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What happened with ASND today?

Why it moved
Explains possible causes using the day’s news and filings
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ASND in three months: buy, wait or sell?

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Company

Company overview

Ascendis Pharma A/S earns most of its revenue from YORVIPATH, a treatment for adults with hypoparathyroidism, and SKYTROFA, a once-weekly treatment for growth hormone deficiency. YORVIPATH is the larger revenue source, and the United States is its largest revenue market. Both products use its TransCon technology, which temporarily attaches a drug to a carrier and releases the active drug over time after injection.

The company sells through its own commercial teams in the United States and selected European markets, with specialty pharmacies supporting U.S. distribution. Doctors prescribe the medicines; patients’ access depends heavily on government programs and private insurers covering much of the cost. Ascendis relies on outside manufacturers to make its medicines, with some critical components available from only one supplier.

Licensing and development collaborations provide a smaller revenue stream. Teijin holds rights in Japan and VISEN in Greater China, while Novo Nordisk licenses TransCon for metabolic-disease products and specified cardiovascular products. These arrangements provide license payments and development-related income, with further milestones and royalties dependent on partners’ progress and sales. Ascendis also develops additional rare-disease and cancer treatments, but its other candidates are not approved for commercial sale. It may market approved medicines only for uses within their approved labeling.

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Source: SEC filing

Red flags

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Moat

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Related companies

  • Competition
  • Shared drivers
  • Supplier
  • Customer

Ascendis Pharma’s results depend chiefly on YORVIPATH uptake and SKYTROFA sales, while Teijin and VISEN extend its endocrine portfolio into Japan and Greater China.

  • BioMarin competes for achondroplasia patients with VOXZOGO, while its patent and exclusivity challenges can affect the launch prospects of Ascendis’s TransCon CNP. Watch both VOXZOGO sales and developments in BioMarin’s legal challenges to gauge the commercial and launch hurdles facing Ascendis.

  • MBX Biosciences is developing canvuparatide, a long-acting treatment that converts into active parathyroid hormone and could compete directly with Ascendis’s YORVIPATH for hypoparathyroidism patients.

  • Novo Nordisk both competes with Ascendis’s SKYTROFA through its weekly growth-hormone treatment SOGROYA and pays Ascendis to use its TransCon technology. Progress on their once-monthly semaglutide candidate for obesity and type 2 diabetes matters for Ascendis’s potential milestone payments and future sales royalties.

  • OPKO Health receives a share of profits from NGENLA, the weekly growth-hormone treatment that competes with Ascendis’s SKYTROFA and is marketed globally by Pfizer. OPKO’s payments under that arrangement offer a view of rival growth-hormone revenue, but also include Pfizer’s Genotropin rather than NGENLA alone.

  • BridgeBio Pharma’s late-stage infigratinib candidate could compete with Ascendis’s TransCon CNP for the same achondroplasia patients. Watch its clinical progress in achondroplasia, rather than BridgeBio’s sales of Attruby for a separate heart condition.

  • Pfizer sells weekly NGENLA and daily Genotropin to growth-hormone-deficiency patients who could instead receive Ascendis’s SKYTROFA. Sales developments for those two treatments show the competition facing SKYTROFA more directly than Pfizer’s overall revenue.

  • Tyra Biosciences is developing oral drugs targeting FGFR proteins for achondroplasia and other skeletal conditions, overlapping with Ascendis’s TransCon CNP programs. Progress on dabogratinib in skeletal disorders is the part of Tyra’s pipeline most relevant to that competition.

  • Royalty Pharma funded Ascendis upfront in exchange for a share of U.S. sales: 9.15% of net SKYTROFA revenue and 3.0% of net YORVIPATH revenue under capped royalty agreements. Receipts from these rights track the two drugs’ U.S. sales, not Ascendis’s profits.

Agenda

in 6 daysMon, Oct 26

  1. Time to be announced

    BioMarin Pharmaceuticals Inc earningsBMRN

    BioMarin’s report will show how VOXZOGO sales and related legal developments shape the hurdles Ascendis Pharma A faces in bringing TransCon CNP to people with achondroplasia.

in 22 daysWed, Nov 11

  1. Time to be announced
    Major

    Ascendis Pharma A/S earningsThis company

    Ascendis Pharma A’s report will show whether sales of YORVIPATH and SKYTROFA can grow into cash after the costs of commercializing both drugs.