HBT serves Illinois and eastern Iowa while Ames operates entirely in Iowa.

Agenda

tomorrowWed, Oct 21

  1. Time to be announced

    Great Southern Bancorp Inc earningsGSBC

    Great Southern Bancorp’s report can show how Iowa banks are competing for the deposits that fund Ames’s lending.

in 6 daysMon, Oct 26

  1. Time to be announced

    HBT Financial, Inc. earningsHBT

    HBT Financial, Inc.’s report offers a read on nearby agricultural borrowers, a group that also matters to Ames’s Iowa loan portfolio.

in 8 daysWed, Oct 28

  1. 2:00 PMET

    Fed Interest Rate Decision

    The Fed’s rate decision signals how borrowing rates may change, affecting what Ames National earns on loans and securities and pays for deposits and borrowings.

in 86 daysThu, Jan 14

  1. Time to be announced

    Wells Fargo & Co. earningsWFC

    Wells Fargo’s report can show how large banks are pursuing business loans, a market where Ames faces competition for larger commercial customers.